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Old Habits

This note was originally published at 8am on March 07, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“He was a man of habits.”

-Benjamin Wallace

 

Earlier this week I cited a book I am enjoying, “The Billionaire’s Vinegar.” Today’s quote summarizes the unique persona of Michael Broadbent. Becoming the world’s most prominent wine auctioneer didn’t just happen.

 

Neither does risk in these globally interconnected markets. There is no such thing as “risk on” and “risk off.” In real life, risk is always on. Risk never sleeps.

 

Habits in this business can be as polarizing as a legacy media channel’s partisanship. Fortunately, Old Habits on Wall Street and News Media 2.0 are dying on opacity’s vine.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

I personally have a habit of selling on green and buying on red. Most of the time it saves me from grossly violating Rule #1 – Don’t Lose Money. Some of the time it doesn’t.

 

Buying too early is also called being wrong. The lynx-eyed Jeff Gundlach at Doubleline says “an investor is a trader who is under-water.” Great one liner – primarily because it royally annoys Captain Stock Picker. Especially after a day like yesterday.

 

Yesterday’s Short Covering Opportunity in everything that was immediate-term TRADE oversold was as obvious to me as the Short Selling Opportunities we were signaling 2.5% higher with the SP500 at its YTD highs last week.

 

On red, after a 3-day correction in Global Equities and Commodities, here’s what I’ve done in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model:

  1. Cash = 46% (down from 58% on Friday)
  2. Fixed Income = 24% (no change)
  3. US Equities = 18% (up from 12% on Friday)
  4. Commodities = 9% (sold Corn, bought Oil)
  5. International Equities = 3% (bought Canada)
  6. International FX = 0%

I’m not saying this positioning is right or wrong. The market will decide my fate on that. I’m just TimeStamping what I did. Repeatable Process is a habit too.

 

Getting longer here certainly has risks. In the Hedgeye Portfolio I went into yesterday’s open with 11 LONGS, 9 SHORTS. This morning I have 13 LONGS and 7 SHORTS. I’ll most likely tighten that up, selling some on green today.

 

Why sell on green? Isolating the USA, here are some of the risk management signals jumping off my notebook page today:

  1. SP500 broke immediate-term TRADE support of 1364 and now has a lower-high of resistance up at 1359
  2. Equity Volatility (VIX) broke out above immediate-term TRADE resistance of 17.72 yesterday; upside to 23.17
  3. US Equity Volumes continue to flash gnarly negative skew – accelerating volumes on the down days, not up ones
  4. S&P Sector Rotation call we made last week remains crystal clear (Utilities (XLU) best yesterday; Financials (XLF) the worst)
  5. S&P Sectors that have broken their immediate-term TRADE lines = 5 of 9 (XLB, XLI, XLF, XLV, and XLE)
  6. 10-year US Treasury Yields continue to signal Growth Slowing (trading below my TREND line of 2.03%)
  7. Yield Spread (10yr minus 2yr) is down 3bps week-over-week; benign but not bullish at 167bps wide
  8. US Dollar Index has moved back to bullish TRADE and TREND after Romney wins in Michigan and Ohio

That last point is probably the one that rings the political gong louder than any other. Why? Because people are partisan. But the math trumps partisanship and the fact of the matter is that the US Dollar Index is up +2.1% since Romney won in Michigan last week (see our newly minted Hedgeye Election Index). Causal? Correlated? Does it matter which?

 

Strong Dollar = Strong America. Period.

 

That’s the most bullish long-term (and sustainable) economic strategy I can paint for Americans right now. Sadly, it’s also the most unexpected. Old Habits, and the economists and politicians who get paid to pander to them, won’t agree with this because none of them have tried it in the last decade (i.e. so none of them can take credit for it when it works).

 

To get a stable and strong US Dollar will take both fiscal and monetary sacrifice. God forbid the stock market goes down for a few weeks to get there. But inflation expectations will go down too. Whether it was $20/barrel (average price of oil) between 1983-1989 or 1993-1999, these were the most bountiful decades or US job creation and economic prosperity, ever.

