THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 4, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or -0.54% downside to 1399 and 0.74% upside to 1417. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/31 NYSE 1174
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -1294
  • VOLUME: on 08/31 NYSE 746.07
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 45.80%
  • VIX:  as of 08/31 was at 17.47
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -2.02%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -25.34%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/31 closed at 1.84
    • Up from the day prior at 1.42

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 34.33
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.57%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.55%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.35
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.33

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:58am: Markit US PMI Final, Aug., est. 51.9
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, Aug., est. 50.0 (prior 49.8)
  • 10am: ISM Prices Paid, Aug., est. 46.0 (prior 39.5)
  • 10am: Construction Spending M/m, July, est. 0.4% (prior 0.4%)
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $32b 3-mo, $28b 6-mo bills
  • 4pm: USDA Crop-condition reports

GOVERNMENT:

    • Washington Week Ahead: Democrats to Rally for Obama in N.C.
    • Democratic National Convention: Re-nomination of Obama and Biden, speakers include First Lady Michelle Obama
    • House, Senate not in session
    • Clinton seeks unified Asean front to ease disputes w/ China

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Merkel/Monti lead diplomatic push as Draghi plan takes shape
  • EU outlook cut by Moody’s on Germany, France, U.K. risks
  • Manufacturing in U.S. probably stagnated amid global slowdown
  • Light-vehicle sales rate may have climbed to 14.2m in August
  • Valeant to purchase Medicis Pharmaceutical for $2.6b
  • P&G directors face own challenges while keeping tabs on McDonald
  • Euro-Area July producer-price inflation holds at 2 1/2-yr low
  • Lufthansa cabin crew expand German strikes in salary dispute
  • ‘Posession’ claims top film slot on sales of $21.3m
  • Intel, eBay, Pandora present at Citi Tech conference

EARNINGS:

    • Smithfield Foods (SFD) 6am, $0.45
    • Campbell Soup (CPB) 7:30am, $0.38 - Preview
    • Finisar (FNSR) 4pm, $0.14
    • Francesca’s Holdings (FRAN) 4:01pm, $0.24
    • Forest City Enterprises (FCE/A) 4:02pm, $0.06
    • Guidewire Software (GWRE) 4:05pm, $0.04
    • Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) After-mkt

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL – never, in human history, has > $100 Oil not perpetuated real (inflation adj) growth slowing. Maybe this time is different. Its probably not. Yield Spread (10s-2s) moved back to +133bps wide this past wk, only 10bps away from its slowest growth (implied) since 2008.

  • Cotton Glut Extending Slump as Levi’s Costs Slide: Commodities
  • German Power Swings at 7-Year Low Curb Trading: Energy Markets
  • Dockwise Profits Aided by U.S. as Mine Sweepers Deploy: Freight
  • Soybeans, Meal Climb to Records on U.S. Drought, Stimulus Bets
  • Oil Advances to Highest Price in a Week on Stimulus Speculation
  • Gold Seen Rising on Prospects for Further Central-Bank Stimulus
  • Copper Seen Falling as EU Credit Rating Fuels Crisis Concern
  • Iron Ore Trading Rose to Record Last Month as Prices Plunged
  • Cocoa Rebounds as Supplies May Lag Behind Demand; Sugar Advances
  • Record Gold Sales to Iran Profit Lira Bondholders: Turkey Credit
  • India Rules Out Duty-Free Import of Raw Sugar on Local Supplies
  • U.S. Shale Glut Means Gas Shortage for Mexican Industry: Energy
  • Obama Gets Fossil-Fuels Boost After Green-Jobs Revolution Fades
  • Soybeans, Meal Climb to Records on Drought
  • Iron Ore Drops to Near Three-Year Low on China Growth Concerns
  • U.K. Lawmakers Urge 2015 End for EU Sugar Quotas Capping Output

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – lower-highs across the board in European squeeze tapes as the markets w/ less short interest (FTSE, Swiss, etc) fall first this morn; how many more rumors, plans, etc do they have? We will see, but the FTSE just snapped my 5781 TRADE line.

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ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – somewhere in between golf and time w/ the kids this weekend, China reminded us that PMI sub 50 remains and that they won’t deliver the stimuli drugs w/ Oil at $116/barrel. Shanghai down another -0.75% overnight (-17% since May).

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team