THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 19, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or -1.55% downside to 1324 and 0.24% upside to 1348. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 6/18 NYSE 539
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of 1149
  • VOLUME: on 6/18 NYSE 707.28
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -53.26%
  • VIX:  as of 6/18 was at 18.32
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -13.22%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -21.71%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 6/18 closed at 1.51
    • Down from the day prior at 1.72 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


TREASURIES – you can whip the manic equity guy around on no-volume (down -38% volume study yesterday was awful), but you can’t budge bonds. 10yr down again to 1.58% this morning and the Yield Spread is about to snap +130 wide again. Not good for the Financials – it wasn’t yesterday either. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.57
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.29
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, May, est. 721k (prior 717k)
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, May, est. 730k (prior 723k)
  • 10am: JOLTs Job Openings, April, est. 3685 (prior 3737)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2b notes in 8/15/2018-2/15/2031 range
  • 11:30 am: U.S. to sell 4-week bills
  • 4:30pm: API inventories
  • FOMC Meeting, Day 1 

GOVERNMENT:

    • U.S. Federal Open Market Committee policy makers begin two- day meeting in Washington to decide on interest rates, 10am
    • Mexican President and G-20 summit host Felipe Calderon may hold late-afternoon press conference on meeting’s final day
    • House, Senate in session
    • Joint Economic Committee holds hearing on economic impact of ending funding for certain government data, 2:30pm
    • Senate Finance hears from former White House Budget Director Alice Rivlin on looming fiscal crisis, 10am
    • CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton delivers keynote address at Mutual Fund Directors Forum policy conference, 7pm 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon testifies at House cmte hearing
  • U.S. Federal Open Market Committee begins two-day meeting
  • Greek parties to form group to renegotiate bailout terms; borrowing costs fall at 91-day bill auction
  • Microsoft unveils Surface tablet computer, taking on IPad
  • Oracle rises after earnings beat estimates on software sales
  • German investor confidence dropped more than forecast in June
  • G-20 leaders hold a 2nd day of meetings in Mexico, to urge euro-area govts to take all steps to protect currency union
  • China leads 12 nations helping boost IMF’s firewall to $456b
  • CBS billboard unit worth a look: Clear Channel Outdoor CEO
  • Insight said to top $25.50/shr offer to buy Quest Software
  • Danone cuts profitability goal on southern Europe, costs
  • France plans 3% div. tax to be paid by cos., Les Echos says
  • China said to order checks on maturing bonds to avoid defaults 

EARNINGS:

    • FedEx (FDX) 7:30am, $1.92
    • John Wiley & Sons (JW/A) 8am, $0.73
    • Jefferies Group (JEF) 8am, $0.27
    • Discover Financial Services (DFS) 8:30am, $1.00
    • Barnes & Noble (BKS) 8:30am, $(0.91)
    • Jabil Circuit (JBL) 4:02pm, $0.64
    • Adobe Systems (ADBE) 4:05pm, $0.59
    • La-Z-Boy (LZB) 4:05pm, $0.26

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL  - both WTIC and Brent act horribly ahead of what is supposed to be another Bernanke Bailout tomorrow; consensus better watch what they are begging for here as Dr Copper also disagrees (down -0.4% this morning and still in a Bearish Formation); Gold has had a good move front-running Fed expectations, but now bumps up against a wall of resistance at $1642. 

  • Rubber Glut Extends Bear Market as Bridgestone Wins: Commodities
  • Corn Set for Biggest Two-Day Advance Since April on U.S. Weather
  • Robusta Coffee Declines as Slowing Economies May Erode Demand
  • Oil Declines for a Second Day on Europe Concern, Iranian Talks
  • Copper Swings Between Gains and Declines as Spain Sells Debt
  • Gold Seen Gaining an Eighth Day as Europe Crisis Spurs Demand
  • Australia Sugar Exports at 3-Year High to Boost World Supply
  • Korea Boosts Corn Imports From South America as Real Slumps
  • Oil Supply Falls on Refinery Demand in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Uralkali Rating to Pave Way for Debut Eurobonds: Russia Credit
  • Australia to Boost Beef Supplies as Herd Climbs to 37-Year High
  • Itochu Mirrors Xstrata in Trader to Miner Shift, Seeks Copper
  • India’s Gold Imports Seen Lower as Record Price Cuts Demand
  • Oil Supply Falls on Refinery Use in Survey
  • GDF Suez Quits Europe as Belgium Plans to Shut Reactors: Energy
  • BlackRock’s Hambro Says Mining Dividend Crusade Reaping Rewards
  • Global Economy to Curb Wool Demand Even as China Boosts Supplies 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – just an outright nasty ZEW (German expectations rpt) this morning at -16.9 for June (vs +10.8 in May) tells you all you need to know about #GrowthSlowing (at an accelerating rate) in one of the few remaining countries that didn’t have a big growth problem. Sold our German Bunds on green yesterday as growth tends to trump all other risk management factors at the turns.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team



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