 

Ever is a long time. Old Habits of debauching your currency for short-term political votes should be held accountable to ever, too.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index, and the SP500 are now $1658-1694, $120.83-123.89, $79.32-79.91, and 1336-1359, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Old Habits - Chart of the Day

 

Old Habits - Virtual Portfolio


CZR: [OVER]VALUATION TECHNIQUES

Plenty of errors, omissions, and questionable valuations in the recent analyst reports.

 

 

With the expiration of the quite period, many analysts have published research on Caesar’s Entertainment.  Most of the reports will provide a thoughtful and detailed overview of CZR's current markets and future growth opportunities. However, even some of the reports with less than positive ratings contained some questionable modeling and valuation assumptions.  

 

Here are just a few:

  • Ignoring CZR’s material CODI obligations.  Page 14 of CZR’s 10k says it best:
    • “In connection with the debt that we reacquired in 2009 and 2010, we have deferred related CODI of $3.6 billion for tax purposes (net of Original Issue Discount (“OID”) interest expense, some of which must also be deferred to 2014 through 2018 under the ARRA). We are required to include one-fifth of the deferred CODI, net of deferred and regularly scheduled OID, in taxable income each year from 2014 through 2018. To the extent that our federal taxable income exceeds our available federal net operating loss carry forwards in those years, we will have a cash tax obligation. Our tax obligations related to CODI could be substantial and could materially and adversely affect our cash flows as a result of tax payments.”
  • Using the book value of debt vs. face value of debt will get analysts an incremental $2.86BN of “value” – more than enough to get to a lofty stock price target
    • Most of the discount to face comes from the Second-Priority Sr. Secured notes
    • From a purely academic stance, if you believe that CZR’s debt is impaired, it’s unlikely that there would be any equity value –since equity is a residual value by definition
    • If CZR experiences a V-shaped recovery, their debt will rally back to PAR and can also trade at a premium to PAR
  • Over-valuing the US online gaming option
    • Analyst don't like to highlight the fact that near term Federal legislation is looking less likely these days.  That said, most analysts would agree that under a State by State legalization structure, the potential market size is smaller and would take longer to materialize.  
    • To be clear, we agree that a legal US online poker market would present a huge opportunity for Caesar's. We also agree that given the strength of their WSOP brand and nationwide recognition they would likely garner a decent piece of the online pie. While their online operations in Europe are currently immaterial and are unlikely to become material in the intermediate future, the experience of operating legal online gaming does provide them an advantage over other US land based operators. That said with the probability of Federal legislation looking more cloudy than a few months ago we think that a deeper haircut to this option is appropriate.  
  • Bad assumptions surrounding Playtika
    • One analyst attributed all of Corporate and Other revenue reported in the 4th quarter to Playtika.  Roughly $20-22MM of that revenue had nothing to do with Playtika and reflected the run rate of revenues in that line item before Playtika was consolidated.  The other $46-48MM reported in the 4Q represents Playtika revenues.  However, that amount represents catch up accounting for 2 quarters, not just one.  We estimate that 4Q Playtika revenues were roughly $28-31MM.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 21, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -1.03% downside to 1391 and 0.39% upside to 1411. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


SENTIMENT – KM has been on the road in Canada and Minnesota for the last 3 days and the feedback loop was frothy; allegedly, markets can’t go down because they haven’t yet – with Growth Slowing and seasonality playing negative like it did in Q1 of 08, 2010, and 2011, we look ripe for a counter consensus move (II Bullish/Bearish Survey = 2500 bps wide to the Bull side this morn). 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1018 (-1784) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 711.14 (-1.42%)
  • VIX:  15.58 3.59% YTD PERFORMANCE: -33.42%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.22 from 1.28 (73.44%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 37.76
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.10%
  • 10-Year: 2.37 from 2.36
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.98 from 1.97 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, week of Mar. 16 (prior - 2.4%)
  • 9:30am: Fed Chairman Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Geithner testify on Europe debt crisis
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, Feb., est. 4.61m (prior 4.57m)
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales (M/m), Feb., est. 0.9% (prior 4.3%)
  • 10:30am: DoE inventories 

GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama travels to New Mexico, Nevada to tout energy strategy
  • Public Company Accounting Oversight Board meets on ways to enhance auditor independence, with remarks by Paul Volcker,
  • Harvey Pitt, Arthur Levitt. 8:45am
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Homeland Security Committee holds hearing on Iran, Hezbollah and threats to the U.S. 9:30am
    • House Oversight Committee hears from Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. 9:30am
    • Senate Banking subcommittee holds hearing on crowdfunding. 9:30am
    • House Appropriations subcommittee hears from Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Douglas Shulman on the agency’s budget request. 10am
    • House Appropriations subcommittee hears from Housing Secretary Shaun Donovan on the agency’s budget request. 10am
    • House Natural Resources holds hearing on gasoline prices. 10am
    • Senate Homeland Security holds hearing on President Barack Obama’s government reorganization plan. 10am
    • House Budget Committee marks up Chairman Paul Ryan’s 2013 budget proposal. 10:30am
    • Senate Judiciary subcommittee holds hearing on the Verizon-cable deals. 2pm
    • House Financial Services Committee meets to consider issuing a subpoena to MF Global Holdings employee Edith O’Brien. 2pm
    • Senate Homeland Security Committee hears from Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on the agency’s budget request. 2:30pm
    • Senate Appropriations subcommittee hears from Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler on the agency’s budget. 2:30pm 

WHAT TO WATCH:    

  • Fed Chairman Bernanke says Europe must aid banks even as strains have eased; testifies before House committee today
  • Mitt Romney wins Illinois GOP primary with 47% to Rick Santorum’s 35%
  • Vantiv, payment processor that started as a unit of Fifth Third, seeks to raise as much as $529m in IPO
  • Previously owned U.S. home sales may have risen 0.9% to 4.61m annual rate in Feb., fastest since May 2010, economists est.
  • CMS Medcac meets on anti-VEGF treatment for diabetic macular edema; watch Valeant, Regeron, Roche
  • GlaxoSmithKline, Johnson & Johnson are forming a $200m fund with Index Ventures to invest in early-stage biotechnology cos.
  • Transocean holders’ suits over rig explosion dismissed by judge
  • Geithner agrees to written testimony in Lehman’s JPMorgan suit
  • Ziggo raised ~EU804m ($1.1b) in IPO selling at top end of range
  • Thomson Reuters nears sale of health-care business: WSJ
  • Microsoft pledges to drive price down to bid to become top seller in China smartphone market 

EARNINGS:

    • General Mills (GIS) 6:57am, $0.56
    • Actuant (ATU) 7:30am, $0.38
    • Fred’s (FRED) 7:45am, $0.24
    • Alacer Gold (ASR CN) Pre-Mkt, $0.16
    • Sonic (SONC) 4pm, $0.02
    • Shoe Carnival (SCVL) 4:01pm, $0.21
    • Clarcor (CLC) 4:02pm, $0.47
    • Discover Financial Services (DFS) 4:15pm, $0.94
    • Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) 5:15pm, $0.32

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Appalachian Coal Fights for Survival on Shale Boom: Commodities
  • Copper Advances on Indications of Recovering Economy in U.S.
  • Oil Rebounds From Biggest Drop in Three Months as Supplies Fall
  • Gold May Advance as a Weaker Dollar Prompts Investment Demand
  • Sugar Falls in London on Increased Supplies; Coffee Also Drops
  • Soybeans May Gain on Speculation U.S. Planting Didn’t Increase
  • U.S. Warns Iran Oil Buyers of Sanctions, Japan and EU Exempt
  • Indian Jewelers to Reopen Stores After Five-Day Shutdown
  • Iron Ore to Drop as China Growth Slows, Biggest Shipper Says
  • Saudi Arabia Can Raise Oil Output 25% If Needed, Naimi Says
  • Single-Cup Coffee Cuts ‘Waste,’ Lowering Bean Demand, Illy Says
  • Copper-Oil Ratio Signals Drop in U.S. Stocks: Chart of the Day
  • Japan Adds Research Ship to Find Rare Earths, Reduce Imports
  • Oil Rebounds From Biggest Drop in 3 Months
  • Glencore Finds Viterra After BHP Billiton Miss: Corporate Canada
  • Gold May Decline Below $1,600 on Fibonacci: Technical Analysis
  • Gold Seen Recapturing Precious-Metal Crown: Chart of the Day 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 


ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – generally weak session in Asian Equities after the Hang Seng snapped our line yesterday; Asian Growth Slowing is a reality right now; the perma-bulls refused to accept it in Q1 of 2011 and are at their own risk doing so now.

