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THE M3: MACAU TOUR AND HOTEL DATA; CHINA RRR CUT

The Macau Metro Monitor, May 14, 2012

 

 

PACKAGE TOURS AND HOTEL OCCUPANCY RATE FOR MARCH 2012 DSEC

Visitor arrivals in package tours surged by 51.1% YoY to 754,163 in March 2012.  Visitors from Mainland China (531,096) increased by 45.8%, with 174,477 coming from Guangdong Province; besides, those from Taiwan (70,556); Hong Kong (35,765); the Republic of Korea (28,449); and Japan (23,402) soared by 163.7%, 87.0%, 42.9% and 20.3% YoY respectively.

 

In the first quarter of 2012, visitors in package tours totaled 2,050,476, up by 45.6% YoY to account for 29.5% of the total visitor arrivals, higher than the 21.9% from the same period of 2011.

 

Number of available guest rooms of the 95 hotels and guest-houses totaled 22,272 at the end of March 2012, an increase of 2,143 rooms (+10.6 YoY), with those of the 5-star hotels accounting for 63.7% of the total.  The average length of stay decreased by 0.08 night to 1.4 nights.

 

PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA CUTS BANKS' RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIOS 50 BPS, EFFECTIVE 18-MAY Reuters

On May 18, for large banks, the required reserve ratio will be cut to 20.0% from 20.5%.


MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD

Key Takeaways

* Domestic financial company CDS widened considerably last week on the heels of the JPM announcement.  JPM itself saw swaps widen 22% from 103 bps a week ago to 134 bps as of Friday. Only WFC has lower default risk, as measured by CDS.  Other moneycenters and broker-dealers saw CDS increase by 7 - 13%.  

 

* Nearly all European Bank CDS widened last week.  Two of the four big French banks are now trading above 300 bps on CDS, while the major Spanish banks we track are all above 400 bps.  European Sovereign CDS all widened last week as well, with Spanish CDS rising 11.5% to 541 bps. 

 

Financial Risk Monitor Summary

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - Summary

 

1. US Financials CDS Monitor – Swaps widened for 25 of 26 major domestic financial company reference entities last week.  

Widened the most WoW: JPM, AXP, MBI

Tightened the most/widened the least WoW: MTG, RDN, UNM

Widened the most MoM: MTG,RDN, GNW

TIghtened the most MoM: COF, AIG, C

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - US CDS

 

2. European Financial CDS - Bank swaps were wider in Europe last week for 37 of the 39 reference entities. The average widening was 5.4% while the median widening was 4.9%. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - EURO cds

 

3. European Sovereign CDS – European Sovereign Swaps mostly widened over last week. Spanish sovereign swaps widened by 11.5% (56 bps to 541 ) and French sovereign swaps widened by 9.8% (19 bps to 214).

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - Sov Table

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - Sov CDS 1 2

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - Sov CDS 2 2

 

4. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates rose 4 bps last week, ending the week at 7.11 versus 7.07 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - HY

 

5. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index rose 3.4 points last week, ending at 1675.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - LLI

 

6. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread fell -1.9 points last week, ending the week at 37.3 this week versus last week’s print of 39.2.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - TED

 

7. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – The JOC index fell 2.8 points, ending the week at -7.76 versus -5.0 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - JOC

 

8. Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 3 bps to 35 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - Euribor OIS

 

9. ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - ECB

 

10. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps. We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments. Markit publishes index values daily on six 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. We track the 16-V1. Last week spreads widened , ending the week at 152.25 bps versus 150.75 bps the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - mcdx

 

11. Baltic Dry Index – The Baltic Dry Index measures international shipping rates of dry bulk cargo, mostly commodities used for industrial production. Higher demand for such goods, as manifested in higher shipping rates, indicates economic expansion. Last week the index fell 19 points, ending the week at 1138 versus 1157 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - Baltic

 

