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40% of people intend to shop on-line for this back-to-school, per the NRF’s annual survey. This compares to 32% last year, and 21% in 2007. In other words, 42% of the 5-year increase in on-line intent has taken place over the past 12 months. If this survey is accurate, this is big.

Flying in the face of a deceleration in sales out of eBay’s GSI Commerce yesterday, the NRF released its back-to-school survey with surprising results. We usually take many of the National Retail Federation’s surveys and statistics with a grain of salt, but this one is tough to ignore. Per its latest survey, 39.6% of consumers intend to shop online for back-to-school supplies and clothes. While that’s a big number in itself, it is nearly an 800bp acceleration from the 31.7% ‘intent to purchase online’ surveyed exactly one year ago. The rate was 21.4% back in 2007. Translation – ecommerce is accelerating meaningfully. This is why we like companies who are moving forward with a strategy to get 40-50% of sales online. They might not ever get there, but these draconian moves are necessary. Companies that target just 8-10% will be left in the dust.

HedgeyeRetail Visual: Massive E-Commerce Stat - BTS COTD