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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 25, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -0.70% downside to 1329 and 0.80% upside to 1349. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/24 NYSE -1477
    • Up versus the prior day’s trading of -1601
  • VOLUME: on 07/24 NYSE 808.38
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 8.81%
  • VIX:  as of 07/24 was at 20.47
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 9.94%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -12.52%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/24 closed at 2.08
    • Up from the day prior at 1.23 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.43%
  • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.39%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.22
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.17 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, July 20 (prior 16.9%)
  • 10am: New Home Sales, June, est. 372k (prior 369k)
  • 10am: New Home Sales M/m, June, est. 0.8% (prior 7.6%)
  • 10:30am: DOE inventories
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4.5b-$5.5b notes due 8/15/20-5/15/22
  • 11am: U.S. to sell $35b 5-yr notes 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • Senate Finance holds hearing on education tax Incentives, 10am
    • Senate Commerce holds hearing on short-supply prescription drugs, 2:30pm
    • House Education and Workforce Committee holds hearing on proposals to strengthen National Labor Relations Act, 10am
    • Senate Appropriations hears from Education Secretary Arne Duncan on effects of budget cuts on education, 10am
    • Senate Foreign Relations holds hearing on increasing trade with Africa, 3pm
    • House Armed Services panel holds hearing on military capabilities for cyber operations, 3:30pm
    • Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner presents annual report of FSOB at House Financial Services hearing, 9:30am
    • Peregrine Financial’s collapse amid shortfall in customer funds will be examined at House Agriculture hearing on oversight of swaps,, with CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler, 10am
    • Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., speaks at U.S. Chamber of Commerce event on financial regulatory reform, 1pm 

WHAT TO WATCH:  

  • Apple shrs tumble as earnings, forecasts miss analyst ests.
  • Netflix plunges on guarded outlook for new 2012 subscribers
  • Ancestry.com said to discuss buyout with Providence
  • New U.S. home purchases may have risen to 371k annual rate in June, most since April 2010
  • C.R. Bard told by jury to pay $5.5m over vaginal-mesh implant
  • Food inflation may rise 4.5% in 2013 on worst drought since ’50s
  • Wells Fargo ranks No. 1 in hardest-to-value securities: S&P
  • Perella said to be hired in Morgan Stanley, Citigroup price rift
  • U.K. GDP falls most in 3+ yrs; 2Q GDP falls 0.7%, median forecast 0.2% decline
  • German business confidence fell 3rd straight month in July to lowest since March 2010
  • Spanish, Italian notes rise on bets ECB may boost rescue fund
  • IMF says China downside risks significant as growth slows
  • Japan June exports fall 2.3% Y/y vs. est. 3% drop
  • Nintendo 1Q net loss 17.23b yen, analyst est. 16.4b yen loss
  • ECB’s Nowotny sees arguments for giving ESM banking license 

EARNINGS:

