The Data Point Bears Couldn't Afford

Never mind all of the reasons that the revisionist economists are citing for the drop in this morning’s weekly jobless claims – the bottom line is that the # came in way lower than expectations, the SP500 continues to climb it’s wall of worry as a result.

Market’s move on expectations, not what your CNBC media entertainers attempt to explain AFTER those market’s have moved.

Initial Claims came in at 492,000 – that’s 94,000 lower from last week, and 60,000 lower than the 4 week moving average (see chart below).

While we do not manage risk on one week data points, we do manage it proactively toward what may occur on the margin, relative to expectations.

Goldman, and whomever remains in the ‘Investment Banking Inc.’ camp that is calling for the apocalypse of a 2009 US Employment picture might want to call their geopolitical departments and re-run their numbers. Oh wait, do they have people who analyze political tail risk in their models?

The USA has lost 1.9M jobs this year. Obama will be adding 3M. We proactively predicted a 6-7% unemployment almost one year ago today (unemployment is now 6.7%)… we are not proactively predicting that we hit the 1982 unemployment peak rate, nor are we ready to take our estimate above 8%. As the facts change, we will… an important one changed on the jobless claims front today.

Keith R. McCullough
Research Edge LLC