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DNKN – PRETTY ON THE SURFACE

In the near term, strong same-store sales trends are maintaining sentiment around the stock and for that reason we do not hold a view on the short term TRADE (3 weeks or less) duration.   The TREND and TAIL are less convincing for us and, we believe, investors are going to be more adamant in their demands for disclosure as time goes on.  We see this already happening; when the press release hit this morning, the stock reacted strongly in the premarket before reversing during the earnings call at 8 a.m. 

 

Dunkin' Brands makes more money by opening a new store than it does from an incremental 1% in same-store sales.  Dunkin’ Donuts, its primary source of revenue, is heavily franchised and for that reason we are far more interested in its backlog of prospective new unit openings and franchisee commitments than we are in comps when assessing the viability of the company’s growth plans.  In 4Q11, the company opened 120 new Dunkin’ Donuts stores and announced 25 new franchise commitments.  In the absence of disclosure from management on this, we can only deduce that the backlog is declining. 

 

A friend in the analyst community did ask specifically about this and the response he got was that the backlog is “growing”.  If there is not issue around the topic – and it would certainly be a positive for the stock – why not disclose the details?  We will remain skeptical until we see the numbers.

 

DNKN – PRETTY ON THE SURFACE - DD comparable ss

 

DNKN – PRETTY ON THE SURFACE - dnkn backlog

 

 

EARNINGS CALL NOTES

 

Dunkin' Donuts' U.S. (70%+ of consolidated revenues):

  • 7.4% same store sales in 4Q11
  • Increased marketing – in 2011 the number of weeks on national TV doubled versus 2010
  • Breakfast sandwiches drive higher average ticket - in Q4 the Smoked Sausage Breakfast Sandwich was offered nationally as a limited time offer
  • Driving lunch with the bakery sandwich platform - chicken and tuna salad sandwiches along with the new Texas toast grilled cheese sandwich in December
  • Began selling Dunkin' Donuts K-Cups halfway through 3Q11 – in 4Q11 K-Cups represented a little less than 30% of our total comp increase
  • Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin-Robins as well benefited from the warmer weather in 4Q11
  • Signed a long-term agreement with our Dunkin' Donuts franchisee owned procurement and distributions co-operative - impact will be the greatest of franchisees in new markets where we estimate we will see between 200 and 300 basis-point reductions in food costs
  •  Franchisees opened 120 net new restaurants for a total of 243 net new restaurants in 2011. More than 80% of these restaurants are outside our core markets, and more than 90% of new developments were with existing franchisees
  • Additionally, our franchisees completed 248 remodels during the quarter for a total of 636 in 2011

International

  • Announced that Giorgio Minardi has joined us as President of International for Dunkin' brands
  • The new Baskin-Robbins international store design is in more than 200 stores in the Middle East, Singapore, Russia, Canada, Korea and China.  Management is focused on China
  • Operating income was impacted by an $18.8 million impairment charge related to the company's investment in the South Korea joint venture.  Management said that "the Dunkin' Donuts Brand had a challenging year in Korea and we are working with our joint venture partners to help them to improve the performance of the business."

 

GUIDANCE

  • Dunkin' Donuts U.S. business comp store sales growth to be in the 3.5% to 4.5% range during 2012
  • Baskin-Robbins U.S. business comp store sales growth to be flat to 2%
  • Management is not providing guidance on the international comps in 2012
  • Expect to open between 550 and 650 net new units globally
  • Expect to open 260 to 280 net new Dunkin' Donuts restaurants in the U.S.
  • Close between 60 and 80 Baskin-Robbins locations in the U.S.
  • Franchisees will remodel between 600 and 650 Dunkin Donuts U.S. restaurants
  • Plan to open between 350 and 450 net new units between Baskin-Robbins and Dunkin' Donuts internationally - weighted toward Baskin-Robbins.
  • Revenue growth for 2012 is expect to be in the 6% to 7%
  • “Adjusted” operating income growth in the 10% to 12% range
  • Grow revenue at roughly twice the rate of expenses
  • Guidance of adjusted operating income margin of 45% to 46% and this is all off a 52-week base in 2011.
  • Guidance of adjusted earnings per share between $1.19 and $1.23 for fiscal year 2012.
  • 2012 share count is expected to be $122 million.
  • Generate between $100 million and $110 million in free cash flow

 

DNKN provides very detailed guidance on a number of business metrics just not the one that drives the long term growth of the company – the backlog of franchise store openings.  Again, the company opened 120 net new Dunkin’ Donuts stores in 4Q11 and announced only 25 new franchisee commitments.

