A POLITICAL TSUNAMI STRIKES SEOUL
Republic of Korea (ROK) President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached on 14 December by the National Assembly and faces possible insurrection charges after he suddenly declared martial law earlier this month – a declaration that the country’s parliament almost immediately overturned. Yoon claimed this was a legal decision to "prevent the collapse" of democracy and counter the opposition party’s "parliamentary dictatorship." In a speech to the nation, the embattled president apologized defended his shocking decision, and insisted he would “fight until the end.” The country now faces a very public political fight over the next six months while the Constitutional Court decides whether to remove Yoon from office.
Yoon's short-lived martial law declaration plunged South Korea into political chaos and resulted in massive demonstrations. After it was reversed, Yoon was banned from leaving the country and stripped of many of his presidential powers. The National Assembly initiated impeachment proceedings and an investigation for treason. He was also barred from involvement in state affairs, and the special warfare commander said his men would not follow future martial law orders.
Yoon claimed he ordered martial law to save the country from internal existential threats and a North Korean plot. He called the opposition-controlled National Assembly a “den of criminals” who were “attempting to paralyze” the government. However, Yoon’s approval ratings among South Korean voters have dwindled significantly in recent months. It was clear he had grown frustrated with the impasse in the National Assembly and their efforts to investigate his wife for corruption. He may have believed that conservatives in his country – who frequently accuse the left of collaborating with North Korea – would support his decision to seize control, but Yoon’s decision was a massive political misread.
In the aftermath, the country’s defense minister, Kim Yong-hyun, resigned and was arrested on insurrection charges. He subsequently attempted to hang himself in his jail cell. The country’s parliament, led by the opposition Democratic Party, suspended the nation’s two highest-ranking police officials for allegedly mobilizing police to deny lawmakers access to the National Assembly building. Justice Minister Park Sung-Jae was also arrested, and it is almost certain others will be indicted.
What happens next?
Since Yoon’s declaration, 70% of South Korean voters have demanded he leave office, but he has refused to resign. Following the successful impeachment vote, Yoon was suspended from office awaiting a final legal review by ROK’s Constitutional Court, which will occur over the next six months. If the court agrees with the impeachment vote, Yoon will be formally removed from office and an election must be held within 60 days. It is likely he will also face criminal charges.
In the interim, ROK Prime Minister Han Duck Soo assumes the duties of president. But the prime minister is appointed by the president with the approval of the National Assembly in South Korea and has little political power. Han immediately emphasized the need “to stabilize the government" after the impeachment vote that saw at least 12 members of Yoon’s party vote for his removal. Han later chaired a National Security Council meeting and stressed that the country must maintain a “watertight readiness posture.”
The political crisis has raised fears that North Korea could stage a provocation at a moment when several senior defense and military officials have resigned or been arrested. It also raises questions about whether South Korea can effectively deter its nuclear-armed neighbor as Pyongyang expands its arsenal and deepens ties with Russia.
Following the impeachment vote, Yoon immediately declared, “I will never give up.” He will likely continue to try to rally South Korean conservatives, as he prepares to plead his case before the court. His critics argue that Yoon’s defiant speeches are an effort to incite the far right and encourage those involved to destroy evidence. Consequently, even though it is unlikely he will survive politically, the next six to nine months of South Korean politics will largely focus on his actions, the impeachment legal process, and national elections.
The effect on domestic politics
If Yoon is removed from office, the Democratic Party will almost certainly win the next election. Prior to the impeachment vote, Yoon’s popularity was roughly 20%, and it has plummeted to less than 10%. He won the presidential election in 2022 with the narrowest margin in ROK political history, and his pledge to abolish the Ministry of Gender and Equality was widely opposed by female voters. He has faced further criticism for his poor handling of food inflation, a lagging economy, and a 2022 Halloween crowd crush that killed more than 150 people.
But as a former anti-corruption crusader, his biggest political problem has been the appearance of corruption and impropriety as his presidency has lurched from scandal to scandal. Yoon has faced accusations of abusing presidential powers and vetoing more bills than any other president in the nation’s history. That includes a bill that would have established a special investigation into his wife, Kim Keon Hee, for stock manipulation. Kim caused further controversy when she was secretly filmed accepting a $2,000 designer handbag as a gift. His mother-in-law, Choi Eun-soon, was sentenced to one year in prison for forging financial documents in a real estate deal. That explains why a recent call for his impeachment was not necessarily new, as an earlier petition was so popular that it caused the parliamentary website hosting it to crash.
