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INITIAL CLAIMS RISE AHEAD OF OBAMA'S SPEECH

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Initial Claims Rise 5k

Initial jobless claims rose 5k to 414k last week (+2k after the revision to last week's data).  With this week's data point, there is now a clear upward trend in place in rolling claims.  The Labor Department noted that there was little effect on claims from the hurricane.  However, because of the Labor Day holiday, data from several states including California was estimated rather than actual.  This means that revisions next week are likely to be larger than normal, although the revision could go either direction.  

 

INITIAL CLAIMS RISE AHEAD OF OBAMA'S SPEECH - rolling

 

INITIAL CLAIMS RISE AHEAD OF OBAMA'S SPEECH - raaw

 

INITIAL CLAIMS RISE AHEAD OF OBAMA'S SPEECH - sp

 

10-year Declines Put Enormous Pressure on Margins

We presented our Black Book yesterday that analyzes the impact of the current rate environment on NIM.  To summarize, the impact is profound, wiping out substantial swaths of interest income at all the moneycenter banks.  (Contact us if you haven't seen this presentation.)  This week's price action in the 10-yr remained negative for the banks.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS RISE AHEAD OF OBAMA'S SPEECH - 2 10 spread

 

INITIAL CLAIMS RISE AHEAD OF OBAMA'S SPEECH - spreads QoQ

 

Subsector Performance Chart

 

The chart below shows the performance of financial stocks by subsector.

 

INITIAL CLAIMS RISE AHEAD OF OBAMA'S SPEECH - perf

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 

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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 8, 2011

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 59 points or -4.22% downside to 1148 and 0.70% upside to 1207.

 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 2420 (-2155)
  • VOLUME: NYSE 954.50 (-15.15%)
  • VIX:  33.38 -9.78% YTD PERFORMANCE: +88.1%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.99 from 1.85

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 32.15
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.0153
  • 10-Year: 2.05 from 1.98
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.84 from 1.77

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30 a.m.: Trade balance, est. (-51.0b), prior (-53.1b)
  • 8:30 a.m.: Jobless claims, est. 405k, prior 409k
  • 9 a.m.: Corelogic June foreclosures
  • 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg consumer comfort, prior (-49.1)
  • 10:30 a.m.: EIA Natural Gas storage change
  • 11 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 1:30 p.m.: Fed’s Bernanke speaks to economics club in Minn.
  • 3 p.m.: Consumer credit, est. $6b, prior (-$15.5b)

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled to speak in Minnesota today on the economic outlook, 1:30 p.m. ET
  • Monsanto and 10 other cos. may win challenge against French measures banning use of strain of genetically modified corn if govt. can’t show fulfilled correct procedures, EU’s highest court said earlier
  • Congress’s deficit-reduction supercommittee holds first meeting today in effort to find $1.5t in cuts
  • JNJ/Bayer: FDA advisory committee on Xarelto (rivaroxaban)
  • Yahoo board may hire advisers within two weeks, with Allen & Co., JPMorgan and UBS among those likely to be chosen: WSJ
  • HTC surged to highest in 3 weeks in Taipei after filing infringement claims against Apple yesterday, using patents bought from Google last week
  • Labor Dept. said to be investigating pay practices of some home building cos. including Pulte, Lennar, D.R. Horton, KB Home: WSJ
  • Ranbaxy Laboratories headed for biggest close in 3 months after parent Daiichi Sankyo said aims to start selling generic version of Pfizer’s cholesterol pill Lipitor on schedule
  • ACE agreed to buy Penn Millers for $20.50 cash per share
  • NFL season begins tonight
  • No IPOs expected to price today

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Gold Gains in New York as Two-Day Slump From Record Lures Buyers
  • Monsanto May Win Appeal of French GM Maize Ban, EU Court Says
  • Cotton Climbs Most in Two Months as China May Build Stockpiles
  • Coffee Falls as Slowing Economies May Dent Demand; Cocoa Drops
  • Copper Declines 0.5% to $9,044 a Ton on London Metal Exchange
  • Corn May Rise on Speculation U.S. Harvest Will Miss Estimates
  • Tropical Storm Nate Forecast to Strengthen in Mexican Waters
  • Corn Imports by China to Surge, Tightening Global Supply
  • South Korea to List Exchange-Traded Fund for Physical Copper
  • Hayward to Spark Oil Fight in Iraqi ‘Last Great Frontier’
  • Toyota Boosts Japan Ship Lines Amid Slump: Freight Markets
  • Sweet Oil Filling Libya Gap to Stay Near Record: Energy Markets

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

 



THE M3: SJM COTAI; GAMING CONCESSIONS; CHINESE TRAVEL

The Macau Metro Monitor, September 8, 2011

 

 

SJM UNVEIL ITS COTAI PROJECT IN A RESEARCH REPORT Macau Daily News

According to a report by BoC International, SJM's Cotai project would need 15,000 workers, which is a barrier to the project's schedule.  SJM expects to obtain government approval by the end of 2011.  The project is expected to be completed within 36 months from receiving approval.

 

NO TIMETABLE YET FOR RENEWAL OF GAMING CONCESSIONS: GOVT Macau Daily Times

The Macau government doesn’t have a calendar yet to start the gaming concession renewal process.  Casino concessions in Macau will begin to expire in 2020.  These worries are likely to make it harder for operators to borrow to pay for their projects in Cotai.  

