THE HBM: CHUX, DNKN, PFCB, GMCR

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MENU

 

Notable macro data points, news items, and price action pertaining to the restaurant space.

 

MACRO


The ICSC sales index posted its 4th straight decline, falling 1% last week. Year-over-year growth slowed to 3%, the slowest pace in eight weeks.  It appears that the stock market volatility is impacting consumer behavior.

 

It’s unlikely that the consumers will lead us out of the recent economic malaise and continued unfavorable moves in equity, gasoline or house prices are significant threats to future spending.

 

Corn rose to a 10-week high in and soybeans gained as worsening crop conditions in the U.S. may be smaller than estimated.  Corn traded at $7.412, the highest for the most-active contract since June 9.

 

SUB-SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

On the better than expected Knapp track data the Full Service sector turned in a strong performance yesterday (it should be noted that the move was not confirmed by volume studies).    The Food processors held in despite the performance of SAFM down 3.5% (as the daily volume study spiked 167%) and the upside move in corn. 

 

THE HBM: CHUX, DNKN, PFCB, GMCR - hfbrd

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

GMCR under fire for its aggressive accounting announced the appointment of Stephen L. Gibbs as its Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer effective immediately.

 

Yesterday, I highlighted DNKN’s egregious valuation…  don’t see much upside from here.

 

FULL SERVICE

 

CHUX announced that Wilson L. Craft, O’Charley’s Concept President, has resigned to pursue other opportunities.  Maybe because the opportunities at O’Charley’s are limited!!!

 

Put this in the aggressive promotion category and let’s hope this is limited to just Hawaii - For a limited time, P.F. Chang's Hawaii is offering a Buy One, Get One Free coupon! Download one and bring it in….

 

THE HBM: CHUX, DNKN, PFCB, GMCR - pgcbbogo

 

Pei Wei Asian Diner is offering new menu pricing under the combo banner of “Diner Select,” as parent company P.F. Chang’s China Bistro Inc. works to stem sliding sales.  The new “Diner Select” option lets customers choose from five popular Pei Wei meals, starting at $6.25 for a reduced-portion entrée and a choice of a spring roll, soup or Asian slaw as sides. Pricier proteins, such as beef or shrimp, cost more, as do substitutions such as fried rice for white or brown rice - NRN

 

THE HBM: CHUX, DNKN, PFCB, GMCR - qsr

THE HBM: CHUX, DNKN, PFCB, GMCR - fsr

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

            

 

Rory Green

Analyst


SECTOR SPOTLIGHT | Live Q&A with Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Join us for this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more


Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more