Yoon’s martial law decree harkened back to an era of South Korean authoritarian leaders that the nation lived under for decades until the 1980s. This could dramatically affect the nation’s view of its military, which has improved dramatically in recent years. The accusations levied against military leaders by those opposed to Yoon and the appearance of paratroopers to stop members of the National Assembly from voting have clearly harmed the popular image of the nation’s armed forces.
But this would not be the first ROK president to be impeached – or to face a tragic political end. If the court sustains the impeachment vote, he will join a long list of South Korean presidents since 1948 who have had a difficult time during or after their presidencies. Nine others have been impeached, overthrown, jailed, or killed. Most recently, the country went through the 2017 impeachment of President Park Geun-hye. Her presidency came to an end due to a political scandal that involved influence peddling by her aide, Choi Soon-sil.
How will it affect the U.S.?
Yoon’s impending departure also poses problems for Washington. South Korea’s Democratic Party, which controls the National Assembly, is less likely to pursue a hardline position with respect to North Korea if they win the presidency and a larger legislative majority. It is also possible that they will oppose providing ongoing military aid to Ukraine or be willing to cooperate closely with the U.S. in its efforts to contain China.
Yoon had forged closer ties with the U.S. and was hosted at the White House by President Biden in April 2023 for a state visit. That meeting resulted in agreements on nuclear consultations between the two countries and closer defense cooperation. President Biden also met with Yoon and then Japanese Prime Minister Kishida in August 2023 at Camp David. This trilateral summit led to a budding partnership between the three nations to meet the threats posed by both China and North Korea.
But these efforts to enhance American alliances in the Asia Pacific region are now in jeopardy. Yoon could soon be ousted, and Kishida was replaced by Shigeru Ishiba as Japan’s prime minister in October. His party now leads a minority government. Whether the efforts by the Biden Administration to strengthen ties with these allies can survive this political turmoil is an open question. In the immediate aftermath of the martial law order, both the current Japanese Prime Minister and Chief of the Japanese Defense Forces postponed upcoming visits to South Korea. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin also canceled an impending trip to South Korea.
Obviously, the ongoing political uncertainty could have significant economic implications as well. The South Korean economy is experiencing a slowdown, with growth moderating to 1.4% in 2023 due to weakening global demand and a downturn in electronics sales. Still, the South Korean economy is considered relatively stable with low unemployment, and some economists have projected a 2025 rebound with a projected growth rate of around 2.5%.
The country’s central bank chief told the Financial Times that the martial law crisis had delayed critical economic reforms but added that Donald Trump’s tariff threats were of greater concern. The South Korean economy is very dependent on exports to the U.S. (over 6% of its GDP) and could be very seriously affected by increased tariffs. The government has vowed to prop up markets with “unlimited” liquidity as the Won dropped dramatically in value during the crisis.
But South Korea could face other financial challenges. The Biden White House signed an agreement with the ROK in October that requires Seoul to pay Washington $1.1 billion annually to house American troops on the peninsula. This basing agreement has been supported by presidents of both parties for decades, but President-elect Trump frequently criticized South Korea for not paying more during his first term. He recently referred to the country as “a money machine” and argued that it will pay $10 billion annually when he is president.
Conclusions
This political crisis will undoubtedly put South Korea in a difficult position on the global stage for months to come. The interim government will remain weak, and Yoon’s opponents in the Democratic Party are likely to win handily if elections are held in the next few months. They are expected to pursue moderate policies towards North Korea as well as China and reduce the ROK’s dependency on the United States. Clearly, relations between South Korea and the incoming Trump Administration were already going to be difficult, and this will not make the transition to new leadership easier for Seoul or Washington.
This might further encourage the isolationist policies proposed by Trump during the 2024 presidential campaign. But as the challenges posed by China and North Korea increase, the U.S. will need South Korea to be a stable and reliable ally. An extended period of political chaos on the Korean peninsula could make it difficult for U.S. allies to close ranks when needed while a new American Administration is pressuring South Korea to pay more for U.S. support. And this is only one of several major foreign policy challenges awaiting Donald Trump on 20 January.
The most difficult challenge for South Korea may be that the impeachment process will dredge up the hardships of the past and concerns about the nation’s political future. South Korea has a sad history of authoritarian leaders, which it has distanced itself from over the past four decades. But rising income inequality and political corruption have resulted in widespread discontent. The review of Yoon’s impeachment by the Constitutional Court will result in a complicated period of political infighting, societal instability, and challenging international negotiations. This could prove a truly existential moment for a young democracy that the U.S. relies upon to face adversaries in the Pacific. While the outcome of this crisis could have massive economic and geopolitical effects on South Korea, it also has serious implications for the United States.