 

In the short run we would expect to see the potential for a future dividend and/or a share repurchase announcement to serve as a catalyst for some activity on the long side. On the call, management indicated that it is does not plan to deploy excess FCF to pay down debt.  Having said that, until further notice we are contending that the back log is declining and the long-term growth story – as yet – does not warrant a premium multiple.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


MAR 4Q11 PREVIEW

MAR has been on a tremendous run since the spin which gives us a little pause heading into what promises to be a confusing quarter.  Long-term, not much not to like or as the optimists would say, much to like.

 


We’ve been on the MAR bandwagon since before the spin.  While we’re still positive on the story and near-term RevPAR trends, the stock has been on a tear and MAR’s quarter (announcing next Thursday) is likely to be confusing.  MAR spun off VAC on November 21, yet many sell-side models do not reflect the spin.  Other factors to focus on are Q1 RevPAR trends – we think they are good – and trends in DC which have been disappointing lately.

 

We have Marriott reporting $363MM of Adjusted EBITDA and $0.49 of EPS.  We treat the timeshare business as fully consolidated up to November 21 and then give Marriott credit for their pro-rata fees on timeshare for the balance of 4Q.

 

 

Detail:

  • World Wide RevPAR growth of 7.3% (non-comparable), with roughly 75% of the growth coming from ADR
  • System-wide room increase of 2.4% YoY
    • 3.3% growth in franchised rooms
    • 1.4% managed rooms
  • $355M of owned, leased, corporate housing and other revenue and $52MM of gross margin
    • Our revenue estimate is 3% below the street but our margin are $3MM higher
    • $141MM of owned & leased revenue
      • Leased revenue makes up the bulk of this number and is up 17% YoY, offset by a 9% decline in owned revenue
    • $179MM of F&B and other revenue, down 3% YoY
    • 4.25% increase in CostPAR
    • $30MM of branding fees and $4MM on termination fees
  • $429MM of fee income, which is close to the upper end of management guidance and a little above consensus
    • Base management fees of $187MM
      • We estimate $17MM of base fees related to timeshare, which MAR is no longer entitled to post spin-off. 
    • Incentive fees of $83MM
    • Franchise fees of $159MM, which include $7MM of fees related to VAC post spin
  • We’re only modeling timeshare through November 21.  We expect most analysts are modeling a full quarter for simplicity purposes.  We assume timeshare sales and service revenue of $243MM and $45MM on a net basis. 
    • For the full quarter:
      • Sales and services revenue estimate is $370MM
      • $69MM net timeshare sales and service income
      • Segment results of $47MM
  • Other stuff:
    • SG&A: $229MM (excludes some timeshare related costs post spin)
    • Net interest expense: $41MM (excludes timeshare interest post spin)
    • Tax rate: 34%
    • Diluted share count: 348MM

RL: Opacity Gone

 

RL remains one of our favorites. Numbers are still too low. But let’s acknowledge some risks that loom on the horizon.

 

 

RL pulled another RL. EPS of $1.78 came in well above $1.66 consensus expectations and our own $1.70E. Solid revenue growth and tighter cost control offset continued margin pressure and a higher tax rate that impacted EPS by ~$0.07. There are plenty of puts and takes on the quarter, the biggest of which are…

 

     1)      Pro: RL’s increasing control over its own distribution through owned retail in Asia, and just about the best track record for trading dot.com vs. retail stores out of any brand we know of – even powerhouses like Nike.

