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Now with RevPAR underperforming, Baccarat looks like the only reliable Vegas metric

  • The chart below shows monthly RevPAR change as reported by the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority for all of Las Vegas.  We’ve also added our trend-based projections adjusted for seasonality out to June of 2013.
  • Although not shown on the chart, Q3 Strip RevPAR is likely to decline YoY and could fall Vegas-wide as well.
  • MGM management previously had indicated that Q3 was a blip but we think Q4 could be flattish and even negative.  Management seemed less constructive on the outlook last week.  RevPAR and Baccarat were the last important metrics that were reliably positive.  Looks like Baccarat will hold down the fort solo.