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THE HBM: MCD, SONC, SBUX, WEN

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

MACRO NOTES

 

Consumer


Initial jobless claims came in at 348k versus consensus 350k and 353k the week prior (revised up from 351k).  

 

THE HBM: MCD, SONC, SBUX, WEN - moving claims

 

 

Commentary from CEO Keith McCullough

 

Got global Growth Slowing? Markets are starting to:

  1. INDIA – Energy stocks (XLE) stopped making higher-YTD-highs on Feb 24 and India stopped going up on Feb 21; this morn India’s Sensex was down another -1.8% on fundamentals (Growth Slowing As Inflation Accelerates) and is down over 6% from its YTD high. India’s Yield Curve has pancaked.
  2. SPAIN – Growth Slowing was the most obvious message for the PMI reports across Europe for the month of March. Central Planners can arrest stock market deflations in the short-term, but in the long-run, their ideas to stop economic gravity are dead. Spain’s IBEX remains bearish across all 3 of our risk mgt durations (down -1.5% this morn)
  3. OIL – probably the only good news this morning is that Oil stopped going up. We sold our long Oil position and took our asset allocation to Commodities to 0% because the US Dollar looks like it could put on a big move to the upside again. Immediate-term support lines that broke for WTIC and Brent are $106.79 and $124.89, respectively.

Deflating The Inflation takes more time than a day. Tops in Energy and Basic Materials stocks are processes, not points. I shorted FCX yesterday too.

 

KM

 

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HBM: MCD, SONC, SBUX, WEN - subsector

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

MCD: McDonald’s CEO Jim Skinner is stepping down to be replaced by COO Don Thompson effective July 1.

 

SONC: Sonic reported 2QFY12 EPS of $0.03 versus $0.02.  Company same-store sales were in line with preannounced results of 3.1% but 1% of that was due to the extra day in February due to the leap year and there was some favorable weather impact also.  Sonic continues to perform inconsistently, from an operational perspective.

 

SBUX: The Starbucks AGM was another success for the company yesterday.  FY12 guidance was unchanged.  The company offered interesting commentary on international markets including the potential of drive-thrus in Europe as well as an initial look at its new Evolution Fresh concept.  Oppenheimer raised its PT on Starbucks this morning to $62 from $56.

 

WEN: Wendy’s is releasing a new Spicy Chicken Guacamole Club.  From a mix perspective, this product could help the company alleviate pressure from beef costs, although the price point was not disclosed.

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

 

GMCR: Green Mountain gained 10% on accelerating volume as the company announced its agreement with Starbucks yesterday to expand their partnership to make, market, distribute and sell Starbuck’s Vue coffee packs for use in Green Mountain’s Keurig Vue single-cup machines.

 

KKD: Krispy Kreme stocks plunged after the company reported a 4QFY12 earnings miss on Tuesday.

 

COSI: Cosi gained on accelerating volume – again. 

 

 

CASUAL DINING

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

 

RT: Ruby Tuesday shares gained on accelerating volume following Raymond James’ upgrade yesterday.

  

THE HBM: MCD, SONC, SBUX, WEN - stocks

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


MCD: THE END OF AN ERA

Congratulations Don Thompson and we wish the best to Mr. Skinner.  COO Don Thompson will take over effective July 1.

 

Since I have been covering McDonald’s, there have been five different CEOs and none has stepped down as decorated as Jim Skinner is.  The timing of his decision is surprising but, given how long he has been at the company – 41 years – him stepping down is not an undue cause for concern. 

 

Mike Quinlan (CEO from March 1987 – July 1998): The Quinlan era was very different.  The MCD of today is not the public company it was in the 1990’s.  Mr. Quinlan did not have a relationship with “Wall Street”, in fact he shunned analysts.  His primary achievement was the dramatic overseas growth of McDonald’s.  The stock was up more than 400% during his tenure.

 

Jack Greenberg (CEO from July 1998 – January 2003): Unfortunately Mr. Greenberg held the top spot during a tumultuous period for the company.  Excessive growth, particularly in the USA, was a problem for McDonald’s.  It was Mr. Greenberg’s idea to launch salads in the Spring of 2003 which lead to the first positive month of same-store sales after 13 painful months.  What he could not shake off was seven quarters of earnings disappointments.   The stock was down roughly 60% during his tenure

 

Jim Cantalupo (CEO from January 2003 – April 2004): Mr. Cantalupo gets credited with bringing about the “Plan to Win” strategy in 2003, but passed away just as the company was turning the corner.  The stock has gained 60% during his tenure, what ended up being the beginning of a long upward trend for the stock.