     2)      Con: FY13 will be the first year in 5+ that we’ll be looking at a real organic growth rate for RL.  Yes, we’ll see expansion of retail stores, dot.com and meaningful expansion in Asia. But these are all existing businesses.  Previously, acquired (and consolidated) licenses goosed the top and bottom line. With the opacity of the model largely we’ll get a better sense as to the real organic numbers.  That’s not bad, because we still get to near 20% organic EPS growth. But with tourist growth slowing in its largest markets, we’ve got to keep our eye on the ball.

 

All in, we remain well above the Street next quarter at $1.20 vs. $0.95 (pre call) and over $10 in EPS 2-years out (F14). With a favorable setup in Q4 due to timing shifts last year and strength at retail and internationally (Asia in particular), RL continues to be one of our favorite names in retail.

 

Here are a few things worth considering in the quarter:

     1)      Gross margin pressure remains persistent. We cant ignore this one, especially with the sales/inventory spread running negative for six quarters running.

     2)      Inventories were up +28%, and RL blamed 12% of this growth from non-comp items (South Korea, Home, new stores and e-com). The shift of South Korea and home from licensing has been a strong incremental sales driver (5% of total sales this quarter) so we’ll front them that. If we assume inventory levels stay at the current 2yr run rate, against an easier comp next quarter the sales/inventory spread should turn positive for the first time in the last six quarters. While that gives us a bit more comfort on Gross Margins, the numbers don’t lie, and they remain high.

     3)      Management noted that tourist traffic is off meaningfully in its two top markets – US and Europe. In addition, Fx was a non-event in the quarter, but will start to become a headwind in Q4 after providing a 2% tailwind YTD.

     4)      In the upcoming year, they lap Korea, meaning that this is the first year in a very long 9 years that will show the real organic growth rate of the company. Korea has accounted for ~3% of incremental growth in F12 and Home another 1-2%. We have sales up 13% next year after +23% this year driven by +7% from existing stores, +2% e-com, and 4-5% in wholesale driven more by product expansion than new door growth.

 

Bigger picture, keep in mind that this is the year where Roger Farah’s contract comes up for renewal. His RL stock alone is worth over $7.5mm, and we can’t think of a retailer that wouldn’t love to get their hooks in him given his credibility built at RL. It’d be shocking to us for him to ‘pull a Ron Johnson’ and go elsewhere. But if we were to craft a doomsday scenario for RL, this would definitely be part of it.

 

As for revenues in Q3, similar to last quarter strong retail performance accounted for 11% of RL’s consolidated 16.5% top-line growth. Existing comps contributed +10.5%, Korea (+2%), and e-commerce (+1.5%) while wholesale contributed +4% offsetting the modest decline in licensing due to the loss of Korea. With revenues coming in largely in-line with our expectations and wholesale a bit stronger on the margin, we have taken our revenue estimates up 2pts to +22% in Q4 offset by the shift in SG&A expenses of ~$16mm into Q4 and slightly higher tax rate accounting for $0.11 and $0.04 in EPS respectively and a net reduction of $0.13 to our Q4 number.

 

In looking out over the next few years, the increasing shift towards retail will create a natural tailwind (see table below) at the same time the company is increasingly focusing on product expansion (handbags, footwear) that will drive increased productivity. In fact, the first question Roger was asked in the Q&A was about RL’s partnership with JCP. In short, the response was something to the effect of the company has so many exciting opportunities that they are looking to focus their energy elsewhere. We agree and remain bullish on the immediate-term TRADE and longer-term TAIL here.

 

Here’s a sense as to how sales mix versus estimated Gross Margin by segment is impacting consolidated results.

