Below is our "Chart of the Day" and a brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by our Macro analyst Drago Malesevic.
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What is much less uncertain is that domestic growth is poised to slow in year-over-year terms in the second half of 2024. For instance, to achieve even a single basis point acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter, based on our 2Q24 nowcast of 3.0%, would require a 98th percentile or near 3 sigma move in real GDP based on an observation period spanning back to 1Q85 – this translates to a sequential growth rate (QoQ SAAR) in the neighborhood of ~5%. |
