No change in our April forecast
Average daily table revenues (ADTR) actually declined 2% sequentially this past week, but up 39% YoY. There is no change to our monthly forecast of HK$23.5-24.5 million, up 18-23% YoY. With the opening of Sands Cotai Central (SCC) and recent higher expectations, GGR probably needs to grow around 25% for the investment community to get excited.
Surprisingly, Sands China’s share is falling below trend this month despite the opening of SCC. Moreover, market share has gone from 17.8% to 17.2% to 16.6%, respectively, in the first 3 weeks of April, with SCC opening in the middle of week 2. We have heard that Sands China may have played unlucky on the VIP tables and it is still too early to make any lasting judgments. Surprisingly, WYNN and Galaxy are the clear winners so far this month. Galaxy is maintaining the strong share it attained in March. Galaxy Macau still looks vulnerable given its location and likely Mass overlap with SCC but so far so good for that company.