TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 15, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -1.81% downside to 1369 and 0.48% upside to 1401.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1436 (-3249)
- VOLUME: NYSE 853.21 (-5.94%)
- VIX: 15.31 3.45% YTD PERFORMANCE: -34.57%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.01 from 1.42 (-28.87%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
TREASURIES – here’s your hat-trick of ‘not goods’; if you are long anything in Fixed Income, that is (who would be?) – Treasury Bonds are getting blasted – 2yr yield have moved +44% to the upside in 2 weeks. It’s a good thing there is zero asymmetric risk with the Bernank’s zero bound policy.
- TED SPREAD: 39.24
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
- 10-Year: 2.29 from 2.27
- YIELD CURVE: 1.82 from 1.74
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Mar., est. 17.5 (prior 19.53)
- 8:30am: PPI (M/m), Feb., est. 0.5% (prior 0.1%)
- 8:30am: Jobless Claims, week Mar. 10, est. 357k (prior 362k)
- 9am: TIC Flows, Jan., est. $40.0b (prior $87.1b)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of Mar. 11, est. -36.0 (prior -36.7)
- 10am: Philadelphia Fed., Mar., est. 12 from 10.2
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner speaks to Economic Club of New York, Noon
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama travels to an Prince George’s County Community College to talk about energy
- FERC meets to discuss Exelon-Constellation merger, PJM plan for capacity pricing, 10am
- House in recess, Senate in session:
- Senate Appropriations subcommittee hears from Transportation Secretary on agency’s budget, 9am
- Senate Appropriations subcommittee hears from FBI director on agency’s budget, 10am
- Senate Environment subcommittee hears from Nuclear Regulatory Commission chairman on lessons from Fukushima, 10am
- Senate Finance Committee hears from Deere & Co. Chairman on establishing normal trade relations with Russia, 10am
- Supreme Court not in session
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Cisco Systems said to be in advanced talks to acquire NDS Group for $5b: Calcalist
- Yahoo! investor Third Point plans to file preliminary proxy statement “within the week” to seek shareholder votes on proposed slate of four new directors
- LSI Corp. filed complaint with ITC against Funai Electric, MediaTek and Realtek Semiconductor over technology used in audiovisual devices
- Credit-card cos. report monthly net charge-offs, delinquencies
- Schlumberger said to seek buyers for unit that distributes oilfield supplies, business that may fetch as much as $800m
- Google will present changes to search engine over next few months that could affect millions of websites: WSJ
- Morgan Stanley preparing to invest millions in Mexican energy cos. as country opens up industry to private capital
- Foreclosure filings in the U.S. fell 8% in Feb., smallest y/y decrease since Oct. 2010: RealtyTrac
- House Republicans pushing for new round of budget cuts this year, congressional aides say, raising possibility of govt. shutdown shortly before Nov. election
- Tropical cyclone Lua forecast to strengthen on Australia’s northwest coast as Chevron evacuates workers from gas projects, iron ore ships steam out to sea
EARNINGS:
- Quebecor (QBR/B CN) 6 a.m., C$0.91
- Hanwa Solar (HSOL) 6 a.m., $(0.30)
- Aurizon Mines (ARZ CN) 6 a.m., C$0.13
- Gabriel Resources (GBU CN) 7 a.m., $(0.01)
- Scholastic (SCHL) 7 a.m., $(0.70)
- Winnebago (WGO) 7 a.m., $0.04
- Cato (CATO) 7 a.m., $0.34
- AMC Networks (AMCX) 8 a.m., $0.60
- Ross Stores (ROST) 8:30 a.m., $0.85
- Athabasca Oil Sands (ATH CN) Pre-mkt, C$(0.03)
- Crescent Point Energy (CPG CN) 9 a.m., C$0.12
- Dole (DOLE) 4:05 p.m., $(0.12)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Cocoa Rally Fading as African Rains Erase Shortage: Commodities
- Soybeans Near Six-Month High as Brazil Crop May Miss Estimates
- Oil Trades Near One-Week Low on Supply; Goldman Sees $130 Brent
- Copper Swings Between Gains, Losses on Chinese, U.S. Economies
- Gold Rebounds in New York as Low Interest Rates May Spur Demand
- Cocoa Falls to One-Week Low as Rains Boost Crops; Sugar Advances
- Global Food Prices Seen Declining as Demand Growth Slows
- Rubber Shortage Widening to Bolster Prices, Producers Say
- Oil Exports Ease Crude Sting for U.S. Economy: Chart of the Day
- Obama’s Keystone Denial Imperils Refiners’ $25 Billion Oil Bet
- Oil at $126 Boosts BP Ability to Pay More for Gulf Spill: Energy
- Checking German Power May Trim Poland Price Gap: Energy Markets
- Orange-Juice Price Seen Unaffected by End to U.S. Brazil Duties
- Iron Ore Seen Rallying as China Lending Policy May Boost Demand
- Fortescue Raises $2 Billion From Junk Bonds After Doubling Sale
- Impala’s Hand Forced as Zimbabwe Starts Nationalization
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN – acts like le chien de Sarkozy; the IBEX continues to flash a major negative divergence vs Global Equities as of late (Spain -1.4% YTD w/ Germany +20%!); when your stock, currency (Euro), and bond markets are all falling at the same time – not good.
ASIAN MARKETS
ASIA – post the USA meltup in everything Apple and celebrations in Financials to a made-up test, Asia has basically been down for the last 2 days (Equities), with China and India leading the decline. Bulls were begging for India to cut rates last night and they didn’t (inflation), so the Sensex dropped -1.6% on that and snapped TRADE line support of 18,023, again. China’s FDI print was down -0.9% y/y – not good.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team