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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 10, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.59% downside to 1374 and 0.64% upside to 1391. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - two

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 


EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 4/09 NYSE -1747
    • Down from the prior day’s trading of -410
  • VOLUME: on 4/09 NYSE 724.55
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of +0.73%
  • VIX:  as of 4/09 was at 18.81
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of +12.63%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -19.62%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 04/09 closed at 2.10
    • Decrease from 2.51 the day prior, -16.33%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 39
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 2.05
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.74
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.73 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Business optimism, est. 95.0 (prior 94.3)
  • 7:30am/8:45am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 8:30am: WASDE: Soybean, corn, cotton, wheat
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP economic optimism, est. 48.5 (prior 47.5)
  • 10:00am: JOLTs Job Openings, Feb.
  • 10:00am: Wholesale Inventories, Feb., est. 0.5% (prior 0.4%)
  • 12pm: DOE short-term outlook
  • 12:30pm: Dallas Fed’s Fisher speaks on U.S. economy in Norman, Oklahoma
  • 12:45pm: Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart gives welcome remarks at Atlanta Fed conference in Stone Mountain, Georgia
  • 2:30pm: Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks to Southern Minnesota Initiative Foundation in Nicollet, Minnesota
  • 4:30pm: API inventories 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Obama goes to Southeast Florida, expected to urge Congress to pass the Buffett rule, attend campaign fundraisers
    • Federal Housing Finance Agency Acting Director Ed DeMarco speaks at the Brookings Institution in Washington on principal reduction, 9:30am 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Alcoa is the first Dow component to report 1Q earnings after the close, kicking off the “traditional” earnings season
  • Bernanke calls on regulators to limit risks of shadow banking
  • IMF releases analysis of global economy in advance of its spring meeting later this month, 9am
  • China reports unexpected March trade surplus as import growth trailed forecasts
  • Bank of Japan keeps key rate, asset-purchase and credit lending programs unchanged
  • U.S. to ask federal appeals court to restore requirement that pictures of diseased lungs and other consequences of smoking be on cigarette packages
  • Express Scripts purchase of Medco to be challenged by pharma trade groups in court
  • CVC may seek more than $2b from Formula One IPO
  • Sony posts record loss after taking $3.7b charge to write down deferred tax assets; watch suppliers
  • Sharp posts $4.7b loss for year, wider than it forecast
  • Foxtel gets antitrust approval to buy Austar after agreeing to drop exclusive rights to Nickelodeon, National Geographic
  • Calpers said to be seeking to sell about $1.5b in private- equity fund stakes
  • U.S. Department of Agriculture releases estimates for global production, consumption and stockpiles of wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton 

EARNINGS:

    • Supervalu (SVU) 8am, $0.35
    • Mattress Firm (MFRM) 4:01p, $0.19
    • Alcoa (AA) 4:05pm, ($0.04) 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


COMMODITIES – Dollar up days crush commodities; evidently dollar down days don’t help them now either as “weakening demand” rolls off the tongues of most who’s business is global. The CRB index is in what we call a Bearish Formation. Not good. Brent Oil broke $124.23 TRADE line support.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


DAX – from an employment and stability perspective, Germany is definitely a healthier economy than the USA’s right now and the correction in German stocks is 2x that of the SP500’s; down -0.9% to start the wk (down -6.2% from the YTD high established March 16th).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


HANG SENG – Hong Kong did not like the Chinese demand message for March w/ Chinese Imports only running +5.3% y/y; HK traded down another -1.1% overnight, taking the Hang Seng’s correction to -6.1% since peaking Feb 29th.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team