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TGT: Locked and Loaded

HEDGEYE ANALYST:

Brian McGough, Managing Director of Retail (@HedgeyeRetail)

 

 

 

 

Target (TGT) is a stock that has a lot going for it at the moment. While we’re not of the opinion that the stock is going to pull a massive move and double in price within a one year timespan, several near-term factors will help drive margins at the mid-tier retailer.

 

First, crude oil is crashing. That has been obvious since the hysteria of the $108 a barrel price from earlier this year. With WTI crude now trading $80 a barrel, the fuel cost savings will be reflected in Target’s share price very soon if it follows in the footsteps of Walmart (WMT), which is up nearly 11% since the April breakdown of crude.

 

Another catalyst here is the mess going on at JC Penney (JCP) and the subsequent hemorrhaging of mid-tier market share along with Kohl’s (KSS). The shift we’re seeing is a consumer flight to stores like Ross (ROST) and TJ Maxx (TJX). Target will benefit from the change in sentiment and shopping.

 

Target’s last quarterly earnings report was a blow out. It’s weathering the retail storm quite nicely while companies like Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) struggle to stay relevant and hold market share in the Home category. TGT remains a top five competitor in the space.

 

Lastly, TRADE (Duration = 3 weeks or less) and TREND (Duration = 3 weeks or less) support of $57.30 and $56.22, respectively, it is sitting at a point where the fundamentals and price mesh well within our framework.

 

You can really run the gamut with Target’s breadth of customers in terms of income level. People generally take a liking to the store, especially since it began touting itself as a clothing retailer that “gets fashion” over the last decade - hence why we are currently long TGT in our virtual portfolio.

 

 

TGT: Locked and Loaded - TGT trend

 

 


Correlation Risk In The Markets

 

We have been pounding the desk over correlation risk for some time now. The US dollar goes up and commodities and everything else go straight down. If you get growth and the dollar right, you’re going to get a lot of things right. This has proven particularly true after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting and subsequent (lack of) announcements on monetary easing.

 

After our bold call to go 100% cash yesterday, we took it down to 94% and entered into some equities in the Hedgeye virtual portfolio. We will not overly short the market and nor will the retail crowd after three consecutive weeks of rallying – even after today’s selloff.

 

Goldman Sachs came out on Thursday and said that they are issuing a downside target of 1285 in the S&P 500. That’s their call. As Keith (McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye) said on CNBC’s Fast Money: “I don’t look to Goldman Sachs to tell me what to do.” What lies ahead for the market is not certain and until our levels, qualitative and quantitative analysis sync up, we are perfectly fine with our current asset allocation.


HedgeyeRetail Visual: Valuation in a Different Light

Let’s throw traditional valuation metrics out the door for a minute and look at EV/Total Addressable Market Value. It suggests that some of the seemingly most expensive stocks are actually the cheapest – and vice/versa.

 

Tired of nit-picking over a point here or there in p/e, price/sales or EV/EBITDA?  Basing investment decisions on these metrics often obfuscate the real value proposition. We looked at EV/Total Addressable Market for a host of companies. It shows that some of the ‘most expensive’ stocks based on traditional metrics are actually among the cheapest on this methodology.

 

In our analysis, we not only look at the market size each company is targeting, but also apply two discount factors; 1) the extent to which the company has the operating infrastructure in place to garner increased share, and 2) whether management is capable of achieving this growth.

 

HedgeyeRetail Visual: Valuation in a Different Light - EV TAM


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.65%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.63%

TGT: TRADE Idea Alert

Keith added TGT to the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio today on the long side. To be clear, this is not a change in our fundamental view, and we don’t view TGT as one of those fat-TAIL 2-year doubles. But there are some near-term factors that should help TGT on the margin.

 

1) Oil down = TGT up. It’s interesting that since Crude Oil started to break down in the early part of April (Brent down by 22% in three months), TGT is down by 1%, and Wal-Mart is up 11% (and setting new highs). Yes, we understand that WMT serves a demographic with less disposable income, but there’s no fundamental reason why WMT would benefit from lower oil prices and TGT would not.

