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I leaned longer again on the open, covering CAT and buying some of our favorite long ideas. The signal is the signal. I think I’ve been as flexible adhering to leaning long or short in the last 3 weeks as I have all year.

Across risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:

1.       Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1463

2.       Immediate-term TRADE support = 1448

3.       Intermediate-term TREND support = 1419

In other words, what was resistance yesterday (1448) is now support. That changed, so I did. And there are no rules against selling some at 1463 ahead of tomorrow’s employment report either. That’s the market we are in. Romney just changed the probabilities of Obama winning too.

#EarningsSlowing is bearish. Potential for political change (was with Obama in 2009 too) is bullish.

Keep managing the risk of this 1419-1474 (Bernanke Top) range.

Keith McCullough


The Romney Rally: S&P 500 Levels, Refreshed - kmchart1