 

RL: Opacity Gone - RL mix shift

 

RL: Opacity Gone - RL SIGMA

 

RL: Opacity Gone - RL expectations vs reality

 

 

Casey Flavin

Director

 

Here are our notes from the call:

 

Revs: +16.6% (better than low-teen expectations)

  • Contribution from South Korea and home textiles collectively added incremental +5% to sales
  • Fx neglibible

 

Wholesale:

  • Double digit rev growth in US and Europe
  • Continued momentum in men's and children's apparel globally
  • Expansion of newer merch categories: handbags and footwear, Lauren products in Eur
  • Strength in dept store channel globally offset softness in select specialty store mkts
  • EBIT impacted by COGS inflation and impact of new categories D&S and Home

 

Retail:

  • Double-digit comps in all major geographic regions = 12% comp in Q3
  • .com +31%; RL stores +7%; Factory +9%; Club Monaco +17%;
  • Unseasonable weather impacted US and Eur in Oct and Nov
  • Consumers shopped later in season - impact of highly promotional season
  • Traffic most challenging in US and Eur RL stores - experienced 'a stark deceleration' in tourist sales vs 1H
  • Asia growth remains strong
  • Club Monaco trend right has the momentum - conversion and units/trans up
  • Top .com categories: Men's, children's and Denim & Supply among top performers categories in Q3
  • Opened 7 stores; closed 3 stores = 378 at qtr end
  • Strong operating profitability on tough comp yy driven by strong comp and int'l market profitability

 

Licensing:

  • Revs down -1% (SK and Home)
  • EBIT up due to lower net costs re S. Korea and home transitions

 

GM: -150bps due to

  • Peak cost inflation for fall/holiday season
  • Mitigated by selective price increases, greater retail mix, and e-commerce

 

SG&A: + 15.5%

  • Shift in timing from certain corporate expenses in the quarter to Q4
  • Increase due to incremental rent (retail growth), depreciation, and labor
  • Also incremental cost associated with transition of South Korean lic and home textiles ops

 

BS:

  • Inventory +28%
    • o 12% from non-comp items (home, South Korea, new stores, int'l e-com)
    • o 9% merchandise to support comp products, geographies , and distribution
    • o 7% COGS inflation and FX impacts
  • CapEx $68mm - new stores, S-in-S installs, and infrastructure investments
  • Repo'd $395mm in stock YTD - have $577mm remaining under SRA
  • $1.3Bn in cash; $1Bn net cash

 

 

Outlook:

 

Q4:

  • Revs: ~20%
    • Mid teen rev growth at wholesale
    • Mid 20%s rev growth at retail
    • Reduction in HK and China doors and anniversary of S Korea
    • FX expected to have a net negative impact on consolidated revs
  • OM: equal to or slightly below prior yr (was -50bps) - originally -100-150bps at the beginning of the year
    • Assumed cont. inflation pressure
    • Large wholesale shipment qtr for Spring
    • Clearance at retail
    • Incremental expense incurred with closing stores in China
  • Tax 34% (This adds an incremental $0.02 to earnings vs. the 35% we're modeling)

 

 

F13:

  • Sales will anniversary S Korea and Home
  • Fewer Chinese doors
  • Drivers will continue to be geographic expansion, new stores, and expanded accessories

 

General:

  • continued focus on our key growth initiatives, which include expanding our international presence, extending our direct to customer reach, and new merchandising innovations have resulted in a more profitable mix of business compared to the prior year.
  • International revs up 40% YTD
  • More than mid-teen expansion in US
  • Expanding Lauren apparel and launch of handbags and footwear in Club Monaco have been well received
  • Keeping investment behind e-commerce launches
  • Despite meaningful headwinds in Eur 'poised' for substantial growth

 

  • Double-digit comp growth in Japan
    • Better than expected sales on more profitable platform
  • Implementing similar disciplines in Korea
    • Still top destination for Chinese shoppers
  • Closing 95 points of distribution in China by end of F12 = 60% of network they had in place at beginning of the year
    • Bold move but critical
    • Taking accelerated action to build strongest foundation possible in most important global lux market
    • Will take a deliberate approach to building out store base to find most attractive locations
    • In aggregate, int'l ops gained 400bps of share in overall rev mix YTD

 

  • DD comps and strong mo at wholesale suggest taking share
  • Clear that e-com becoming increasingly more important channel for customers - RL remains committed to spending here
  • Launched in several European countries (France and Germany earlier this year)
  • Club Monaco will launch e-com this spring in US and Canada
    • o Also creating style guides and developing a magazine to showcase collections
  • In Q3, mobile phones and tablets accounted for 20% of traffic to RL.com and nearly 10% of sales = ~$0.03 in EPS

