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DNKN: TRADE UPDATE

DNKN was covered this morning in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio.

 

This morning, Keith covered DNKN in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio as the stock was oversold on an immediate-term “TRADE” basis.  From a fundamental perspective, we remains negative on the company’s prospects of justifying the still-egregiously high multiple the stock price is implying.  For a comprehensive overview of our analysis on DNKN, please email us or for a copy of the DNKN Black Book and other research notes on the company.

 

DNKN: TRADE UPDATE  - dunkin levels

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor

As usual, we’re keeping it brief. Email us at if you’d like to dialogue further on anything you see below.

 

PRICES

Across Latin American equity markets, Venezuela continues to outperform, closing up +7.1% wk/wk and up +52.4% YTD (vs. regional median of -14.2%). Interestingly, Venezuela’s Stock Market Index remains the only country index in the world that remains bullish from a TRADE and TREND perspective in our quantitative models. 

 

Slowing Growth and Deflating the Inflation are weighing on interest rate expectations across Latin American currency and fixed income markets, with the Brazilian real and Mexican peso declining -2.2% and -2.6% wk/wk, respectively; Brazil’s 2yr sovereign debt yields fell -43bps wk/wk alongside a -16bps decline in Mexican 2yr sovereign debt yields. CDS shot up broadly across the region, but not to levels we’d consider noteworthy from a change in credit quality perspective.

 

Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor - 1

 

Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor - 2

 

Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor - 3

 

Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor - 4

 

Weekly Latin America Risk Monitor - 5

 

KEY CALLOUTS

 

Brazil

-Despite record-low unemployment for the month, retail sales growth slowed in June to +9.5% YoY. Though we remain the bears on Brazilian equities, we were out last week with a detailed report on what we’d like to see to turn constructive – email us for a copy of the presentation.

-Though Brazilian home price growth slowed in July to +2.1% MoM, the absolute level of growth continues be a thorn in the central bank’s side. At only ~1% of GDP, however, it will be tough to meaningfully slow the structural demand for mortgages and homeownership in Brazil over the long-term TAIL.

-According to the latest National Industrial Confederation (CNI) poll, President Rousseff’s approval rating has taken a -600bps hit (to 67%) since March, largely due to the sticky Stagflation continuing to grip the Brazilian economy. In fact, the percentage of respondents disapproving of the government’s efforts to control inflation rose +1,400bps to 56% since the survey last took place.

-Despite growing discontent with the central bank’s relative inaction on addressing what continues to be higher-highs in Brazil’s reported inflation readings, president Alexandre Tombini reaffirmed the government’s commitment to reaching the mid-point of their official CPI target of +4.5% (vs. +6.9% YoY currently) by the end of next year. From an intermediate-term perspective, we think Brazilian inflation peaks in August on a YoY basis. From a longer-term perspective, we do not see them achieving the stated objective absent a material slowdown in Brazilian economic growth.

 

Mexico

-CPI accelerated in July on both a YoY and MoM basis to +3.6% YoY and +0.48%, respectively. The Mexican bond market continues to believe in the ability of central bank president Ron Carstens to avoid a serious bout with inflation despite record-low interest rates and Indefinitely Dovish policy, as expectations for an interest rate hike continue to be extended well into next year (Sept. ’12 based on TIIE futures).  We remain the bears on the Mexican peso (MXN).

-Banco de Mexico confirmed our view of the Mexican economy by lowering its forecast for 2011 and 2012 YoY GDP growth to 3.8-4.8% (vs. 4-5% prior) and 3.5-4.5% (vs. 3.8-4.8% prior), respectively.  The bank maintained its 2011 and 2012 YoY CPI forecasts of 4-5% apiece. Expectations of slower growth and flat-to-declining inflation expectations continue to support the bull market in Mexican peso bonds.

 

Chile

-Central bank president Jose De Gregorio confirmed our view that Chilean economic growth is slowing by officially stating that Chilean GDP growth is likely to approach trend-line levels by years-end (~4%).

-Inflation slowed in July to +2.9% YoY, which gives Banco Central de Chile the cover to remain on hold with their benchmark interest rate (currently at 5.25%).

 

Colombia

-Accountability you can believe in: finance minister Juan Carlos Echeverry offered to resign if the country’s unemployment rate didn’t fall to single digits by year-end (currently at 10.9%). Though we don’t have a call here on the slope of Colombian unemployment, we continue to admire the courage and leadership out of their policy makers. Both monetary policy and fiscal policy remain key leading indicators for growth and inflation in our model.

