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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 27, 2011

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or -2.71% downside to 1231 and 0.37% upside to 1270. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - hrmsl

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - hrmsp

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpgm1

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE:  1151 (-389) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 477.81 (-38.31%)
  • VIX:  20.73 -2.03% YTD PERFORMANCE: +16.79%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.84 from 3.06 (39.95%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 58.03
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.03 from 1.97   
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.75 from 1.69

 

GLOBAL MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • U.S. holiday sales will rise 3.8% vs 5.2% advance last year: National Retail Federation
  • U.S. SEC sided with the bankrupt Lehman brokerage in $3b dispute with Barclays over assets
  • German govt is revising forecast for 1% economic growth in 2012 and will present a lower figure in mid-January, Focus magazine reports
  • Republican presidential candidates step up campaigns as Iowa caucuses near (Jan. 3)
  • Online gambling could be poised to flourish – WSJ
  • Strong Christmas weekend performance insufficient to rescue 2011 box-office performance for movies – WSJ
  • Apple iTV sets to be launched in Q2 or Q3 - DigiTimes

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • 9:00am: S&P/Case-Shiller Y/y, Oct., est. -3.22% (prior - 3.59%)
  • 10:00am: Consumer Confidence, Dec., est. 58. (prior 56)
  • 10:00am: Richmond Fed Index, Dec., est. 5 (prior 0)
  • 10:30am, Dallas Fed Manf., Dec., est. 4.5 (prior 3.2)
  • 11am: Export inspections, Dec. 22: corn, soybeans, wheat
  • 11:30am, U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo. bills, $27b 6-mo. bills

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Hedge-Fund Managers Miss Biggest Rally in 10 Weeks: Commodities
  • Mildewed Feed Caused Tainted Mengniu Milk, Regulator Says
  • Oil Trades Near Highest in Two Weeks on U.S. Recovery Forecasts
  • Gold Declines to One-Week Low as Europe Woes Damp Growth Outlook
  • Mechel Faces Record Yields After Net Debt Surges: Russia Credit
  • Copper Drops First Day in Five in New York on China Slowdown
  • India’s Gold Imports Seen Dropping 50% in December on Rupee
  • Corn May Extend Rally From Two-Month Low: Technical Analysis
  • India May Curb Potash, Phosphate Fertilizer Prices, Jena Says
  • Most Stocks Gain as Dollar Holds Losses on U.S. Economic Outlook
  • Russian Gold Output Rises 4.5% to 193.8 Tons in January-November
  • China 2012 Rare-Earth Export Quota Almost Same as This Year
  • Aluminum Shipments by Japan Drop as Overseas Demand Weakens
  • Rubber Falls to One-Week Low on Concern Chinese Demand May Drop
  • Palm Oil Drops From One-Month High as Investors Lock in Gains
  • Noble Group - Unlocking value in Gloucester Coal (Buy, S$1.195 - TP S$
  • Paulson’s Gold Fund Said to Fall 10.5% in 2011 as Metal Rises
  • China Gold Trading Limited to Shanghai Exchanges, PBOC Says
  • Gold Climbs in London as Dollar Decline Boosts Investor Demand

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - dcommv

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - dcurrv

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

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ASIAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpam1

 

 

MIDDLE EAST (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Iran Regime Profiting From Currency Decline, U.S. Treasury Says
  • Oil Traders Flee as Crude Price Swings From $100: Energy Markets
  • Iraq War Lives on as Second-Costliest U.S. Conflict Fuels Debt
  • Dubai’s Sukuk Trails 2010 Gains on Debt, Europe: Islamic Finance
  • Qatar Plan to List Debt May Boost Local Bond Sales: Arab Credit
  • Saudi Arabia Forecasts $3.2 Billion Surplus in 2012 Budget
  • Saudis Need $74 Oil Price to Balance 2012 Budget, Jadwa Says
  • Abu Dhabi’s Aldar Board to Discuss Selling Assets, Projects
  • Renaissance Plans to Raise $130 Million Via Private Placement
  • Aldar’s May 2014 Bond Yield Drops to Almost Five-Month Low
  • Libyan Output Exceeds 1 Million Barrels a Day: Persian Gulf Oil
  • U.S. Considering Yemen’s Saleh Request to Visit for Medical Aid
  • Aldar Declines as Board Plans to Meet to Discuss Asset Sale
  • Saudi Oil Break-Even Price Rise to $71.5 Next Year, NCB Says
  • Savola to Sell Stake in Land Plots for $168 Million
  • Syria Producing 260,000 Barrels a Day as Oil Sanctions Bite
  • Savola Surges Most Since March After Land Sale, Egypt Stake Buys
  • Qatar Fertiliser to Supply Mitsubishi Ammonia, Al Raya Says
  • Iran Government Saves $15 Billion on Subsidy Cuts, State TV Says

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - me

The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director