THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 30, 2011

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 64 points or -3.83% downside to 1116 and 1.60% upside to 1179.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpgm1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - hrmsp

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1295 (+3374) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1120.96 (+6.86%)
  • VIX:  38.84 -5.45% YTD PERFORMANCE: +118.82%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.20 from 2.45 (-10.19%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 36.70
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
  • 10-Year: 1.99 from 2.03     
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.72 from 1.76

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30 a.m.: USDA Quarterly
  • 8:30 a.m.: Personal income, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Personal spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
  • 9:45 a.m.: Chicago Purchasing, est. 55.0, prior 56.5
  • 9:55 a.m.: UMich Confidence, Sept. F, est. 57.8, prior 57.8
  • 10 a.m.: NAPM-Milwaukee, est. 57.2, est. 58.3
  • 11 a.m.: Fed’s Bullard to speak in San Diego
  • 1 p.m.: Baker Hughes rig count

 WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Italy softens blow of falling government bond prices for insurers - FT
  • Alderney Gambling Control Commission pulls Full Tilt Poker's gambling license - WSJ
  • Strategic bidders look like current favorites in EMI auction - Billboard
  • FAA to propose higher minimum-experience standard for co-pilots - WSJ
  • Workers at Chrysler's Global Engine Manufacturing Alliance plant approve joining with UAW contract - WSJ
  • Global investors say Operation Twist will fail to reduce unemployment as the U.S. economy slows: Bloomberg poll
  • September quarter ends: Watch for portfolio shuffling as fund managers adjust holdings
  • Strategic bidders look like current favorites in EMI auction - Billboard
  • Invesco, Square Mile Capital, Canyon combine to acquire $880M loan portfolio from BAC

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION                                                                    

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - dcommv

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Copper Rout Outpaces Analysts Focused on Shortages: Commodities
  • Gold Gains as Rout Spurs Purchases, Central Banks Boost Reserves
  • Korea Shipyards’ LNG Skill Beats China Bulk Focus: Freight
  • Diesel Rally on Shell Fire Set to End on Formosa: Energy Markets
  • Oil Gains in New York; Set for Biggest Quarterly Drop Since 2008
  • Copper Gains, Paring Biggest Quarterly Decline Since 2008
  • Commodities Pare Quarterly Drop on German Vote, U.S. Outlook
  • Zinc Output May Rise in Japan to Meet Post-Quake Demand
  • Rare Earths Fall as Toyota Develops Alternatives: Commodities
  • Thailand, Bolivia, Tajikistan Boost Gold Reserves in August
  • SGX, LSE in Joint Bid for London Metal Exchange, Reuters Says
  • Oil Heads for Biggest Quarterly Decline in New York Since 2008
  • Fifty-Year Drop in Asian Monsoons Linked to Fossil-Fuel Use
  • Farm Subsidies May Face Supercommittee Cuts Amid Record Profits
  • Gold May Gain as Price-Rout Spurs Physical Demand, Survey Shows
  • Sugar May Decline on Large Crops in Europe, Asia, Survey Shows
  • Crude Oil Rises on U.S. Economy, German Passage of Bailout Bill
  • Chaoda Chairman, Fidelity Manager Accused of Insider Trading

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - dcurrv

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • Eurozone August unemployment +10.0% vs consensus +10.0% and prior +10.0%
  • Eurozone Sep CPI +3.0% y/y vs consensus +2.5% and prior +2.5%
  • Germany August retail sales -2.9% MoM; +2.2% y/y vs consensus (0.6%) and prior revised to (1.8%) from (1.6%)
  • France August consumer spending +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior (1.60%)
  • France July producer prices +0.5% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior (0.3%)

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpem1

ASIAN MARKETS

  • Japan August core CPI +0.2% y/y vs cons +0.1%. Jobless rate 4.3% vs cons 4.7%.
  • Preliminary industrial output +0.8% m/m vs cons +1.5%.
  • September manufacturing PMI 49.3 vs 51.9 seq.
  • Tokyo September core CPI (0.1%) y/y, matching expectations.
  • HSBC China September PMI 49.9 vs preliminary 49.4, month-ago 49.9.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpam1

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - me

Howard Penney

Managing Director