 

Peru

-Peru’s central bank, led by the recently reappointed Julio Velarde, kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.25% amid slowing domestic and global economic growth.

 

Darius Dale

Analyst


THE HBM: THI, DNKN, BWLD

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MENU

 

Notable news items, macro data points, and price action pertaining to the restaurant space.

 

MACRO

 

Consumer

 

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 54.9 versus consensus of 62 for August.  This is the lowest level for the index since the 1980’s.

 

THE HBM: THI, DNKN, BWLD - UMICH CONF

 

 

Recent gyrations in the stock market are impacting consumer preferences, as the chart below shows.

 

THE HBM: THI, DNKN, BWLD - ground beef steak

 

 

Restaurant Employment

 

Restaurant employment has hit its highest levels since the third quarter of 2007, a surprising trend that suggests operators face a difficult task in attracting and retaining employees.

 

 

Subsectors


To end a very volatile week, the full service sector underperformed.  The underperformance can be traced to the severe decline in consumer confidence and RRGB suggesting that consumer my be reacting to the decline in the market over the past three weeks.


 

THE HBM: THI, DNKN, BWLD - subsector fbr

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

  • THI raised to “Buy” at Edward Jones.
  • DNKN, according to Bloomberg News, is seeking to replicate its cult-like following in the Northeast in new regions in the U.S., particularly out west.  Hedgeye has been clear in our belief that this will be extremely difficult and costly given the existing brands in the western U.S.

CASUAL DINING

  • BWLD raised to “Buy” at Sterne, Agee, & Leach.

 

THE HBM: THI, DNKN, BWLD - STOCKS 815

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


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THE M3:S'PORE FOREIGNER BACKLASH, S'PORE SLOTS CLUBS LOSE; MACAU TOURS; SJM PROBE; AND MORE...

The Macau Metro Monitor, August 8, 2011

 

 

SINGAPORE TO EXPAND BENEFITS, TIGHTEN FOREIGN CURBS AFTER POLL BACKLASH Bloomberg

After a backlash over the cost of living led to record opposition gains in the May elections, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will expand public housing and medical benefits while tightening curbs on foreign workers.  Changes will include higher salary thresholds and better educational qualification for some foreign workers.  More than a third of Singapore’s 5.1 million population is made up of foreigners and permanent residents. According to the Ministry of Manpower, companies added about 116,000 jobs last year, of which 59,700 went to foreigners.

 

HOTELS EXPECT FULL BOOKINGS FOR FORMULA ONE RACE WEEKEND The Business Times

Hoteliers are expecting strong room demand during 2011 Formula One Grand Prix (Sept 23-25) with many trackside hotels projecting full occupancy. 'So far, we have seen a positive response from the public and there has been a healthy take-up of the room packages. We are expecting the hotel to be running at high occupancy,' said an MBS spokesperson. 'We are expecting a strong mix of both corporate and leisure guests as there are several large events at MBS that lead up to the F1 weekend.'

 

SLOT CLUBS LOSING THE JINGLE OF COINS TO IRs The Business Times

To date, the Singapore Indian Association, Singapore Mariners' Club and SAF Yacht Club (Changi) have closed their jackpot operations as the high costs of upgrading and buying new machines amid declining jackpot revenues didn't justify reinvestment for some of them.  After the opening of the 2 IRs, Singapore's slot clubs saw revenues fall by 35-40% according to an independent gaming consultant.   Many slot players have been trading in their social club privileges for $2,000 annual memberships at the casinos because they offer better returns to players and hefty progressive and mystery jackpot wins of at least $1 million, plus attractive incentives including new cars.  

 

In contrast to casinos which are taxed at 15% of net gaming revenues, slot clubs are taxed 9.5% of gross turnover of jackpot machines - which is roughly equivalent to a 54% tax rate on net win.  In addition to the higher tax burden, Clubs are also barred from offering promotions that encourage higher turnover.

 

TOURS SOAR macaubusiness.com

According to the Statistics and Census Service, visitor arrivals on package tours increased by 20.9% YoY to 591,000 in June. Visitors from the mainland (435,000) and Taiwan (33,000) grew by 29% and 50.1%, respectively.

