PSS: Thoughts Into the Quarter

Here’s our detailed EPS/Margin Walk highlighting the puts and takes to watch out for vs. last year. Fundamentally, this is a name that will be tough to ignore in 2Q/3Q.

Here’s our margin walk for PSS, which reports after the close tomorrow. This name has been one of our favorites for a while fundamentally (Rubell is one of the best CEOs in retail), but the price has not aligned with our timing/sizing models. I’ll let Keith speak separately on the price, but I think we’re getting closer to the point where this story is tough to ignore. I think PSS will start beating EPS expectations more consistently, and that estimates for the upcoming year will prove too low (we’ve got EPS growth of 10% vs. the Street at -2%). Most of the juice in the model starts in 2Q/3Q – when the duplicative DC comes off line at the end of Q1, Saucony and Sperry benefit from investments made in ’08, direct sourced and branded product hit more of a critical mass in the stores, and we start to anniversary poor P&L and Cash Flow numbers. In the meantime, I think the quarter tomorrow looks good relative to expectations (i.e. the number should be abysmal, but ‘less toxic’ than the Street is modeling). See our overview below and call me for any follow up on the assumptions.

Casey Flavin

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