 

YEN – easily the ugliest chart in all of Global Macro right now – also something consensus has not moved towards addressing/understanding yet; we’ll be in Boston all day explaining why we think the Yen’s -9.2% drop since FEB is similar to the initial steep decline of the Euro in April/May of 2011. #SovDebtRisk

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


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Pivot Points

“Simple question: are we making sufficient progress to believe that our original strategic hypothesis is correct?”

-Eric Ries

 

I’ve been on the road for the last three days in Canada and Minnesota and had an opportunity to finish reading a book that our engineering team recommended by Eric Ries’, “The Lean Startup.” That quote comes from Chapter 8 which is titled Pivot (Or Persevere). Solid risk management read.

 

Solid is as solid does. Whether you are building your own company, nurturing a family, or serving as a fiduciary of other people’s money, you constantly have to Re-think, Re-work, and Re-build what isn’t working. If you are challenging yourself to evolve, you are going to break things.

 

What do you do when fundamental operating principles like trust break? Do you get out there and earn it back? Or do you sit there and make excuses? I thought UBS Chairman Kaspar Villager nailed it yesterday when he said this about trust:

 

it cannot be tied to a far-dated founding year; trust has to be constantly won anew… reputation is the most important capital for a bank. It takes just a thoughtless action to lose it and the sweat of thousands to rebuilt it.”

 

If that doesn’t resonate with you, try playing on a Championship Team that sits facing one another in a 4-walled dressing room.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

I’m not going to apologize for using sports analogies and/or team building concepts. That’s who I am – and I take great pride in working alongside teammates who think about the name on the front of their jersey before the one on their backs.

 

The leadership concept of Pivot (or Persevere) is a critical one in Global Macro Risk Management inasmuch as it is one in building a business. You really need to be Duration Agnostic when considering whether or not your strategic hypothesis is correct. Markets wait for no one and you’re constantly getting real-time feedback on the validity of your research views.

 

That’s why we’ve separated our process into two really big components:

  1. The Fundamental Research Process (Growth, Inflation, Policy, etc.)
  2. The Quantitative Risk Management Process (Price, Volume, Volatility, etc.)

Quite frequently these 2 components disagree with each-other. Usually that’s because they aren’t both speaking to you on the same duration. That’s why, contrary to popular efficient market hypothesis belief, Timing Matters.

 

As of 6AM EST today, here are our summary Fundamental Research Process updates:

  1. GROWTH: on our intermediate-term TREND duration, both globally and domestically, it’s slowing
  2. INFLATION: on our intermediate-term TREND duration, it’s rising
  3. POLICY: with the exception of very few countries (Iceland raised rates this morning), the Keynesian Bubble remains

From a Quantitative Processing perspective:

  1. PRICE: US and German Equities remain in Bullish Formations whereas China, India, and Hong Kong have broken TRADE lines
  2. VOLUME: Asian Equity volumes are ok, whereas US Equity Volumes continue to hit generational lows
  3. VOLATILITY: everything big beta (Inflation Policy stocks, commodities, etc.) is pseudo normal; SP500 VIX is bombed out

So what do I do with that?

 

Like I did in Q1 of 2008, 2010, and 2011, I sell beta (anything that’s eventually going to fall hostage to Growth Slowing, globally, in the intermediate-term). That doesn’t mean I wasn’t early in any of those prior Q1 Selling Opportunity periods. That doesn’t mean I’m not wrong right now being short the SP500 either (the position is -0.37% against me).