 

MORE TRAVELING FOR CHINESE IN UPCOMING HOLIDAYS Xinhua News

It is projected that some 300MM Chinese will be traveling during the upcoming Mid‐ Autumn Festival and National Day holidays this year, representing a 20% increase YoY.  And some 2.2MM are expected to travel to overseas destinations such as the Maldives, Phuket, Bali, Hong Kong, and South Korea, spending approximately US$2.1BN on international trips.


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Half The World

“Half the world hates, what half the world does every day…Half the world lies, half the world learns…Half the world talks, with half the mind on what they say.”

 – Neal Peart

 

To suggest that these lyrics by Canada’s son Neal Peart apply to Wall Street would be all too appropriate.

 

There’s the buy side half, and there’s the sell side half.

 

But even within those groups, there are the big guys – with a big sense of entitlement – such as the Morgan Stanleys, Citigroups and BofAs of the world who use the Fed as their piggybank at our expense.  No, Hedgeye did not accept any TARP money and we won’t in 2012, either.

 

Similarly on the buy side there are the PMs and Analysts who have exclusive access to management teams to get inside info during ‘double secret one-on-ones’ at broker conferences.

 

And then there are the others who have to fight harder and rely on a tried and true investment process that will consistently generate positive returns across all durations without what we call “orange jumpsuit risk”.  We’re proud to call many of them our clients.

 

But as for the big guys, especially on the sell-side-half, it’s pretty amazing that despite all the resources, access and clout, there’s still such absence of any rigorous quantitative modeling of earnings and cash flow.

 

This translates into what we’ll call ‘entitlement to grow’. It’s what the sell side seems to bestow ad nausea to virtually every company in (and out) of the S&P.  

 

Sit next to any analyst – even someone considered halfway decent – while they’re building out a model. When plugging in a growth rate for a certain product, business line, or region, and ask them to build a bearish revenue case.  The chances are that they’ll take revenue growth closer to zero.

 

Then what about gross margins? Maybe they’ll take them down a few basis points . . . let’s say 50bps.

 

As for SG&A, here’s the real kicker.  Companies in retail give SG&A guidance – for the most part – as a percent of sales. That means, of course, that the sell side models it that way as well. But the guided SG&A ratios are simply the product of the company’s sales results from a largely predetermined SG&A plan. That sell-side “bear” will end up with margin deleveraging of around 50bps.

 

In reality (which is where we live) what happens if sales targets come in light – or heaven forbid – are actually down year on year?

 

SG&A is planned predominantly on a fixed basis. Roughly 60-70% of SG&A costs are headcount-related for the average retailer or brand.  Then there’s another 10-15% that’s marketing and R&D. The remainder is largely corporate (i.e. fixed). Are these expenses pliable? Yes, in part. Some can be flat-out cut, even if they shouldn’t be. But those that are certainly take more time than the cadence of revenue recognition.

 

So what’s the REAL bear-case?

  • Unemployment is still in the dog house, and there’s no near-term tax stimulus;
  • Consumer spending – which is 72% of our economy – is down 1-2%;
  • Zero percent 4Q GDP growth;
  • ‘Essential Spending’ which includes housing, food, energy, etc… +2-4%; and
  • Discretionary spending -5-7%.

If this is the scenario, can the Wal-Marts of the world do, ok?  Yes they can, which is why WMT is one of our top long ideas.  Nike, which has a structural advantage and is gaining share in a global duopoly in a GDP+ category?  Definitely.  Liz Claiborne, which has more asymmetric factors to outperform in a bad economy than almost anyone in retail?  Yes.

 

How about JC Penney, which is…well…it’s JC Penney? Absolutely not. The other key losers are those that are posting unsustainably high growth rates today, like Hanesbrands and UnderArmour (even though the latter is a great longer-term story).

 

Whether a company wins or loses is one thing, but being fully represented in expectations is another. If JC Penney’s sales square footage is -1%, comps are down 3-4%, gross margins are down 100bps+, and SG&A is growing by 3%, does anyone want to guess what that does to EPS growth? Do the math, it gets you to something like -125% -- or some other meaningless number when EBIT is wiped out entirely.

 

Is that dude whose shoulder you’re watching over running any of these numbers? My sense is that he’s probably not. Actually, my opinion is meaningless when the flat-out fact is that the consensus is looking for EBIT to grow for JC Penney in the high single digits over the next year.

 

So Mr. Ackman, do you believe +8% or -125%. Not exactly a delta I want to be looking at in this tape.

 

There’s this little thing called leverage. It’s a wonderful thing on the upside (circa 2003). But unfortunately, today it’s looking like 2008 all over again.

 

If you’re not part of the right half, get there… fast…

 

Keith’s immediate-term ranges for Gold, Oil, and the SP500 are now $1, $87.51-90.73, and 1148-1207, respectively.

 

Brian P. McGough
Managing Director

 

Half The World - Chart of the Day

 

Half The World - Virtual Portfolio


Additional Color on FW Sales

The big boys are crushing it, while everyone else takes it on the chin.

 

1)      As noted earlier Sales were flattish, as a 4.4% decline in units was entirely offset by better price points.

2)      Nike is crushing it. Share up nearly 500bps to 44.1%...simply amazing. Converse is the one exception.

3)      Some sequential deceleration from Reebok, but still 25%+ top line ain’t half bad… Also, Adidas US is more than picking up the slack.

4)      Will Skeechers ever hit bottom? The answer is yes, but not yet.

5)      UnderArmour up slightly, but for intents and purposes, it’s still a big zero.

6)      Check out Private Label footwear – trendline remains -40% vs. last yr.

 

Additional Color on FW Sales - FW brand data 9 7 11

 

Additional Color on FW Sales - FW Market Share 9 7 11

 

 


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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