 

Charlie Bell (CEO from April 2004 – November 2004): It was during this period in McDonald’s’ history that it became the role model company for always having a succession plan in place.  Mr. Bell passed away mere months after taking the reins at MCD.

 

Jim Skinner (CEO November 2004 – June 2012): When Mr. Skinner took the helm at MCD I joked to myself that it was his job not to mess things up.  With the stock up more than 200% during his tenure, he certainly did his job!

 

The question that comes to mind most is, “why now?”  Is it just a coincidence that the company just announced its first earnings disappointment of the Skinner era?  Does he see something investors do not?  The economic turmoil in Europe, among other factors, poses a significant challenge to McDonald’s going forward.

 

Of course, it is difficult to know why Skinner is stepping down now but after 41 years with the company he deserves some time off.  It will be difficult for Mr. Thompson to achieve the same results that Jim Skinner did but, as a veteran of 22 years, he is also a very capable executive.

 

To those of us that live and breathe MCD every day, Mr. Skinner retiring is not a surprise, as it could have happened any time in the past year, but the timing was somewhat surprising.  Mr. Thompson is not a surprising choice to take over but we are left wondering if there is any reason for the change taking place in July.

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

Roped In

“In the contest between inflation and deflation, the rope is the dollar.”

-James Rickards

 

I’ve finally jumped into a book I’ve been really excited about, James Rickards’ “Currency Wars”, and the preface does not disappoint. From a risk management perspective, I couldn’t agree more with the aforementioned quote.

 

Rickards takes the currency debate right up the middle on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve reminding us that “by printing money on an unprecedented scale, Bernanke has become a twenty-first century Pangloss, hoping for the best and quite unprepared for the worst.”

 

As a reminder to The Ben Bernank and his central planning followers, hope is not a risk management process.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

On Tuesday, I bought back my Strong Dollar position via the UUP. Yesterday, I sold my only remaining long Commodity position (Oil), taking my asset allocation to Commodities back down to ZERO percent.

 

Even though he’s never traded a Global Macro market with his own capital at risk in his life, Bernanke would probably smile when considering my 0% strategy move. The man likes zeroes.

 

The Zero Bound, or a 0% “risk-free” rate of return, concept is littered with unintended consequences. If you don’t believe that, ask the Japanese. They’ve had 20 years of anemic economic growth and will have 25% less people living in Japan come 2050.

 

If you do believe in the globally interconnected risk associated with the world’s reserve currency, you probably get why this entire “contest between inflation and deflation” comes down to what Bernanke/Geithner do to US Dollar policy (monetary and fiscal). When it comes to commodities inflating/deflating the CRB Index (19 commodities) has a 60-day correlation to the US Dollar of -0.64%.

 

Correlation? Yes Keynesians of the academic gridiron, unite! Correlation Risk in markets doesn’t always imply causality. But sometimes it does.

 

So why get long the US Dollar right here?

  1. It’s going up today, and we know performance chasers just love a good chase
  2. It is breaking out above our intermediate-term TREND support line of $79.33 again
  3. It has fortified its base, holding our longer-term TAIL support line of $76.11
  4. The Japanese Yen has moved into crash/crisis mode (bullish USD/YEN)
  5. The Euro continues to fail at $1.33 resistance as European Growth Slowing continues

Got Growth Slowing?

 

Apparently consensus doesn’t want to agree with us on this yet. In a note earlier this week I highlighted the Credit Suisse call to action that “economic momentum indicators suggest global and US growth is still well above consensus” – and while the people I used to work with there are good people, that call on growth is simply just wrong this morning.

 

1.   ASIA: China and India, in particular, are showing glaring signs of Growth Slowing sequentially here in March. Whether it was India’s stock market down another -1.8% overnight (down -6.1% since the Feb YTD top) on a mounting deficit problem or both the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng snapping their respective immediate-term TRADE lines of support in the last week as China’s PMI (HSBC) was printed overnight at a fresh 4-month low – it’s all there. #GrowthSlowing

 

2.   EUROPE: Inflation Slows Growth; particularly when Europeans have to deal with Brent Oil prices of $122-127/barrel – never mind being bent over a barrel by that sneaky little Keynesian critter called debt (which structurally impairs long-term growth). Looking at Europe’s PMI numbers for March, here’s what the river cards look like:

 

Manufacturing:

A)     France 47.6 MAR (exp. 50.2) vs 50 FEB

B)      Germany 48.1 MAR (exp. 51) vs 50.2 FEB

C)      Eurozone 47.7 MAR (exp. 49.5) vs 49 FEB

 

Services:

D)     France 50 MAR (exp. 50.3) vs 50 FEB

E)      Germany 51.8 MAR (exp. 53.1) vs 52.8 FEB

F)      Eurozone 48.7 MAR (exp. 49.2) vs 48.8 FEB

 

Now we all know that Swiss turned American bankers can get creative in their accounting, but by our Canadian-American math, this morning’s Global Growth data is well below consensus.