    • TE Connectivity (TEL) 6am, $0.78
    • WellPoint (WLP) 6am, $2.08; Preview
    • Encana (ECA CN) 6am, $0.19; Preview
    • Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) 6am, $1.16
    • Cenovus Energy (CVE CN) 6am, C$0.53
    • Praxair (PX) 6:02am, $1.42
    • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) 6:30am, $0.50
    • Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) 6:30am, $0.84
    • Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) 6:30am, $0.77
    • Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) 6:30am, $0.36
    • Tupperware Brands (TUP) 7am, $1.27
    • General Dynamics (GD) 7am, $1.74
    • Motorola Solutions (MSI) 7am, $0.69
    • US Airways Group (LCC) 7am, $1.55; Preview
    • AOL (AOL) 7am, $0.23
    • PepsiCo (PEP) 7am, $1.10
    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) 7am, $1.61
    • Rockwell Automation (ROK) 7am, $1.31
    • Lorillard (LO) 7am, $2.32
    • Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ) 7am, $0.60
    • Ford Motor Co (F) 7am, $0.29; Preview
    • Corning (GLW) 7am, $0.31
    • Nielsen Holdings NV (NLSN) 7am, $0.41
    • RadioShack (RSH) 7am, $0.04
    • MeadWestvaco (MWV) 7:05am, $0.39
    • Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd (CP CN) 7:30am, C$0.85
    • Caterpillar (CAT) 7:30am, $2.29
    • Hess (HES) 7:30am, $1.38
    • IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI) 7:30am, $0.71
    • Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY) 7:30am, $0.48; Preview
    • Southern Co (SO) 7:30am, $0.68
    • JetBlue Airways (JBLU) 7:30am, $0.16
    • Airgas (ARG) 7:30am, $1.15
    • T Rowe Price Group (TROW) 7:30am, $0.81
    • Delta Air Lines (DAL) 7:30am, $0.68
    • Boeing Co (BA) 7:30am, $1.13; Preview
    • Omnicare (OCR) N , 7:31am, $0.79
    • ConocoPhillips (COP) 8am, $1.19; Preview
    • Level 3 Communications (LVLT) 8am, $(0.23)
    • Cooper Industries PLC (CBE) 8am, $1.12
    • Loblaw Ltd (L CN) 8am, $0.60
    • Canadian National Railway Co (CNR CN) 8am, C$1.47
    • Akamai Technologies (AKAM) 4pm, $0.37
    • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) 4pm, $0.60
    • Torchmark (TMK) 4pm, $1.30
    • LSI (LSI) 4:01pm, $0.17
    • Varian Medical Systems (VAR) 4:01pm, $0.93
    • AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 4:01pm, $1.34
    • Owens-Illinois (OI) 4:02pm, $0.76
    • Stericycle (SRCL) 4:02pm, $0.80
    • Whole Foods Market (WFM) 4:03pm, $0.61
    • Symantec (SYMC) 4:04pm, $0.38
    • Everest Re Group Ltd (RE) 4:05pm, $3.83
    • Zynga (ZNGA) 4:05pm, $0.06
    • Citrix Systems (CTXS) 4:05pm, $0.60
    • Angie’s List (ANGI) 4:05pm, $(0.39)
    • Lam Research (LRCX) 4:05pm, $0.65
    • Visa (V) 4:05pm, $1.45
    • Ameriprise Financial (AMP) 4:05pm, $1.34
    • Tesla Motors (TSLA), 4:06pm, $(0.94)
    • Western Digital (WDC) 4:15pm, $2.45
    • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) 4:15pm, $0.49
    • Assurant (AIZ) 4:15pm, $1.41
    • Equity Residential (EQR) 4:25pm, $0.68
    • Community Health Systems (CYH), 4:30pm, $0.89 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • China to Flood Steel Market Hurting ArcelorMittal: Commodities
  • Exxon Seen Leading Drop in Oil Earnings on Lower Prices: Energy
  • Oil Near Lowest in a Week on U.S. Stockpile Gain, China Concern
  • LME Shareholders Approve HKEx’s $2.2 Billion Takeover Offer
  • Midwest Drought Impact Reaches Indonesia as Soybean Levy Ends
  • Corn Rises, Erasing Drop, as Rains May Fail to Reverse Losses
  • Gold Advances for Second Day on European Debt Crisis Concerns
  • Germany Lowers Gold Holdings for First Time in Eight Months
  • Copper Seen Falling as IMF Warns of Risks to China’s Economy
  • East Iowa Corn, Soy Yields Plunge From 2011, Doane Tour Shows
  • South Korea Considering Stockpiling Corn, Wheat, Soybeans
  • Oil Import Peak in China Set to Curb Brent Rally: Energy Markets
  • Fertilizer Maker Seeks Canadian Potash Mines: Corporate India
  • Chinese Steel Exports Rise to Two-Year High
  • Sugar Rises on Speculation of a Surplus Cut; Coffee Declines
  • Food Inflation Seen Rising 4.5% in 2013 as Drought Sears Crops
  • North Dakota Spring Wheat Yields Seen Climbing on Early Planting 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team