Below is our "Chart of the Day" and a brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Macro analyst Ryan Ricci.
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Oh and by the way, our most recent inflation estimate is for inflation to accelerate further next month. But if you are thinking, “okay Powell can’t cut after a further acceleration in inflation.” Your immediate thought is very logical, but the Fed isn’t logical. Listen to him talk at minute 21:20 till 24:17 here. In his words: a couple up ticks into year-end is normal before a period of low inflation. LOL. So yes, he very well could see inflation uptick into December and convince himself that everything is okay. But the market will likely take out the rate cuts from March and May. |
