CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation's Re-Acceleration Timeline

Personally, I don’t care much about qualitative narratives. I really care about quantified ROC numbers.

So on a MONTHLY #Quad2 in OCT vs. the QUARTERLY #Quad3 for Q4, here’s what I try to explain:

A) Don’t forget that during the #Quad2 in OCT, we’re going to get the deepest #Quad4 US INFLATION report of The Cycle
B) IF/WHEN the Fed “sees” dovish data like that, the Bond Market typically tries to “price in” more cowbell (Rate Cuts)
C) It won’t be until December WHEN the Fed can start to “see” #Quad2 or #Quad3 INFLATION re-accelerating

We’ll go through all of that with nice charts and pictures (including cartoons!) during tomorrow’s Q4 Macro Themes presentation.