THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 8, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 26 points or -1.45% downside to 1381 and 0.40% upside to 1407. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


SENTIMENT – two beauty signals registering in the last 24hrs w/ the VIX testing long-term TAIL support (14-15) again and the II Bull/Bear Spread spikes back up to +1810bps wide to the bull side (Bears have been eviscerated from the spread, down to 25.5% vs 27.7% last wk). Big drawdowns in the last 5yrs happen after all the weak shorts have been squeezed out. 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/07 NYSE 888
    • Up versus the prior day’s trading of 765
  • VOLUME: on 08/07 NYSE 727.94
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 12.48%
  • VIX:  as of 08/07 was at 15.99
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.25%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -31.67%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/07 closed at 1.33
    • Down from the day prior at 1.54 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 34
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.62%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.63%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.36
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.37 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates) 

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, week Aug. 3 (prior 0.2%)
  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, 2Q P, est. 1.4% (prior -0.9%)
  • 8:30am: Unit Labor Costs, 2Q P, est. 0.5% (prior 1.3%)
  • 10:30am: DoE Inventories
  • 11am: U.S. Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 2/15/2036 to 5/15/2042 range
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $24b 10-year notes 

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • FDA advisory panel meets to discuss uses, limitations of in vitro dissolution testing, receive update on draft guidance for industry on biosimilars, 8am
    • IRS holds meeting on proposed regulations, fees imposed by Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act on issuers, 10am
    • International Trade Commission to vote on Ferrovanadium, Nitrided Vanadium imports from Russia, 1pm
    • Air Line Pilots Association holds annual safety forum, 8:30am 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • McDonald’s sales growth may be slowest since 2009
  • Greece outlook revised to negative by S&P; ratings affirmed
  • Disney profit rises 24% on “Avengers” as rev falls short
  • Standard Chartered probe said to require up to $700m
  • Knight Losses Spur Tighter Automated-Trading Rules From SEC
  • J.C. Penney puts at record vs peers before earnings
  • Ford expands into China heavy truck market with acquisition
  • German exports fell in June as crisis curbed euro-area demand
  • King seen cutting U.K. outlook as BOE stays open to stimulus
  • Apple says Samsung document shows application icons copy IPhone
  • Rio Tinto 1H net beats est.
  • ING Groep 2Q net misses est.

EARNINGS:

    • Lamar Advertising (LAMR) 6am, $0.15
    • DISH Network (DISH) 6am, $0.66
    • Air Canada (AC/A CN) 6am, C$(0.01)
    • EchoStar (SATS) 6am, $0.08
    • NRG Energy (NRG) 6:45am, $0.18
    • PPL (PPL) 6:53am, $0.41
    • Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) 7am, $(0.35)
    • BCE (BCE CN) 7am, C$0.81
    • International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) 7am, $1.03
    • Carlyle Group (CG) 7am, $(0.04)
    • HollyFrontier (HFC) 7am, $2.24
    • Molex (MOLX) 7:30am, $0.38
    • Apollo Investment (AINV) 7:30am, $0.21
    • Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP) 7:30am, $0.34
    • Ralph Lauren (RL) 8am, $1.78
    • Macy’s (M) 8am, $0.64; Preview
    • Computer Sciences (CSC) 8:13am, $0.22
    • Liberty Interactive (LINTA) 8:30am, $0.24
    • Finning International (FTT CN) 8:55am, C$0.46
    • Liberty Media - Liberty Capital (LMCA) 10:45am, $0.73
    • Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) 4pm, $0.18
    • Onex (OCX CN) 4pm, NA
    • MEMC Electronics (WFR) 4:01pm, ($0.04)
    • Jack in the Box (JACK) 4:01pm, $0.35
    • MBIA (MBI) 4:01pm, $0.07
    • News Corp. (NWSA) 4:02pm, $0.32
    • Monster Beverage (MNST) 4:05pm, $0.61
    • Keyera (KEY CN) 4:05pm, $0.40
    • Canaccord Financial (CF CN) 4:05pm, (C$0.04)
    • Universal Display (PANL) 4:05pm, $0.25
    • CenturyLink (CTL) 4:12pm, $0.62
    • Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) 4:14pm, $1.43
    • Kinross Gold (K CN) 4:15pm, $0.17
    • Continental Resources (CLR) 4:15pm, $0.74
    • Yamana Gold (YRI CN) 4:29pm, $0.21
    • Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (CAR-U CN) 5:05pm, C$0.36
    • Integrys Energy Group (TEG) 5:07pm, $0.41
    • Sun Life Financial (SLF CN) 5:10pm, C$0.08
    • Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) 5:15pm, $0.28 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COPPER – the Doctor says he’s out; Copper testing its 1st duration of resistance (3.43 TRADE resistance) and failed this morning, moving lower by -0.7% after the 10yr UST yield backed off yesterday’s highs. Another #GrowthSlowing signal born out of $111 Oil. 

  • Coal to Drop as Steel Output Slows in BHP Setback: Commodities
  • Gas May Revisit $2 as Drop in Supply Glut Slows: Energy Markets
  • Clive Said to Miss July Commodities Rally as Brevan Gains
  • Sugar Reserve in India at Four-Year High Set to Help Exports
  • Rubber Tumbles to Lowest in Almost Three Years on Slowdown Risk
  • Oil Drops From Two-Month High in New York as U.S. Demand Eases
  • Soybeans, Corn Slide as Rain May Revive Drought-Stricken Crops
  • Gold Declines in London as Stronger Dollar Curbs Investor Demand
  • Copper Falls as Factory Report May Stoke Debt-Crisis Concern
  • Sugar Falls to One-Month Low as Supplies Improve; Cocoa Climbs
  • Electricity Seen Overstating China Slowdown as Services Rise
  • Copper Traders Make $839 Million Bet on China Boosting Demand
  • Alpha Posts $2.23 Billion Quarterly Loss After Taking Charges
  • Gold in Euros Seen Climbing to All-Time High: Technical Analysis
  • Commodities Daybook: Coal Set to Slump as European Demand Wanes
  • Taiwan Sugar Buys 23,000 Tons Corn, 12,000 Tons Soybeans
  • Zinc, Lead Traders Probably Added to Bets on Falling Prices

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – Chinese stocks agree; after a paltry “rally” on no volume, the Shanghai Comp closed up, barely, +0.16% last night – but, more importantly, failed at an our immediate-term TRADE line of 2166 resistance; watching that and KOSPI, very closely here. Haven’t been short anything Asia on the meltup, thank god.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team