 

How about US Growth?

  1. It has never NOT slowed with oil prices over $100/barrel (that’s why the FEB ISM number dropped 3% from JAN)
  2. Since 71% of US GDP = Consumption, real (inflation adjusted) growth slows, big time, when inflation accelerates
  3. Q4’s US GDP print of 3.0% carried a 0.86% Deflator; that deflator should double or triple in Q1

In other words, our Global Macro Model will not be surprised if US GDP growth gets cut in 1/2 , sequentially, from Q4 of 2011 to Q1/Q2 of 2012. If we don’t see a Strong Dollar (like we did in Q4) soon, you’ll see weakening US Consumption.

 

So that brings me to a comma, instead of a full stop. If you are staying one step ahead of me, you’re going to ask if Strong Dollar would get me more bullish on both US Economic Growth and US Equities. The answer to that (as it was every day in January 2012 up until Ben Shalom Bernanke decided to debauch the Dollar on January 25th), is yes.

 

Whether our almighty central planners like to admit it or not, we’ve all been Roped In. This “contest between inflation and deflation” has been called “risk on and risk off.” But risk is always on – especially the globally interconnected stuff. Risk never sleeps.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index, and the SP500 are now $1, $122.12-124.89, $79.33-80.58, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Roped In - Chart of the Day

 

Roped In - Virtual Portfolio


An Easier Solution

This note was originally published at 8am on March 08, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“At the end of this decade, in the year 1980, the United States will not be dependent on any other country for the energy we need to provide our jobs, to heat our homes, and to keep our transportation moving.”

- Richard Nixon, 1973

 

The current obsession in the US with energy independence is not a new one.  Richard Nixon, quoted above, embarked on “Project Independence” after the 1973 OPEC embargo led to a world oil crisis; nearly every president since has set a similar goal – none have come close to reaching it.  In 1973 the US imported 34% of its consumed petroleum; today, we import 45%.

 

In a speech yesterday, President Obama summarized his broad energy plan, “If we are going to control our energy future, then we’ve got to have an all-of-the-above strategy.  We’ve got to develop every source of American energy -- not just oil and gas, but wind power and solar power, nuclear power, biofuels.”

 

That sounds like a pretty good idea, particularly as prices at the pump have ripped to an all-time high for March, $3.76 per gallon.  As a direct result, gasoline consumption has fallen to the lowest level in over a decade, and is running 6.5% below last year’s level.

 

While energy independence is not an original idea, is it more realistic this time around?

 

It’s key to understand that the US does not have an energy crisis – it has a liquids fuel shortage.  71% of the petroleum consumed in the US is by the transportation sector; only 1% is used to generate electric power.  The US is actually abundant in its two largest power-generating sources, coal and natural gas, with the 1st and 6th largest recoverable reserves in the world, respectively.

 

Currently, solar and wind can only be used to generate electricity, so it is difficult to see how developing these renewable sources will lower gasoline prices or make us any more energy independent.  Further, because of issues with intermittency (the sun shines during the day, the wind blows at night, and the energy cannot be stored), low electricity conversion rates, large space requirements, and higher-than-expected operating and maintenance costs, solar and wind are simply not economic.  Even with government subsidies and private investment, the EIA estimates that solar will generate less than 1% of US electricity in 2035.  Solyndra…?  First Solar…?

 

Nuclear power, like solar and wind, can do very little to solve our liquids fuel shortage, as 100% of nuclear energy generated in the US is for electricity.  Regardless, there has been almost no new nuclear construction in the US in the last 30 years because of rising capital costs and risks, particularly after the nuclear disasters of the 80’s.  It is puzzling why President Obama is intent on revitalizing nuclear in the US only months after Japan’s Fukushima disaster.  And nuclear power is hardly a domestic resource – the US imports more than 80% of its required uranium.

 

Ethanol and biodiesel supplied 0.5% of the world’s primary energy in 2010; but increasing biofuel production comes at the cost of the world’s food and water supply.  If the US were to use its entire corn harvest to produce ethanol, it would only replace 8% of the country’s annual gasoline demand.  Cellulosic ethanol (ethanol produced from agricultural waste) has less of an impact on the world’s food, water, and fertilizer sources, though is challenged by extraction and aggregation costs as well as low energy density.

 

This is not a smear campaign against alternative and renewable energy sources.  With investment and time, technologies that are not currently economic, viable, or scalable one day will be, lessening our need for petroleum fuels.  The US should invest more (wisely) in energy R&D, starting with natural gas vehicles and the necessary refueling infrastructure.