 

  • Direct operations in Asia and adding additional key product categories will fuel profitable growth for next 5-10yrs

 

  • Men's and Children's apparel particularly strong
  • Women's also solid
    • o Blue label strong especially Int'lly
  • Club Monaco resonating with women - looking to grow the platform over the next few years
  • Handbag and footwear
    • o This spring among most 'well received' ever
  • Expanding international Lauren and Polo leather goods
    • o Due to profits and productivity seeing in existing markets
  • Denim and Supply launch in Q2
    • o Rolled out hundreds of shop-in-shops globally
    • o Balanced sales mix between men's and women's - younger customer
    • o See opportunity to open more freestanding stores given success thus far

 

Cost inflation:

  • Beyond just cotton; also cashmere, wool, silk, leather, and exotic skins
  • Made strategic price adjustments in the fall - not full offset = maintains value to customers
  • Expect to see margin relief with Fall shipments
  • Believe they've gained meaningful market share gains as a result

 

 

Q&A:

 

Partnership with JCP:

  • At end of 5yr commitment for American Living and have decided to move away from business after Spring/Summer shipments
  • I think the mid tier channel had a more challenging third quarter
  • Have met with RJ and team several times
  • "we have a lot on our plates that is very exciting and challenging and we want to make sure our efforts and energies are aligned with the opportunities"
  • Have left the door open for further dialog
  • Will be spending time controlling brand best way they know how - i.e. owned retail
  • De minimus impact on P&L
  • Domestic wholesale efforts focused on existing customers - Chaps at KSS where they are #1 brand

 

China Store Network - Flagships:

  • 95 door closures more than 60 started year with
  • Following new store openings in HK and Shanghai and strong demand for lux goods, decided to get more aggressive about closing B and C locations
  • Negotiating in Beijing, Shanghai, and HK for flagships
  • Also looking to build flagships in Japan and Paris as well as China

 

Cost Inflation/ Regional Profitability:

  • Maintained quality, didn't sacrifice RM trim or fit
  • Picked up mkt share
  • Expect margins to rise in '12
  • Mix helping - DTC + Int'l markets higher margin
  • Also product category expansion in accessories and other higher margin

 

SG&A Exp Shift to Q4:

  • In corporate, advertising, and some e-commerce investment, some headcount that had initially planned in Q3
  • Also restructuring and impairment charges in Q4 re China door closures (taken out of adj EPS)
  • Magnitude $15-$18mm range

 

European landscape:

  • Sense of uncertainty among local customers if /how euro crisis will be resolved
  • Wholesale bookings at this point mostly men's
    • Early reads are up, getting market share with most retailers operating cautiously (inventory and capital)
    • Investing in brands they feel most strongly about
  • Second piece is that small specialty stores getting squeezed
    • RL will be looking to build up monobrand RL-owned stores as a result
    • England, France and Germany
    • Will also leverage e-com launches

 

Growing Concepts Denim & Supply and Club Monaco:

  • ~200 doors at Macy's; 100+ int'l
  • Club Monaco sold through owned retail domestically and soon to be .com in Asia
  • Have licensed partners in Asia that are growing footprint
  • Strong in Europe through S-in-S and dept stores looking into free standing stores

 

New Int'l Head - Succession Planning?:

  • Just joined
  • His background is in running luxury businesses
  • LVMH watches
  • International customers
  • Every one of those high priorities for RL
  • Also have John Hawkes in Europe (joined in Fall) and Mark Daily in Asia (joined this time last year)

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.49%

Tight-Lipped Draghi Goes Further Non-Standard

--When questioned on the ECB’s position of taking a loss on its Greek holdings, swapping its Greek holdings with the EFSF, or contributing in some way to “sharing” losses on its Greek holdings, Mario Draghi was tight-lipped, responding that the actions were either a violation (hinting that the ECB’s position against it wouldn’t change) or that he’d reserve a response until after tonight’s Eurogroup meeting (suggesting that a change of position couldn’t entirely be ruled out).  In the last hours, the Greek government has concluded talks with Troika on the issue that “remained open for further elaboration”, according to a press release. Already Germany’s Finance Minister Schaeuble says spending cuts appear to not yet fulfill bailout conditions. Please see our note yesterday titled “Greek PSI Is NOT Getting Done”, for the challenges we see ahead for participating parties to come to “agreement”.  Below we include the key language of the Bank’s interest rate decision today and further below we provide select Q&A from Mario Draghi’s (MD) press conference.