 

It just means I have plenty of room to improve my timing process.

 

Pivot Points (like intermediate-term tops and bottoms), are processes, not points. Every hour of every day we are offered more Fundamental Research points that can help proactively predict the changing slopes of the lines embedded in market expectations.

 

Market expectations, unfortunately, aren’t wrapped up in a pretty baby blue fundamental research box with a white bow. They fully factor in greed, fear, and performance chasing. They can be jubilant; they can be abrupt. And they have a not so funny way of surprising the most amount of people at the most unexpected times.

 

Who would have thunk that the SP500 would be down -10.2% from those topping process days of 2007 (you still need to be up over 12% from here to break-even by the way)? Are they the same people who nailed the SP500 being up +11.7% for 2012 YTD?

 

I don’t know. And I think that if you really want to capture the big intermediate-term Pivot Points of market prices, you really need to embrace the uncertainty of that three word statement.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (WTIC), US Dollar Index, and the SP500 are now $1, $105.70-108.91, $79.33-79.87, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Pivot Points - India

 

Pivot Points - vp 3 21


India Strikes Out Again

Conclusion: We are likely to shun long exposure to Indian rupee-denominated assets for the intermediate-term TREND as bad POLICY looks to erode the country’s future GROWTH/INFLATION dynamics.

 

On FEB 28, 2011 we published a note titled “India: Missing Where It Matters Most”. The summary conclusion of that note was as follows:

 

“Finance Minister Mukherjee’s budget failed to adequately address the #1 issue facing the Indian economy – inflation. As a result, our bearish stance on Indian equities continues unabated.”

 

Fast forward to 1Q12, we’re seeing a similarly-precarious setup develop post the unveiling of India’s FY13 budget (APR ’12 – MAR ’13), specifically in that it: A) fails to achieve much-needed fiscal consolidation; B) like last year’s proposal, relies on aggressive growth assumptions to drive tax revenues; and C) it proposes tax hikes, which have a direct impact on India’s elevated inflation statistics.

 

Regarding point “A”, the budget calls for India’s deficit-to-GDP ratio to narrow to 5.1% in FY13 from a revised estimate of 5.9% in FY12. The -80bps decline seems good at face value, but recall that India’s FY12 budget proposal actually called for a -30bps narrowing of the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 4.6%. Net-net, if all goes according to plan, India will wind up with a deficit that is +50bps higher as a percentage of GDP two years after the initial investor scrutiny of the country’s fiscal position began. Not good. Other metrics worth highlighting include:

  • Total Receipts ex-Debt Issuance:+22.7% YoY in FY13E vs. +2.6% in FY12E
    • In FY12A (through JAN), Total Receipts ex-Debt Issuance is tracking -5.7% relative to initial expectations and -3.3.% YoY
  • Total Tax & Fee Revenue:+22% YoY in FY13E vs. +0.2% in FY12E
    • In FY12A (through JAN), Total Tax & Fee Revenue is tracking -2.9% relative to initial expectations and -2.7% YoY
  • Public Divestment Receipts:+93.6% YoY in FY13E vs. +75.1% in FY12E
    • In FY12A (through JAN), Public Divestment Receipts are tracking -61.3% relative to initial expectations and -32.2% YoY
  • Total Expenditures:+13.1% YoY in FY13E vs. +5% in FY12E
    • In FY12A (through JAN), Total Expenditures are tracking +4.8% relative to initial expectations and +10.1% YoY
  • Expenditures on Subsidies:-12.2% YoY in FY13E vs. -17.2% in FY12E
    • In FY12A (through JAN), Expenditures on Subsidies are tracking +50.7% relative to initial expectations and +24.7% YoY
    • Rising global food and emerging prices specifically pressure this line item, forcing the Finance Ministry to choose between passing through higher costs to producers and end-consumers (inflationary NOW) or allowing the budget deficit to widen (inflationary LATER)
  • Sovereign Debt Issuance:Down just -1.6% YoY in FY13E (from an all-time high of 5.2 trillion rupees in FY12A) vs. +10.5% in FY12E
    • In FY12A (through JAN), Sovereign Debt Issuance is actually tracking +26.4% relative to initial expectations and +39.7% YoY