12. 2-10 Spread – We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.  Last week the 2-10 spread tightened to 158 bps, 4 bps tighter than a week ago.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - 2 10

 

13. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 2.4% upside to TRADE resistance and 0.9% downside to TRADE support.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - XLF

 

Margin Debt - March: +0.91 standard deviations 

We publish NYSE Margin Debt every month when it’s released. NYSE Margin debt hit its post-2007 peak in April of 2011 at $320.7 billion. The chart below shows the S&P 500 overlaid against NYSE margin debt going back to 1997. In this chart both the S&P 500 and margin debt have been inflation adjusted (back to 1990 dollar levels), and we’re showing margin debt levels in standard deviations relative to the mean covering the period 1. While this may sound complicated, the message is really quite simple. First, when margin debt gets to 1.5 standard deviations or greater, as it did last April, it has historically been a signal of extreme risk in the equity market - the last two times it did this the equity market lost half its value in the ensuing period. We flagged this for the first time back in May 2011. The second point is that margin debt trends tend to exhibit high degrees of autocorrelation. In other words, the last few months’ change in margin debt is the best predictor of the change we’ll see in the next few months. We would need to see it approach -0.5 to -1.0 standard deviations before the trend runs its course. There’s plenty of room for short/intermediate term reversals within this broader secular move. Overall, however, this setup represents a long-term headwind for the market. One limitation of this series is that it is reported on a lag.  

 

The chart shows data through March. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CDS WIDEN ACROSS THE BOARD - Margin Debt

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 

Robert Belsky

 

Having trouble viewing the charts in this email?  Please click the link at the bottom of the note to view in your browser. 

 


Capital Flight

This note was originally published at 8am on April 30, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“Capital flight is a traditional response to currency collapse.”

-Jim Rickards

 

During most “bull” markets you see a decisively bullish pattern of rising volumes and fund flows to those markets. Not this one.

 

Not in Venezuela either. While Chavez has been less subtle about devaluing Venezuela’s currency than Ben Bernanke has ours, at up +121% for 2012 YTD, the fund flows to the Venezuelan stock market are as dead as Keynes too.

 

The failed political strategy of inflating asset prices via Currency Debauchery is not new. Neither is the hyperinflation sometimes born out of those strategies. As Jim Rickards reminds us in Currency Wars, “In 1922, the inflation turned to hyperinflation as the Reichsbank gave up trying to control the situation and printed money frantically…” (page 59)

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Don’t worry, we don’t have hyperinflation in the USA yet. Nor are we likely to if the Global Macro Ball that is being held underwater (the US Dollar) suddenly pops up. That, last I checked, has Deflated The Inflation in a hurry, multiple times in the last 5 years. So manage your risk accordingly.

 

People aren’t stupid. If you burn their bucks with broken promises of iQe upgrades over, and over, and over again – they’ll stop giving you their hard earned Dollars to burn. Selling Commodities and Equities into their Q1 tops of 2008, 2010, 2011 proved to be very smart 3-6 month timing decisions. When it comes to the pending flight of your capital, you don’t want to miss that flight.

 

Last week’s rally in asset price inflation was trivial. As the US Economic data worsened, expectations for iQe4 rose. Whenever that happens – and it has happened multiple times in the last 5yrs – the US Dollar goes down, and asset prices catch another lower volume bid. In context, here’s how that looked last week:

  1. US Dollar = down another -0.6% to $78.71 (down for 6 of the last 7 weeks)
  2. SP500 = up +1.8% (getting back to flat for April, right on time, into month-end)
  3. CRB Commodities Index = +1.4% (led by Natural Gas, up +14% on the week)

Now political people really like to argue with me on this, primarily because I’m holding them accountable for not only Policies To Inflate, but also A) the shortened economic cycles and B) amplified market volatilities born out of their policies.