 

UNCH:

 

The ECB’s governing council decided to keep key interest rates unchanged today. The language on its main outlook on the economy was revised to “tentative signs of stabilization in economic activity at a low level” versus “substantial downside risks” in the previous report, however the ECB was quick to cover that “this outlook is subject to downside risks”. On inflation, the Bank holds roughly the same view, namely that inflation is “likely to stay above 2% for several months to come, before declining to below 2%.” 

 

Finally, on the pace of monetary expansion, Draghi noted that annual growth rate of M3 decreased to 1.6% in December 2011, after 2.0% in November. He highlighted that loans to the non-financial corporate sector were “particularly pronounced” and that “there are indications that bank lending conditions tightened further, affecting loan supply in several euro area countries in late 2011. It is not yet possible to draw firm conclusions from these developments, particularly given that the impact of the first three-year LTRO on bank funding is still unfolding and may not have been fully reflected in the most recent bank lending survey.”

 

For more specifics, see this ECB press release:

http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2012/html/is120209.en.html

 

 

ECB Adding Risk to its Balance Sheet:

 

Draghi issued additional non-standard monetary policy measures, including new eligibility criteria for additional credit claims, which can only mean that the ECB will take more risk on its balance sheet.  The specifics were left to the National Central Banks (NCBs) to publish on. Of the NCBs participating (Central Bank of Ireland, Banco de España, Banque de France, Banca d’Italia, Central Bank of Cyprus, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, and Banco de Portugal) that had updated their websites on the measures, here are the changes:

 

Austria’s NCB: “To enable Austrian banks to optimize their liquidity management, the OeNB has decided to lower the minimum credit score for credit claims to a one-year default probability of 1% on the part of the debtor. The related risk of the OeNB will be overcompensated by strongly raised haircuts.”

 

Spain’s NCB: “The Banco de España will accept performing corporate and Public Sector Entity credit claims, other than mortgages, that are denominated in euro or in major foreign currencies and whose estimated credit risk, as assessed by the Banco de España using reliable sources, has a probability of default equal to or lower than 1%, although initially it will accept only collateral with a probability of default equal to or lower than 0.4%. Credit claims not governed by and structured in accordance with Spanish law might be accepted, at a later stage, subject to individual legal assessment. “

 

For the ECB’s press release, see:

http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2012/html/pr120209_2.en.html

 


Top 3 Q&A Responses:

 

-What’s the ECB’s position on Greece?   MD: For some reason, we focus on financing things. But reforms are the most important aspect, and then on the rest. On PSI we’re not a negotiating party. Everyone’s talking about what the ECB could do, however the ECB hasn’t said anything, and I won’t here.

 

-Why can’t you announce the value of the ECB’s Greek holdings?  Will the ECB take haircuts?   MD: I want to wait for the outcome of the Eurogroup meeting. I will not answer if the ECB will take haircuts on its bonds.

 

-You’ve warned against tricks that go around the spirit of the European treaty. Are these tricks legal options for Greece?   MD: Talks about the ECB sharing the losses in Greece is ungrounded and unfounded. The idea that the ECB gives money to a program (country), which is monetary financing, is a violation. But, we will wait to see what comes of tonight’s Eurogroup meeting.  

 

 

Additional Q&A:

 

-In your introductory statement you no longer say that downside risk is “substantial”, does this mean less easing going forward?  MD: we came from a very weak Q4, but see a stream of surveys and hard data of low stabilization. But uncertainty is high, related to global economy, sovereign tensions, credit markets, and global growth.

 

-How big will demand for 2nd LTRO be?   MD: specialists say it should be substantial and around the previous one, but frankly we have no more information to share. The LTRO is a business decision, to lend to the real economy, as we saw tight lending across corporates and households.

