Donald Trump enjoyed a decisive victory on election day, and with it comes an opportunity to change the direction of U.S. foreign policy and national security strategy. The challenges the president-elect faces are enormous, and the change he effects will have major implications for the ongoing war in the Middle East, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, as well as other issues like civil-military relations, trade and immigration.
So, what challenges will Trump face, how might he approach them, and how will it affect US policy and role in the world? Let’s consider those key issues that the president-elect will oversee beginning on January 20th – inauguration day.
Climate change
This issue does not lead the list for many people considering the number of conflicts worldwide. Still, climate change is perhaps the greatest example of global cooperation in the realm of foreign policy. But Trump has long described climate change as a “hoax,” has promised to remove the United States from the Paris Accords once again, and increase American production of fossil fuels – confirming his campaign promise to “drill, baby, drill.”
He may seek to terminate significant parts of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provided over $390 billion for electric vehicles, batteries, and other clean energy technologies. However, it remains to be seen how much he undermines these investments, as associated manufacturing investments tripled in the two years since the passage of the IRA. This resulted in half a trillion dollars of investment across American manufacturing, energy, and retail sectors, according to MIT and Rhodium. Furthermore, a substantial percentage of these funds ended up in Republican states and Congressional districts.
While some in Trump’s camp – such as Elon Musk – may not wish to undo the manufacturing boom created by the IRA, the president-elect may find political motivations to undermine Biden’s legacy anyway. If so, Trump might well offer China the opportunity to leap ahead with green technologies, take the moral high ground, and present itself as a responsible superpower, particularly to nations in the Global South.
Ukraine and Russia
Since the election, Trump has reportedly spoken to both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky multiple times. The Washington Post reported Trump told Putin not to escalate the war in Ukraine, and has been informed that Russia is amassing 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops at the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, Zelensky is said to have come away from his discussion with Trump – and Musk – with a sense of optimism, though he has little choice to feel otherwise.
During the campaign, Trump pledged to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Most believe this implies that Ukraine will be forced to accept Russia’s demands. Experts have suggested that this would include – at a minimum – Ukraine giving up sovereignty over Crimea and the Donbas and accepting at least a 20-year moratorium on joining NATO. Only then would Putin agree to suspend hostilities.
If history is any guide, this will not end the conflict. Russia will begin to rearm, and continue its efforts to undermine the Ukrainian and other European governments by supporting pro-Moscow elements, conducting hybrid warfare against the West, and restarting hostilities in response to some claimed Ukrainian “provocation” in the future.
Still, some Russian experts believe the Russians are more wary of Trump in a second term. He is viewed as volatile and unpredictable, and they fear that his political comeback will make him more confident in his dealings with Putin.
Furthermore, Putin’s position may not be as strong domestically as many believe. There is growing evidence that the Russian economy is starting to feel the economic strains of the war as demonstrated by high inflation and interest rates. Despite the massive increases in Russian defense spending, Moscow is increasingly dependent on China, Iran, and even North Korea.
If Trump tries to improve relations with Moscow one indicator may be whether his administration seeks to begin negotiations on renewing the START Treaty that limits American and Russian strategic nuclear weapons. It is currently scheduled to expire on February 4, 2026. If it is not renegotiated, a danger exists that Russia and the United States might become involved in a strategic nuclear weapons arms race that would be both extremely expensive and destabilizing.
Gaza and the Middle East
Trump is expected to give full and unending support to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his effort to defeat Hamas and reshape the region to limit the influence of Iran in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and other countries. Netanyahu called Trump’s election ”the greatest political comeback in history” and in a phone call Netanyahu and Trump agreed to “work together for Israel’s security.” Some experts fear this relationship might allow the Israelis to maneuver the U.S. into a conflict with Iran leading to an expansion in Israeli settlements in Palestinian territory. But one of Trump’s major achievements in his first term was the so-called Abraham Accords that resulted in diplomatic relations between Israel and moderate Arab states (UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco). He will seek to build upon that effort and pursue a grand bargain with the Saudis – normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia in return for expanded American security guarantees.
Whether that is possible absent some gesture towards the Palestinians remains to be seen. Still, Trump is unlikely to feel any domestic pressure to appease those in the U.S. calling for a ceasefire in Lebanon or Gaza – unlike the Democrats.
