THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 30, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.88% downside to 1391 and 0.33% upside to 1408. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 


EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/27 NYSE 1005
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of 1071
  • VOLUME: on 4/27 NYSE 787.79
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 0.97%
  • VIX:  as of 4/27 was at 16.32
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.49%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -30.26%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/27 closed at 2.21
    • Up from the day prior at 1.31 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


GROWTH – slowing, sequentially, is now a reported fact – but Treasury Yields (10yr 1.93%) and Equity Markets (making lower-highs, globally, since Feb-March) have been very stealth in discounting that before the Sell-Side has. This morning’s South Korean Export number was awful at flat y/y (ie no growth).

 

STAGFLATION – politically, it’s harder to say we have that in the USA right now (b/c of how we calculate GDP and inflation) than it is to say they have it in Europe. In Italy, the CPI was reported at +3.8% y/y for April, which is nauseatingly high relative to the no growth in Italian GDP (or France, Spain, etc). Brent oil $119 is a consumption killer. 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 38
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.92
    • Down from prior day’s trading of 1.93
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.67
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.68 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Mar., est. 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Spending, Mar., est. 0.4% (prior 0.8%)
  • 9:45am: Chicago PMI, Apr., est. 60.5 (prior 62.2)
  • 10:00am: NAPM-Milwaukee, Apr., est. 53 (prior 51.8)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manu. Act., Apr., est. 8 (prior 10.8)
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. bills
  • 5:30pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on jobs in Beverly Hills, CA 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda visits White House to discuss U.S.-Japan Security Alliance, economy and trade
    • President Obama to speak at Building and Construction Trades legislative conference
    • House, Senate not in session
    • Supreme Court issues orders only

 WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Collective Brands said to select group made up of Wolverine World Wide, Golden Gate Capital as leading contender to buy co.
  • Warner Chilcott said to be weighing options including possible sale after receiving interest from strategic, private-equity buyers
  • Spain’s economy enters second recession since 2009
  • LightSquared said to receive weeklong extension from creditors
  • Consumer spending in the U.S. probably climbed 0.4% in March as incomes  grew, economists est.
  • Occupy Wall Street demonstrators plan marches across the world tomorrow calling attention to what they say are abuses of power, wealth
  • Chrysler’s Dodge Dart overcoming snags before start of production, will have high-mileage version ready in 3Q
  • Apple uses offices in states other than California, countries outside the U.S. to help minimize its overall tax burden: NYT
  • Yahoo urged shareholders not to back board nominees put forward by holder Third Point
  • Boeing will ship all four 787 composite-plastic Dreamliners to Air India, the carrier that demanded $1b in compensation after production delays
  • Apple, Google deserve to be part of Dow Jones industrial average: Barron’s
  • Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O’Neill reported by Sunday Times to be a candidate for Bank of England governor
  • Accretive Health said yesterday it’s working with advisers to address concerns raised by Minnesota AG that it puts bedside pressure on patients to pay bills
  • Haemonetics agreed yesterday to buy blood-collection business of Pall Corp. for $551m in cash
  • Apple said to have held talks to let subscribers of Epix movie chanel watch films on its set-top box
  • Starwood Hotels plans to re-enter Iraqi market almost 20 years after exiting as a result of Gulf War
  • BOX Options Exchange won approval April 27 to become a U.S. securities exchange
  • Dewey Leboeuf said to end Greenberg Traurig merger talks
  • Analysts predict U.S. shares will rise this year to boost the S&P 500 to record, even as Wall Street strategists say the best is already over for American equities
  • No U.S. IPOs expected to price: Bloomberg data
  • Week Ahead : U.S. Jobs, French Debate, Buffett: April 30-May 5 

EARNINGS:

    • CNA Financial (CNA) 6am, $0.68
    • Humana (HUM) 6am, $1.55
    • Loews (L) 6am, $0.90
    • LyondellBasel (LYB) 6am, $1.04
    • Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI) 7am, $1.59
    • Harman International Industries (HAR) 8am, $0.67
    • UDR (UDR) 8am, $0.34
    • DiamondRock Hospitality Co (DRH) 8am, $0.07
    • Mercury General (MCY) 8:30am, $0.68
    • Canadian Oil Sands Ltd (COS CN) 4pm, C$0.54
    • SBA Communications (SBAC) 4pm, $(0.18)
    • Veeco Instruments (VECO) 4pm, $0.22
    • Anadarko Petroleum (APC) 4:01pm, $0.83
    • Hologic (HOLX) 4:01pm, $0.33
    • CNO Financial Group (CNO) 4:02pm, $0.13
    • Plum Creek Timber Co (PCL) 4:02pm, $0.24
    • Shutterfly (SFLY) 4:02pm, $(0.21)
    • PMC-Sierra (PMCS) 4:04pm, $0.05
    • PartnerRe (PRE) 4:04pm, $2.01
    • Forest Oil (FST) 4:05pm, $0.20
    • Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) 4:08pm, $0.37
    • Flowserve (FLS) 4:09pm, $1.61
    • Herbalife (HLF) 4:10pm, $0.81
    • McKesson (MCK) 4:10pm, $2.06
    • FMC (FMC) 4:30pm, $1.85
    • Masco (MAS) 5pm, $(0.01)
    • Suncor Energy (SU CN) 10pm, C$0.81
    • Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) Post-Mkt, $0.74 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Speculators Miss Biggest U.S. Corn Sale Since 1994: Commodities
  • Wheat Drops as U.S. Crop Development Accelerates; Soybeans Fall
  • Brent Oil Heads for First Monthly Drop Since December on Demand
  • Copper Falls 0.5% to $8,376 a Ton; Nickel Declines, Tin Gains
  • Gold May Gain as Lower Borrowing Costs, Debt Crisis Spurs Demand
  • White Sugar Rises as Lower Prices May Spur Demand; Coffee Falls
  • Mercuria Said to Hire Perkins as Agriculture Head in Singapore
  • Palm Oil Drops to Pare Monthly Advance on Higher Output Concern
  • U.S. to End Fuel Exports as Oil Discount Disappears, Facts Says
  • Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Gasoline Bets on Prices: Energy Markets
  • Roomier Pig Pens May Bolster Pork Prices as European Output Ebbs
  • Merkel’s Green Jobs Drive Faltering With Cuts for Solar: Energy
  • Record-High Gasoline Burdens Consumers as Europe Fights Slowdown
  • Funds Miss Biggest Corn Sale Since 1994
  • Fortescue Seen Luring Anglo-to-Glencore on China Iron: Real M&A
  • China Forestry Logging Assets Hold Value, Investor Carlyle Says
  • Crude April Trading Range Tightest Since 1995: Chart of the Day 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


US DOLLAR – whether people want to admit it or not, the US economic data was bad last week (jobless claims and GDP) – if the only thing left keeping asset prices afloat is the hope for iQe4, that’s dicey. We’ve seen this movie before – holding the USD down like a ball under water (down 6 of the last 7 wks) ends in deflationary tears when it pops back up.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 


ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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