TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 30, 2012

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.88% downside to 1391 and 0.33% upside to 1408. 











    • Down from the prior day’s trading of 1071
  • VOLUME: on 4/27 NYSE 787.79
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 0.97%
  • VIX:  as of 4/27 was at 16.32
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.49%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -30.26%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/27 closed at 2.21
    • Up from the day prior at 1.31 


GROWTH – slowing, sequentially, is now a reported fact – but Treasury Yields (10yr 1.93%) and Equity Markets (making lower-highs, globally, since Feb-March) have been very stealth in discounting that before the Sell-Side has. This morning’s South Korean Export number was awful at flat y/y (ie no growth).


STAGFLATION – politically, it’s harder to say we have that in the USA right now (b/c of how we calculate GDP and inflation) than it is to say they have it in Europe. In Italy, the CPI was reported at +3.8% y/y for April, which is nauseatingly high relative to the no growth in Italian GDP (or France, Spain, etc). Brent oil $119 is a consumption killer. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.92
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 1.93
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.67
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.68 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Mar., est. 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Spending, Mar., est. 0.4% (prior 0.8%)
  • 9:45am: Chicago PMI, Apr., est. 60.5 (prior 62.2)
  • 10:00am: NAPM-Milwaukee, Apr., est. 53 (prior 51.8)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manu. Act., Apr., est. 8 (prior 10.8)
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. bills
  • 5:30pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on jobs in Beverly Hills, CA 


    • Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda visits White House to discuss U.S.-Japan Security Alliance, economy and trade
    • President Obama to speak at Building and Construction Trades legislative conference
    • House, Senate not in session
    • Supreme Court issues orders only


  • Collective Brands said to select group made up of Wolverine World Wide, Golden Gate Capital as leading contender to buy co.
  • Warner Chilcott said to be weighing options including possible sale after receiving interest from strategic, private-equity buyers
  • Spain’s economy enters second recession since 2009
  • LightSquared said to receive weeklong extension from creditors
  • Consumer spending in the U.S. probably climbed 0.4% in March as incomes  grew, economists est.
  • Occupy Wall Street demonstrators plan marches across the world tomorrow calling attention to what they say are abuses of power, wealth
  • Chrysler’s Dodge Dart overcoming snags before start of production, will have high-mileage version ready in 3Q
  • Apple uses offices in states other than California, countries outside the U.S. to help minimize its overall tax burden: NYT
  • Yahoo urged shareholders not to back board nominees put forward by holder Third Point
  • Boeing will ship all four 787 composite-plastic Dreamliners to Air India, the carrier that demanded $1b in compensation after production delays
  • Apple, Google deserve to be part of Dow Jones industrial average: Barron’s
  • Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O’Neill reported by Sunday Times to be a candidate for Bank of England governor
  • Accretive Health said yesterday it’s working with advisers to address concerns raised by Minnesota AG that it puts bedside pressure on patients to pay bills
  • Haemonetics agreed yesterday to buy blood-collection business of Pall Corp. for $551m in cash
  • Apple said to have held talks to let subscribers of Epix movie chanel watch films on its set-top box
  • Starwood Hotels plans to re-enter Iraqi market almost 20 years after exiting as a result of Gulf War
  • BOX Options Exchange won approval April 27 to become a U.S. securities exchange
  • Dewey Leboeuf said to end Greenberg Traurig merger talks
  • Analysts predict U.S. shares will rise this year to boost the S&P 500 to record, even as Wall Street strategists say the best is already over for American equities
  • No U.S. IPOs expected to price: Bloomberg data
  • Week Ahead : U.S. Jobs, French Debate, Buffett: April 30-May 5 


    • CNA Financial (CNA) 6am, $0.68
    • Humana (HUM) 6am, $1.55
    • Loews (L) 6am, $0.90
    • LyondellBasel (LYB) 6am, $1.04
    • Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI) 7am, $1.59
    • Harman International Industries (HAR) 8am, $0.67
    • UDR (UDR) 8am, $0.34
    • DiamondRock Hospitality Co (DRH) 8am, $0.07
    • Mercury General (MCY) 8:30am, $0.68
    • Canadian Oil Sands Ltd (COS CN) 4pm, C$0.54
    • SBA Communications (SBAC) 4pm, $(0.18)
    • Veeco Instruments (VECO) 4pm, $0.22
    • Anadarko Petroleum (APC) 4:01pm, $0.83
    • Hologic (HOLX) 4:01pm, $0.33
    • CNO Financial Group (CNO) 4:02pm, $0.13
    • Plum Creek Timber Co (PCL) 4:02pm, $0.24
    • Shutterfly (SFLY) 4:02pm, $(0.21)
    • PMC-Sierra (PMCS) 4:04pm, $0.05
    • PartnerRe (PRE) 4:04pm, $2.01
    • Forest Oil (FST) 4:05pm, $0.20
    • Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) 4:08pm, $0.37
    • Flowserve (FLS) 4:09pm, $1.61
    • Herbalife (HLF) 4:10pm, $0.81
    • McKesson (MCK) 4:10pm, $2.06
    • FMC (FMC) 4:30pm, $1.85
    • Masco (MAS) 5pm, $(0.01)
    • Suncor Energy (SU CN) 10pm, C$0.81
    • Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) Post-Mkt, $0.74 


  • Speculators Miss Biggest U.S. Corn Sale Since 1994: Commodities
  • Wheat Drops as U.S. Crop Development Accelerates; Soybeans Fall
  • Brent Oil Heads for First Monthly Drop Since December on Demand
  • Copper Falls 0.5% to $8,376 a Ton; Nickel Declines, Tin Gains
  • Gold May Gain as Lower Borrowing Costs, Debt Crisis Spurs Demand
  • White Sugar Rises as Lower Prices May Spur Demand; Coffee Falls
  • Mercuria Said to Hire Perkins as Agriculture Head in Singapore
  • Palm Oil Drops to Pare Monthly Advance on Higher Output Concern
  • U.S. to End Fuel Exports as Oil Discount Disappears, Facts Says
  • Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Gasoline Bets on Prices: Energy Markets
  • Roomier Pig Pens May Bolster Pork Prices as European Output Ebbs
  • Merkel’s Green Jobs Drive Faltering With Cuts for Solar: Energy
  • Record-High Gasoline Burdens Consumers as Europe Fights Slowdown
  • Funds Miss Biggest Corn Sale Since 1994
  • Fortescue Seen Luring Anglo-to-Glencore on China Iron: Real M&A
  • China Forestry Logging Assets Hold Value, Investor Carlyle Says
  • Crude April Trading Range Tightest Since 1995: Chart of the Day 





US DOLLAR – whether people want to admit it or not, the US economic data was bad last week (jobless claims and GDP) – if the only thing left keeping asset prices afloat is the hope for iQe4, that’s dicey. We’ve seen this movie before – holding the USD down like a ball under water (down 6 of the last 7 wks) ends in deflationary tears when it pops back up.


















The Hedgeye Macro Team


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This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

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We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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