MACAU SLOWS BUT STILL SHOULD BE A RECORD

On track for new monthly record

With the 3rd and 4th week of October now in, we think October will squeak out a gain off of a tough comp and set a record for monthly GGR.  We are projecting flat to up 4% for the month.  Average daily table revenue actually increased 7% YoY the past two weeks.  We continue to believe that double digit YoY growth could resume in November and December for two reasons:  easier comparisons and the Beijing government handover.

MACAU SLOWS BUT STILL SHOULD BE A RECORD - macau1

The past two weeks were good ones for LVS.  Market share has gone from 19.7% to 20.8%, well above trend.  Assuming normal hold, we expect LVS to remain over 20% and slowly increase its share over the coming year up to 22-24%.  This is likely above consensus of around 20%.  Wynn has had an awful month with market share of only 9.5%, mostly due to low hold we're sure but we do expect the property to be a market share loser until Wynn Cotai opens.  MGM also struggled this month.  MPEL is pretty much in-line with the trend.

MACAU SLOWS BUT STILL SHOULD BE A RECORD - macau2