 

Fortunately, the data doesn’t lie; politicians do. Growth Slowing again is as obvious as the sun rising in the East. If an un-elected Central Planner in Chief didn’t arbitrarily decide to move the goal posts on January 25th, 2012 (pushing easy money to 2014), I don’t think the US Dollar would have had this decline – and I don’t think US Growth would have slowed like it just did.

 

Here’s what US GDP Growth looked like in Q1 of 2012:

  1. Q1 2012 GDP slowed to 2.2% from 3.0% in Q4 of 2011
  2. Q1 US Fixed Investment Growth slowed to 0.18% from 0.78% in Q4 of 2011
  3. Q1 US Export/Import Growth accelerated to -0.01% from -0.26% in Q4 of 2011

Ah, the elixir of a Keynesian life – Exports. Yes, in their textbook it says that if you devalue the currency of a country, you will “boost” exports. Ok, sounds good – but it has not and will not work in the United States of America if the broken promise is to keep doing this with the US Dollar testing 40 year lows.

 

Consumption and Investment drive the US Economy, not Government and Currency Devaluation. If you perpetuate spikes in price inflation, Consumption will fall. If you perpetuate economic volatility, Fixed Investment will slow.

 

US Consumption = 71% of US GDP. That’s why gas prices matter so much to real (inflation adjusted) US GDP Growth. Sure, Final Retail Sales Growth rose to +1.6% in Q1, but a lot of that simply has to do with prices at the pump going up. Mistaking inflation for growth has been, and will continue to be, the legacy of Keynesian economic forecasters in the Bush/Obama era.

 

In order to account for inflation adjustments, the US Government estimates what they call the “Deflator” and subtract that price from what you are paying at the gas station, grocery store, etc.

 

Look at what the US GDP Deflator has done in the last 2 quarters:

  1. Q4 2011 Deflator = 0.84%
  2. Q1 2012 Deflator = +1.5%

You don’t need a Ph.D in applied math to realize that (even if you believe these ridiculously low government “estimates” of inflation in your life) their estimates just almost doubled, on the margin.

 

On the margin is how real human beings live. It’s also how Globally Interconnected Risk is priced. Paycheck to paycheck, tick by tick – it’s real life for all of us who have to balance a family budget and firm payroll. It’s what most of these conflicted and compromised central planners have never been held accountable to in their working life.

 

The Fed’s “mandate” = Price Stability and Full Employment. US Jobless Claims just spiked +15% month-over-month (April versus March), and price volatility is plainly evident to anyone with live quotes. It’s time to get real about the credibility of the currency in this country, or we are going to see some serious Capital Flight.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index, France’s CAC40, and the SP500 are now $1647-1664, $118.94-120.17, $78.66-79.22, 3099-3321, and 1391-1408, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Capital Flight - Chart of the Day

 

Capital Flight - Virtual Portfolio


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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 14, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 33 points or -1.36% downside to 1335 and 1.08% upside to 1368. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 5/11 NYSE -637
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of 717
  • VOLUME: on 5/11 NYSE 785.74
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 0.21%
  • VIX:  as of 5/11 was at 19.89
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 5.63%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -15.00%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 05/11 closed at 2.72
    • Up from the day prior at 1.60 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


TREASURIES – 10yr yields piking to 1.79% this morning and the Yield Spread (10s minus 2s) is hitting a fresh YTD low of 153bps wide (-24% from the mid-March peak when most stocks peaked). Falling rates and Yield Spread are bad for Financials on the margin – like they needed more to worry about… 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.78
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading at 1.84
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.52
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 1.58 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 11am: U.S. Fed to purchase $4.25-5b notes
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House not in session
    • Senate to consider motion to proceed to Export-Import Bank Reauthorization, 2pm
    • NRC discusses recommendations for containment-venting systems, rapid transfer of spent reactor fuel from pools to sealed storage casks, 9am
    • White House energy adviser Heather Zichal participates in API conference on hydraulic fracturing, 9am
    • Public comments due to CFTC on establishing minimum block sizes for certain kinds of swaps, block trades  

