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I think I’ve expressed my concern surrounding WYNN’s Q4 pretty clearly over the past several weeks so I’d like to turn my attention to 2009. Unfortunately, the picture looks even worse. In 1H 2008, the Rolling Chip (RC) environment was flooded with credit and Wynn Macau was a major beneficiary. Moreover, Wynn’s Mass Market (MM) business benefited from loose visa restrictions in mainland China and an upswing in credit directly from the casino. Wynn Macau knocked the cover off the ball, generating 70% and 27% growth in RC and MM revenue, respectively, in 1H 2008.

What a difference a year makes. Junket credit has dried up and direct credit has been tightened. Strict visa restrictions will likely impede Mass Market growth. Q4 2008 was the worst quarter of the year in both segments. The first chart provides quarterly revenue and year over year growth by segment for Wynn Macau for 2008-2009. Assuming a Q4 run rate for all of 2009, Wynn Macau’s 1H 2009 RC and MM revenue could fall 28% and 18%, respectively. While there is some seasonality, particularly in Q1 with Chinese New Year, the offset is the continued deterioration in the credit situation.

The second chart details how overly optimistic analysts appear to be with their Wynn Macau and WYNN corporate EBITDA estimates. We estimate Street EBITDA projections for 1H2009 may need to be reduced by 24% and 18%, respectively, for Wynn Macau and WYNN corporate.

Difficult comps and deteriorating trends
Analysts not bearish enough