China
Trump appears ready to pursue a trade war with China, threatening an increase in tariffs to over 60%. That threat has already caused foreign companies to pull money and investment from China in recent months, with a drop of $8.1 billion in the third quarter, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
Many of Trump’s advisers as well as Vice President-elect JD Vance have taken a tough view of China. They have urged the U.S. to abandon Ukraine to the Europeans while stiffening American deterrence strategy to Beijing. This might work well in a theoretical academic lecture, but it is less certain whether China or American allies in the Pacific will find that a credible approach. It will be interesting to see how Trump maintains the networks of alliances the Biden administration created with the Republic of Korea, Japan, Philippines, and the Australia-UK-U.S. pact known as AUKUS.
In the past, the president-elect has also shown little interest in defending Taiwan or other Pacific allies. Trump has already indicated that Taiwan must do more to defend itself. Consequently, Taipei has shown interest in increasing its defense spending in the US, and Trump has also demanded that South Korea increase its payments to the U.S. for American forces on its territory by a factor of ten.
NATO
Obviously, an end to American aid to Ukraine will have a serious secondary effect on NATO unity. While Biden saw American allies as force multipliers, Trump has always shown disdain for the alliance – viewing it as a burden on the U.S.
Many advisers from Trump’s first term have warned that he will withdraw the U.S. from the alliance. While the Senate did pass a law that a president cannot do so without an assenting Senate vote (sponsored by Senator Marco Rubio), Trump could choose to neuter the relationship by simply withdrawing all American troops from Europe and sending the vice president to NATO Summits.
The initial reaction in Europe to his election appears to be a surprise. Some countries appeared to have begun preparing for a return to the Trump era, but preparations are woefully inadequate. European leaders have struggled to acknowledge that an American shift from its European commitments has been coming for a long time.
The WWII and Cold War generations are passing away, and it has been increasingly difficult to answer a basic question – why should 350 million Americans defend 450 million Europeans, from 150 million Russians? Upcoming elections in European countries could also have an outsized effect on the alliance’s future.
In 2020, many Europeans asked whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump was the aberration in terms of America’s direction in the future. This election appears to have answered that question in a dramatic fashion.
The defense budget
The Congress was unable to agree to a defense budget for FY 2025 prior to the October 3rd recess. Whether it will be able to do so during its upcoming “lame duck” session is unclear, and Congress may vote for a continuing resolution. The “lame duck” Congress must also address the debt ceiling, which is due to expire on January 2, 2025 – and now stands at nearly $37 trillion.
It appears the FY2025 defense budget will be roughly $895 billion, and there will be pressure to increase it dramatically. How the Trump Administration accomplishes this while reducing taxes and not further increasing the national debt is an open question.
One indicator of how the budget process may proceed is that Senator Roger Wicker, who will be chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC),has called for an immediate $55 billion increase in defense spending.
Biden’s last 60 days
It is important to keep in mind that Joe Biden still has roughly 60 days remaining in his presidency, and there are many things he could seek to accomplish during his final days.
It is expected that the outgoing president will accelerate aid to Ukraine, though that will be constrained simply by logistical challenges. Biden has already taken decision that will have major implications for Ukraine. Despite fears of having “American boots on the ground,” the Biden Administration agreed to allow U.S. military contractors to deploy to Ukraine to accelerate maintenance and repair of complex Western-provided weapon systems -- a major reversal of White House policy. He has also agreed to allow Ukraine American ATACMs missiles at maximum range in response to the arrival of thousands of North Korean troops to fight for Russia. This would allow Kyiv to strike targets deeper into Russian territory.
Conclusions
These are some of the policy changes a second Trump Administration may pursue, but it is critical to acknowledge that this White House will be difficult to predict. The president-elect has a brash, unpredictable, and erratic style. While the Biden Administration viewed the world as a competition between autocracy vs. democracy, Trump is much more transactional and seeks a more isolationist approach globally.
We will see what Trump accomplishes with the political capital he has earned. He and his team appear very confident and have exhibited a bit of swagger in the aftermath of a resounding victory and historic political comeback. But so-called mandates are often fleeting, and the world is a far more dangerous place than it was on January 20, 2021.
