Initial jobless claims came in at 348k versus consensus 350k and 353k the week prior (revised up from 351k).  


THE HBM: MCD, SONC, SBUX, WEN - moving claims



Commentary from CEO Keith McCullough


Got global Growth Slowing? Markets are starting to:

  1. INDIA – Energy stocks (XLE) stopped making higher-YTD-highs on Feb 24 and India stopped going up on Feb 21; this morn India’s Sensex was down another -1.8% on fundamentals (Growth Slowing As Inflation Accelerates) and is down over 6% from its YTD high. India’s Yield Curve has pancaked.
  2. SPAIN – Growth Slowing was the most obvious message for the PMI reports across Europe for the month of March. Central Planners can arrest stock market deflations in the short-term, but in the long-run, their ideas to stop economic gravity are dead. Spain’s IBEX remains bearish across all 3 of our risk mgt durations (down -1.5% this morn)
  3. OIL – probably the only good news this morning is that Oil stopped going up. We sold our long Oil position and took our asset allocation to Commodities to 0% because the US Dollar looks like it could put on a big move to the upside again. Immediate-term support lines that broke for WTIC and Brent are $106.79 and $124.89, respectively.

Deflating The Inflation takes more time than a day. Tops in Energy and Basic Materials stocks are processes, not points. I shorted FCX yesterday too.







THE HBM: MCD, SONC, SBUX, WEN - subsector





MCD: McDonald’s CEO Jim Skinner is stepping down to be replaced by COO Don Thompson effective July 1.


SONC: Sonic reported 2QFY12 EPS of $0.03 versus $0.02.  Company same-store sales were in line with preannounced results of 3.1% but 1% of that was due to the extra day in February due to the leap year and there was some favorable weather impact also.  Sonic continues to perform inconsistently, from an operational perspective.


SBUX: The Starbucks AGM was another success for the company yesterday.  FY12 guidance was unchanged.  The company offered interesting commentary on international markets including the potential of drive-thrus in Europe as well as an initial look at its new Evolution Fresh concept.  Oppenheimer raised its PT on Starbucks this morning to $62 from $56.


WEN: Wendy’s is releasing a new Spicy Chicken Guacamole Club.  From a mix perspective, this product could help the company alleviate pressure from beef costs, although the price point was not disclosed.




GMCR: Green Mountain gained 10% on accelerating volume as the company announced its agreement with Starbucks yesterday to expand their partnership to make, market, distribute and sell Starbuck’s Vue coffee packs for use in Green Mountain’s Keurig Vue single-cup machines.


KKD: Krispy Kreme stocks plunged after the company reported a 4QFY12 earnings miss on Tuesday.


COSI: Cosi gained on accelerating volume – again. 







RT: Ruby Tuesday shares gained on accelerating volume following Raymond James’ upgrade yesterday.





Howard Penney

Managing Director


Rory Green



Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more