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Yahoo! CEO Thompson steps down after inquiry into his academic credentials; Levinsohn is interim CEO
  • Chesapeake has 8:30am call; Co.’s $3b lifeline heaps pressure on CEO
  • Euro officials begin to consider Greek exit from currency
  • Avon says its board will respond to Coty’s offer within a week
  • LightSquared nearing bankruptcy protection filing; key creditor deadline: WSJ
  • China lowers banks’ reserve requirements to support growth
  • JPMorgan losses lead to moves in swaps indexes
  • JPMorgan executives are said to be preparing departures
  • Concho Resources to buy Permian Basin assets for $1b
  • Economy in U.S. buoyed with autos spurring glass-to-steel growth
  • Shale may double Australia’s nat-gas resources, report says
  • Disney’s “Avengers” sets second-weekend N.A. record with $103m
  • Merkel’s CDU suffers worst postwar result in biggest state
  • Quarterly deadline tomorrow for mutual, hedge funds to disclose holdings 

EARNINGS:

    • Silver Wheaton (SLW CN) 6:30am, $0.43
    • Eastern Platinum (ELR CN) 8am, ($0.01)
    • SouthGobi (SGQ CN) 8am, $0.00
    • Groupon (GRPN) 4pm, $0.01
    • Agilent (A) 4pm, $0.73
    • Air Lease (AL) 4:05pm, $0.28
    • Renren (RENN) post-mkt, $0.04 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Bullish Wagers Plunge Most in 2012 on Greek Impasse: Commodities
  • Commodities Decline for Ninth Day on Greek Crisis, China Concern
  • Oil Falls to 2012 Low on Greek Debt, Saudi Call for Price Drop
  • Gold Erases This Year’s Gain as Europe Concern Boosts Dollar
  • Copper Reaches Four-Month Low Amid Greek Euro-Exit Speculation
  • Palm Oil Plunges Most in 14 Months as Europe Debt Crisis Deepens
  • Soybeans Drop to Six-Week Low as U.S. Planting Accelerates
  • Cocoa Falls in London on Increased Sales and Weakening Demand
  • Gold VIX Near 10-Month Low Amid Bets Against Stimulus: Options
  • Power Company Bond Risk Climbs on Nuclear Shutdown: Japan Credit
  • Hedge Funds Cut Bets on Oil Before Seaway Shift: Energy Markets
  • China Coal Prices Drop in May for First Time in Three Years
  • Argentina as No Claims-Nation Revealed in Repsol Losses: Energy
  • ICE Adding Grains to Lure Hedge Funds Chasing USDA Price Swings
  • Gold ETF Assets in India Top Record 100 Billion Rupees in April
  • Tanzania Considers Copper-Ore Export Ban to Focus on Processing 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


ITALY – stocks down another -3.2% this morning puts Italy back into crash mode (down -21% from its March top); Spain is down -24% from its March top and Spanish CDS +24bps to a new record high of +540 this morning. How’s that Keynesian experiment treating everyone out there so far?

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


INDIA – something not so funny happened on the way to India immediately after Bernanke decided to push easy money out to 2014 (Jan 25th Policy To Inflate date) – India started importing more inflation and real growth slowed; Sensex stopped going up in Feb = down -12.1% since; this morning’s inflation report for April was not good at +7.2% vs 6.9% in March.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team



Dollar Hostages

“I am determined that the American Dollar must never again be hostage in the hands of international speculators.”

-President Richard Nixon, 1971

 

In Currency Wars (page 86), Jim Rickards highlighted that very sad day in US Economic history (August 15th, 1971) when Nixon abandoned the Gold Standard and officially made the US Dollar a political football. We’re all hostage to its Correlation Risk now.