 

But energy transitions take time.  Not years – decades, perhaps even generations.  Natural gas took 60 years from the time it was first commercially extracted (1870s) before it was 5% of the world’s primary energy market.

 

President Obama stated earlier this week that, “Folks are getting killed right now with gas prices.”  Touting alternative energy does nothing to fix that; neither does blaming rising oil prices on tensions in Iran, growth in China, and those pesky Wall Street speculators.  The only legitimate way to lower gasoline prices in the immediate term is the one that most of our leaders never consider: raising interest rates.

 

Near-zero interest rates and massive liquidity injections from the developed world’s central banks have driven investors into real assets, like oil and gold, in an effort to preserve purchasing power.  Net length among non-commercial traders in NYMEX crude oil futures and options is 333,000 contracts, nearly double the July 2008 high of 170,000 contracts when oil spiked to $145 per barrel.  In 1991, there were 3.3 dollars of money supply to every 1 barrel of oil; today there are 7.1 dollars chasing that 1 barrel.  And while the price of gasoline in dollars has increased 95% since March 2009, gasoline priced in an ounce of gold is only +7% over the same period.

 

Many factors influence the price of oil – supply, demand, geopolitical risk – but monetary policy is really the only one within the US’s control, and that policy cannot be any more inflationary for the price of petrol.  Recognition of such would be a refreshing dose of accountability; it would also give consumers a much-needed break at the pump.

 

Our immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Brent Oil, WTIC Oil, Natural Gas, US Dollar Index, and the SP500 are now $1693-1725, $123.31-126.81, $106.13-109.22, $2.21-2.39, $79.36-80.21, and 1345-1363, respectively.

 

Kevin Kaiser

Analyst

 

An Easier Solution - EL chart

 

An Easier Solution - vp 3 8


THE M3: S'PORE 1ST JUNKETS; MBS JUNKET CLAIM

The Macau Metro Monitor, March 22, 2012

 

 

CRA AWARDS LICENSES TO 2 MALAYSIAN JUNKET OPERATORS Business Times

The Casino Regulatory Authority of Singapore (CRA) has awarded the first batch of licences to two international market agents (IMA) Huang Yu Kiung and Low Chong Aun.  The two Malaysian junkets will operate at RWS.

 

CRA said the IMAs will focus on bringing in foreign high rollers to casinos here, and they will not target locals.  It is in the midst of evaluating a few other applications and conducting probity checks for these applications. Twelve applications have been rejected.

 

'The robust regulatory regime would ensure that licensed IMAs conduct business in a tightly regulated environment, said the CRA.  The licenses will be issued for an 1-year duration and licensed IMAs must ensure that they continue to remain suitable to hold the licences.

 

ANOTHER MBS SUIT, ANOTHER JUNKET CLAIM Business Times

Allegations of junket activity at Marina Bay Sands have surfaced again, this time in court papers filed by Takami Shinichi, a Singapore-based Japanese businessman being sued by the casino over a $2 million gambling debt.  Shinichi, managing director of Avixs Master Fund Pte Ltd, claims in a High Court affidavit that he gained access to MBS's VIP gaming rooms through Chujo Tatsuya, a Nevada-licensed junket operator.  Shinichi said he met Tatsuya at a Las Vegas casino several years ago, that had arranged for him to gamble at MBS by putting him in touch with a Japanese VIP hostess and inviting him to MBS's opening party in late June 2010.

'I do not know if Mr Chujo received any 'kick-back' from the monies I gambled, but I do know that it is the practice for junkets to receive such commissions,' Mr Shinichi said. 'I am now told that if any player plays under a junket, no credit can be given to him.'

 

In Shinichi's case, Sunil Singh Panoo, his lawyer, argued that his $2 million debt is not enforceable because Mr Shinichi was not a premium player before he began gambling at the casino on June 25, 2010.  Shinichi also said in his affidavit that 'MBS didn't follow the rules and procedures required for credit transactions'.  But MBS disagreed, saying that Mr Shinichi was a premium player at its Paiza Club after he deposited $300,000 with the casino on June 17, 2010. 

 

The Casino Regulatory Authority said last night that it does not comment on ongoing court cases. 

Robert Goldstein, LVS president of global gaming operations, said that he is patiently waiting for the government's instruction.  "But I don't think it'll be that material either way. If they do approve junkets, it will be a very, very restrictive environment, which will make it difficult for those junkets that operate in Macau to be here.  So our approach has been and will continue to be very focused on developing a sales team that can go direct to customers. We do take on credit, direct credit, and are so far comfortable with that.'


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