THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 17, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 26 points or -1.08% downside to 1339 and 0.84% upside to 1365. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/16 NYSE -306
    • Down versus the prior day’s trading of 2044
  • VOLUME: on 07/16 NYSE 602.07
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -11.85%
  • VIX:  as of 07/16 was at 17.11
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 2.21%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -26.88%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/16 closed at 1.47
    • Down from the day prior at 1.62 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


BERNANKE – what started slowing growth, globally, in late Feb early March was Bernanke’s pushing of the goal posts on 0% money to 2014; oil ripped and consumption growth slowed – so, now the Qe people want more of that? Brent Oil busting back towards $104 this morning is only going to compound the #GrowthSlowing problem in July. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 36
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.48%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.47%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.25
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates): 

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook retail sales
  • 8:30am: Consumer Price Index M/m, June, est. 0.0% (prior -0.3%)
  • 8:30am: CPI Ex Food & Energy M/m, June, est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
  • 9am: Total Net TIC Flows, May (prior -$20.5b)
  • 9am: Net Long-term TIC Flows, May, est. $41.3b (prior $25.6b)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production, June, 0.3% (prior -0.1%)
  • 9:15am: Capacity Utilization, June, 79.2% (prior 79.0%)
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, July, est. 30 (prior 29)
  • 10am: Bernanke delivers monetary policy report to Senate
  • 11am: Fed to sell $7b to $8b notes maturing Feb. 15, 2014- Aug. 31, 2014
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $ 4-week bills
  • 1:15pm: Pianalto speaks on economy in Erie, Pennsylvania
  • 4:30pm: API inventories 

GOVERNMENT: 

    • House, Senate in session
    • HSBC officials appear before Senate Homeland Security subcommittee to testify on lapses in London-based bank’s money-laundering controls
    • Bernanke will discuss the outlook for economy, U.S. central bank monetary policy in semi-annual report to Congress
    • CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler testifies before Senate Agriculture on Dodd-Frank, consumer protections; Robert Cook, SEC’s director of trading, also gives testimony
    • Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget holds event on debt reduction at National Press Club, with Dave Cote, CEO of Honeywell International; Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock; Paul Stebbins, CEO of World Fuel Services, 2pm
    • Bloomberg Government hosts breakfast with Southern Co. CEO Thomas Fanning; NextEra Energy Chairman Lew Hay; NV Energy CEO Michael Yackira, 8am
    • FERC, Energy Dept. hold technical conference on small generator interconnection agreements, 9am
    • Senate Energy holds hearing on protecting the electric grid from cyber attacks, 10am
    • House Energy panel holds hearing on alternative fuels, vehicles, 3pm
    • U.S. International Trade Commission meets on third review of stainless steel bar from Brazil, India, Japan, Spain, 11am
    • Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker speaks at State Budget Crisis Task Force discussion, 11am 

WHAT TO WATCH:  

  • Yahoo names Google’s Marissa Mayer as CEO
  • Joblessness issue prompts Fed to shift its focus as Bernanke set to testify to Senate committee today
  • Fed’s George says U.S. growth may not exceed 2% in 2012
  • Spain borrowing costs fall at 12-month bill auction
  • U.K. inflation falls to 2.4%, lowest rate in 2 1/2 yrs
  • HSBC probe shows bank allowed laundering, dodged Iran sanctions
  • Libor manipulation losses probed by 5 state AGs
  • Consumer price index in June probably was little changed
  • US Airways, American Eagle pilot leaders to meet: union 

EARNINGS:

    • Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) 6am, $0.33
    • Mattel (MAT) 6am, $0.21
    • Comerica (CMA) 6:40am, $0.62
    • Mosaic (MOS) 7am, $1.15
    • Omnicom Group (OMC) 7am, $1.01
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) 7:30am, $1.18
    • State Street Corp (STT) 7:17am, $0.97
    • Coca-Cola (KO) 7:30am, $1.19; Preview
    • TD Ameritrade Holding (AMTD) 7:30am $0.26
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 7:45am $1.29; Preview
    • Forest Laboratories (FRX) 8am, $0.32; Preview
    • Kansas City Southern (KSU) 8am, $0.84
    • M&T Bank Corp (MTB) 8am, $1.69
    • McMoRan Exploration Co (MMR) 8am, $(0.13)
    • Charles Schwab (SCHW) 8:45am, $0.18
    • Intel Corp (INTC) 4:01pm, $0.52
    • CSX Corp (CSX) 4:01pm, $0.47
    • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) 4:02pm, $1.49
    • Yahoo (YHOO) 4:05pm, $0.23
    • Albemarle (ALB) 4:05pm, $1.22
    • Fidelity National Info Svcs (FIS) 4:05pm, $0.59
    • United Rentals (URI) 4:15pm, $0.50
    • AAR (AIR) 4:24pm, $0.46
    • Fulton Financial (FULT) 4:30pm, $0.20
    • Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) 4:30pm, $0.32
    • MB Financial (MBFI) Late, $0.38
    • Equity Lifestyle Properties (ELS) Late, $1.02
    • Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) Unknown time, $(0.31) 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL – Oil looks different than Gold coming out of the weekend’s Israel/Iran chatter; there is nothing that will slow the world’s marginal real-consumption growth than higher oil prices; rising food/oil prices also puts further Chinese rate cuts on hold don’t forget. 

  • Good Dirt Gone Dry Wilting Corn as Food Costs Gain: Commodities
  • Oil Supplies Decline for Fourth Week in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Oil’s Center of Gravity Shifts Toward Asia: Chart of the Day
  • Rio Tinto CEO Closely Watching Economic Turmoil as China Slows
  • Oil Near Seven-Week High on Iran Tensions, Stimulus Speculation
  • Corn Slides From 13-Month High as Demand Slows for Fuel and Feed
  • Gold Set to Gain in London on Speculation Over Further Stimulus
  • Copper Seen Rising Ahead of U.S. Data and Bernanke Testimony
  • Sugar Falls on Surplus Outlook; Cocoa Gains on El Nino Concerns
  • Iron Ore Drops to Lowest Price Since May as Chinese Demand Wanes
  • Rubber Gains as China May Add Stimulus, Thailand Boosts Support
  • Palm-Oil Refining Capacity Seen Climbing 24% in Indonesia
  • Zinc Poised for 9% Rally on TD Buy Signal: Technical Analysis
  • Mosaic Doubles Dividend as Profit Beat Estimates on Planting
  • Soybean Acres in India to Climb as Record Prices Boost Planting
  • Palm-Oil Options Seen Boosting Futures Volume on Malaysia Bourse

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CURRENCIES


US DOLLAR – get the Dollar right and you’ll get today/tomorrow right; watching that closely into and around Bernanke at 10AM EST; if we had to bet (we don’t, so we won’t take a position until we see the river card), USD and Gold are saying Bernanke doesn’t deliver the drugs. USD remains in a Bullish Formation and Gold a Bearish one.

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST

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The Hedgeye Macro Team