 

-Will there be future LTROs?   MD: if the interbank market functions, there’s no need for additional LTROs, which is a temporary, non-standard measure. 

 

-Is the fiscal compact pact a durable quantum leap?  MD: yes, a major event. It testifies to the willingness of member states to partially release sovereignty in the budget area, including the readiness to accept budget changes in primary legislation. It’s a sign that the Euro is a strong reality, and that all participating members can stand on their own, without being subsidized by others.

 

-Will the ECB hold all its bonds to maturity?   MD: No need to change our positioning.

 

-There’s a focus on Target 2. Could claims of the Bundesbank against other countries be a problem for Germany’s credit rating?    MD: Target 2 balances are normal and inherent in a monetary union. Usually you don’t observe high imbalances, because the interbank market functions. But stress will arise when interbank markets don’t function, however there’s no more risk for creditors because there’s a central platform [to backstop] the system, which is the ECB.

 

-The ECB seems less pessimistic about Eurozone growth than the IMF?   MD: this is true.

 

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst 


INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED

Claims Improvement Begets Further Claims Improvement ....


The headline initial claims number fell 9k last week to 358k (falling 15k after the upward revision to the prior week). Rolling claims fell by 11k WoW to 366k this week. On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, reported claims fell 24k WoW to 398k.

 

Claims remain on autopilot, for now. While some of the strength here is the byproduct of a seasonal distortion that will roll from tailwind to headwind around the end of February, the underlying trends are still very positive. Our hypothesis has been that falling claims become self-reinforcing once they break through the 375-400k level because that is the rate below which the unemployment rate can decline sustainably. This, in turn, fosters greater confidence among hiring managers and consumers, which begets further reductions in claims. The treadmill has become virtuous. This remains a key theme supporting our bullish stance on the large-cap financials. We expect this trend to continue over the intermediate term. To be clear, we're not suggesting that claims must fall week-in and week-out going forward. That would be ridiculous. Rather, we're suggesting that the general trend lower in the rolling claims series is likely to persist going forward.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED  - chart1

 

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED  - chart2

 

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED  - chart3

 

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED  - chart4

 

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED  - chart5

 

 

2-10 Spread


The 2-10 spread widened 12 bps versus last week to 172 bps as of yesterday.  The ten-year bond yield increased 16 bps to 199 bps.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED  - chart6

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED  - chart7

 

 

Financial Subsector Performance


The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED  - chart8

 

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 

Robert Belsky

 

 

 


INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED

Claims Improvement Begets Further Claims Improvement ....

The headline initial claims number fell 9k last week to 358k (falling 15k after the upward revision to the prior week). Rolling claims fell by 11k WoW to 366k this week. On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, reported claims fell 24k WoW to 398k.

 

Claims remain on autopilot, for now. While some of the strength here is the byproduct of a seasonal distortion that will roll from tailwind to headwind around the end of February, the underlying trends are still very positive. Our hypothesis has been that falling claims become self-reinforcing once they break through the 375-400k level because that is the rate below which the unemployment rate can decline sustainably. This, in turn, fosters greater confidence among hiring managers and consumers, which begets further reductions in claims. The treadmill has become virtuous. This remains a key theme supporting our bullish stance on the large-cap financials. We expect this trend to continue over the intermediate term. To be clear, we're not suggesting that claims must fall week-in and week-out going forward. That would be ridiculous. Rather, we're suggesting that the general trend lower in the rolling claims series is likely to persist going forward.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED - Rolling 2

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED - Raw

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED - NSA chart

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED - S P and claims

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED - Fed   Claims

 

2-10 Spread

The 2-10 spread widened 12 bps versus last week to 172 bps as of yesterday.  The ten-year bond yield increased 16 bps to 199 bps.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED - 2 10

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED - 2 10 QoQ

 

Financial Subsector Performance

The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 

 

INITIAL CLAIMS: AUTOPILOT ENGAGED - Subsector performance

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 

Robert Belsky

 

 

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