 

In the 1970s, Nixon would say “we’re all Keynesians now.” Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama’s economic policies of the 1970’s and 2000’s  would agree with that. But are we? Collectively, I think America is smarter than that. When something doesn’t work, we stop doing it – eventually. Monetarily, Reagan got that right. Fiscally, Clinton did. The People forced them to.

 

With Correlation Risk running at generational highs, “speculators” take their cue from the US Dollar. And the US Dollar takes its lead from policy makers. Markets are hostage to what the Dollar does because this is what we asked for. We asked for Bernanke. We asked for bailouts. Now that we see how this movie ends (Europe), are we going to be asking for more?

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Last week the USD was up for the 2ndweek in a row, trading up +0.96% to $80.26 on the US Dollar Index. Since Bernanke has trained them to expect short-term asset price inflation, Stock and Commodity Markets really do not like it when that happens. In the face of US Dollar strength, stocks and commodities were both down for the 2nd consecutive week.

 

The bad news about short-term commodity price inflation is that it Slows Global Economic Growth. If you are a country like India or Japan (and you are a net importer of Oil) you really get jammed by this sort of thing.

 

India’s Sensex Index was down another -0.54% last night (down -12.1% from where it topped when growth started slowing in February) after reporting that it’s Wholesales Price Index for April inflated, sequentially, to +7.2% versus +6.9% in March.

 

The good news about short-term stock and commodity price inflations is that they deflate. Sometimes fast. That’s plainly obvious to anyone who has blown up other people’s money being levered long Commodities at the Q1 tops of 2008, 2010, 2011 – and now, 2012.

 

With the US Dollar up +0.96% last week, here’s your highly correlated move lower in Commodity prices:

  1. CRB Commodities Index (19 Commodities) = down another -2% (down -11% from their February 2012 top)
  2. WTIC Oil = down another -4% (down -11% from its February 2012 top)
  3. Gold = down another -4% (down -11% from its February 2012 top)

I couldn’t make up how linear and correlated these moves have been since February if I tried. God only knows Bernanke has avoided discussing the words Dollar, Correlation, and Risk like the bubonic plague (for good career risk management reason). But that certainly doesn’t mean these Correlation Risks to market prices cease to exist.

 

You see, if I was tasked with “price stability”, the last thing I’d do is bring up the causality (policy) driving people to “speculate” on up/down Gold and Oil prices. Accountability isn’t a word in Washington. And that’s just plain sad too.

 

Accountability in performance is definitely a word in the asset management community. Looking at the latest CFTC Commodities options data (Bloomberg) consider the following:

  1. Bullish bets on commodity contracts (19 CRB components) dropped -19% week-over-week last week! (723,239 contracts)
  2. Bullish bets on Gold contracts tanked -20% last week (to 92,498 contracts) = lowest level since December 2008!
  3. Bullish bets on US Farm Goods swooned -15% week-over-week to 435,801 contracts

In other words, if you bought the top in Commodities in February – and you did that with leverage – you’re definitely blowing up right here and now. Gold and Copper are down another -1.5% and -2.8%, respectively this morning!

 

Yes, that’s an exclamation point. I don’t use them that often. But they are very appropriate. We are fighting the Fed, and winning.

 

As a reminder, our Top 3 Global Macro Themes for Q2 of 2012 are:

 

1.       The Last War: Fed Fighting

2.       Bernanke’s Bubbles (Commodities)

3.       Asymmetric Risks

 

These were not easy calls to make at the end of another Q1 YTD top in Global Equities and Commodities. Neither was it easy to write a note titled “Selling Opportunity” in US Equities when they went green momentarily on Friday.

 

This Globally Interconnected Game of Risk is not easy. Neither is it going to be easy to convince the American People that they should be Dollar Hostages for another one of these Qe’s. Been there, done that (multiple times) – and it didn’t work.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and the SP500 are now $1, $109-45-113.89, $1.28-1.30, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Dollar Hostages - Chart of the Day

 

Dollar Hostages - Virtual Portfolio


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