 

India Strikes Out Again - 1

 

Regarding point “B”, it’s easier to see the risk of the Finance Ministry’s expectations of a fairly dramatic acceleration in Total Receipts ex-Debt Issuance in the context of the GDP target of +7.9% in FY13E. While down from an initial estimate of +9.25% in FY12E (which we identified as laughable then) and at a more achievable level, a +80bps acceleration in India real GDP growth from +7.1% in CY11 seems fairly aggressive in an environment where inflation is poised to reaccelerate and slow growth incrementally from already-depressed levels.

 

India Strikes Out Again - 2

 

India Strikes Out Again - 3

 

Regarding point “C”, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee proposes increasing both service and excise tax rates +200bps to 12% – a hike that he admits will lead to “some inflationary pressures”. Still, he says that he doesn’t expect central bank policy to be influenced by his latest budget. Ironically, members of the RBI have been very outspoken in recent weeks regarding how the [then-pending] federal budget was their #1 factor in determining their intermediate-term monetary policy outlook. Refer to the MAR 5 publication of our “Triangulating Asia” series for more details.

 

On this metric alone, we expect the budget letdown to support the central bank adjusting its bias away from easing back towards neutral and perhaps even towards tightening later in the coming months (our baseline model suggests Indian inflation readings start to accelerate in 2Q). In fact, in its monetary policy statement on the eve of last Friday’s budget release, the RBI stated that “upside risks to inflation have increased from the recent surge in crude oil prices, fiscal slippage, and rupee depreciation”.

 

Specifically regarding the latter point, the tailwind of currency strength relative to global food and energy prices is beginning to exhibit signs of erosion. We expect that to accelerate as capital inflows – which are up dramatically in the YTD – slow and/or reverse over the intermediate term. Foreign debt investors already spot trouble ahead, with holdings of rupee-denominated debt falling -2% from a cyclical peak on FEB 29; 10yr sovereign yields are up +21bps over that duration.

 

India Strikes Out Again - 4

 

India Strikes Out Again - 5

 

As we’ve flagged in recent notes, Indian interest rate markets have been well-ahead of these developments, pricing in incrementally-less monetary easing since the start of the year. Even Indian banks, who were hopeful of broad-based easing as recently as the week of MAR 8 (day of -75bps CRR cut), continue to borrow near-record amounts of cash daily from the central bank.

 

India Strikes Out Again - 6

 

India Strikes Out Again - 7

 

Net-net, from our analytical vantage point, India is at risk of going from a country with a substantial amount of monetary policy leeway to being a country with a meaningful need to tighten policy in a couple quarters or so. Don’t overlook the ruling party’s awful showing in the recent regional elections as a critical factor for monetary policy. In the absence of credible fiscal consolidation, political pressure will likely be on the central bank to shield India’s ~840 million people living on less than $2/day from incremental inflation.

 

An outlook of monetary tightening poses a critical risk to Indian equities, which (per the SENSEX) are up +12% in the YTD and +14.1% since the index bottomed on DEC 20 – largely due to speculation around monetary easing amid a backdrop of accelerating economic growth expectations.

 

As we continue to see across the macro universe, POLICY (fiscal and monetary), which itself is a function of reported GROWTH/INFLATION figures, remains a leading indicator for future GROWTH/INFLATION readings (Soros would call this relationship “reflexive”). Absent a deflationary shock to global food and energy prices, a move back into Quadrant #3 on our GIP chart likely awaits India in 2H12, begging the question: “Does the rally in the SENSEX have legs?” Our answer is unequivocally “no”.

 

India Strikes Out Again - 8

 

All told, when countries consistently print sizeable fiscal deficits and monetize debt amid a global backdrop of excess liquidity and food and energy price gains (as India is doing now), inflation accelerates. Don’t make it more complicated than that. We aren’t, and thus, are likely to shun long exposure to Indian rupee-denominated assets for the intermediate-term TREND. The Trifecta is back on the table.

 

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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