2) The JC Penney fiasco is resulting in a hemorrhage of market share in the mid-tier. The good news for TGT is that Kohl’s is not taking it. In fact, KSS is giving up additional share as well. We’re seeing the consumer shift to off-price channels as TJX and ROST pick up share. We’re even seeing the likes of Macy’s and Gap gain share. If those players benefit, TGT will too (and WMT will not).

3) Last quarter, TGT printed a blow-out number, which was at  the precise point where the organization should have otherwise shown weakness due to the management changes over the past nine months (Michael Francis likely kicking himself for going to JCP and subsequently getting fired last week).  BBBY is a good example of what happens when a company is ill prepared for changes in the competitive landscape, and logistics associated with big company events (HQ move). TGT is no BBBY.  In fact, BBBY is clearly losing share in the Home category. One of its top 5 competitors in that space is Target.

4) Lastly, with TRADE and TREND support of $57.30 and $56.22, respectively, it is sitting at a point where the fundamentals and price mesh well within Hedgeye’s Risk Management framework.

 

TGT vs. WMT. Vs. Brent Crude: Since Oil started breaking down, TGT is down 1% while WMT is up 11%. There’s no fundamental reason why TGT will not benefit as Oil drops.

 

TGT: TRADE Idea Alert - TGT

 

TGT: TRADE Idea Alert - TGT levels


UA: A Knight's Chase

HEDGEYE ANALYST: 

Brian McGough, Managing Director of Retail (@HedgeyeRetail)

 

 

The case for Under Armour (UA) is an interesting one. After a meteoric rise in share price, the stock could be construed as a stock that’s “too expensive.” It’s up 100% since last August  after swooping in and taking market share from Nike. After today’s post-UBS downgrade pullback and the unveiling of a new line of footwear, we added UA to the virtual portfolio. The long-term outlook for the company is very solid despite the cautionary landscape in the near-term.

 

 

UA: A Knight's Chase - UA chart1

 

 

Using our TRADE, TREND and TAIL durations, here are three takeaways on why UA is a long:

 

TRADE (Duration = 3 weeks or less)

UA remains a bit expensive and footwear isn’t really going anywhere right now. Though business appears to be stable, there will be a capital-intensive marketing campaign surrounding UA’s new line of shoes. Our TRADE support line is at $98.78.

 

TREND (Duration = 3 months or more)

It appears that UA has finally got its inventory control levels sorted out and with a new management shake up that includes newly created positions, there’s a growth story here. UA is fixing problems that need to be addressed and by 2013, should be on its way to better margins and sales.

 

TAIL (Duration = 3 years or less)

We think that UA will put up $3 billion in revenue by 2014 after doing just $1.5 billion in 2011. Where does the growth come from? The incremental top line breaks out as follows. a) $500mm in core apparel growth, b) $300mm in incremental footwear, c) $300mm in international apparel, d) $250mm in women’s apparel, e) $125mm in accessories (having brought hats and bags licenses in house).

 

 

UA: A Knight's Chase - UA chart2

 

 

Under Armour is not an immediate-term stock to chase around. There is serious growth potential here that companies like Lululemon Athletica (LULU) can only hope to achieve.


COF: FILE A COMPLAINT

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has released detailed customer complaint data from June 1, 2012 through June 12, 2012 since it began accepting complaints back in July of 2011. Interestingly enough, Capital One Financial (COF) has the most complaints with 22% of the total complaints filed with the CFPB. Regardless of COF’s business practices, this small amount of data makes it clear that consumers are butting heads with the company.

 

Discover Financial Services (DFS) reported Q2 earnings this week and as Hedgeye Financials Sector Head Josh Steiner pointed out, the company put aside a $90 million legal reserve. “It should make investors question whether large hits could be in store for more complaint-heavy companies, like Capital One,” Steiner has noted.

 

The regulatory landscape for credit card companies will become increasingly difficult over the next year or two. That’s food for thought. Like many provisions within the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, the CFPB’s ultimate endgame and purpose is nebulous and vague. Time will tell the how the CFPB will exert power onto companies like COF and DFS.

 

COF: FILE A COMPLAINT - DFS CFPB

 

 


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