 

WINNIE HO CALLS FOR HKEx PROBE OF SJM DIRECTORS,  Macau Daily Times

In a letter dated June 14, Winnie (Stanley Ho's estranged sister) asked the HK Securities and Futures Commission and the HK and Clearing Commission to investigate the conduct of Stanley Ho, Pansy Ho,  Angela Leong and Ambrose So.  Winnie Ho accuses the SJM directors of failing to fulfil their duties “competently, honestly and fairly” and questions their “reputation, character, reliability and financial integrity”.  She has filed more than 30 lawsuits against her brother in both Macau and HK.

 

MACAU: POLICY TO PROTECT EMPLOYMENT OF LOCAL WORKERS Jornal San Wa

Chief Executive Fernando Chui says that the government will put more employment policies and safeguards protecting the rights of local workers into place.  Authorities will offer training and continuing education opportunities, and negotiate with large enterprises on pay adjustment, adding employers should also share the returns with employees. Chui also stressed that the government would ensure imported labors will not weaken the benefits of local residents.

 

BANK NEW LOANS LENDING GO SLOW People's Daily

China's lending dropped to yuan $141.3BN in July - a seven month low since the government imposed tighter monetary policy in an effort to curb inflation.  July's figure was down MoM and $25.2BN lower YoY.  Despite tightening measures, certain sectors will continue to receive plenty of capital flow including agriculture, SMEs, subsidized housing, strategic industries and green development. 

 

HENGQUIN ISLAND TO ENJOY FREE TRADE Guangdong News

Beijing has agreed to give make Hengquin Island a free trade zone which should provide Zhuhai with more economic opportunities to accelerate its economic growth. Imported goods to Hengquin will enjoy import duty exemption, but will be subject to tariffs if the good's final destination is another part of the PRC.

 

 



MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR

This week's notable callouts include US and EU financial CDS spiking in conjunction with extraordinary volatility in the market last week. 


Financial Risk Monitor Summary (Across 3 Durations):

  • Short-term (WoW): Negative / 1 of 11 improved / 8 out of 11 worsened / 2 of 11 unchanged
  • Intermediate-term (MoM): Negative / 2 of 11 improved / 9 of 11 worsened / 0 of 11 unchanged
  • Long-term (150 DMA): Negative / 1 of 11 improved / 8 of 11 worsened / 2 of 11 unchanged

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - SUMMARY TABLE

 

1. US Financials CDS Monitor – Swaps widened across all domestic financials last week (27 of 28 issuers widening).  On a month-over-month basis, not one issuer was tighter.  The largest moves were at BAC, MS and LNC.

Widened the most vs last week: BAC, MS, LNC

Widened the least vs last week: PMI, ACE, TRV

Widened the most vs last month: PMI, MTG, RDN

Tightened the most/widened the least vs last month: ACE, CB, MMC

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - US CDS

 

2. European Financials CDS Monitor – Banks swaps in Europe were mostly wider last week.  34 of the 38 swaps were wider and 4 tightened.   

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - EU CDS

 

3. European Sovereign CDS – European sovereign swaps were tighter week over week in Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal and wider in Greece. For reference, France was wider by 2 bps (to 147 bp) week over week while Germany was wider by 4 bps (to 77 bp). We believe the CDS market is currently pricing in decreased hedge effectiveness in addition to improvement in sentiment around sovereign solvency.  Judging by the Greek bailout, regulators are making a concerted effort to design a bailout that does not trigger CDS.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - SOV CDS

 

4. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates were up significantly last week, ending at 8.27 versus 7.67 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - HY

 

5. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index fell 65 points last week, ending at 1509. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - LLI

 

6. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread rose slightly, ending the week at 28 versus 26.7 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - TED

 

7. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – Last week, the JOC index fell further to -3.6 from +2.6.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - JOCS

 

8. Greek Bond Yields Monitor – We chart the 10-year yield on Greek bonds.  Last week yields rose 30 bps, ending the week at 1554.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - GREECE

 

9. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps.  We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments.  Markit publishes index values daily on six 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. We track the 14-V1.  After bottoming in April, the index has been moving higher.  Last Friday, spreads closed at 159 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - MCDX

 

10. Baltic Dry Index – The Baltic Dry Index measures international shipping rates of dry bulk cargo, mostly commodities used for industrial production.  Higher demand for such goods, as manifested in higher shipping rates, indicates economic expansion.  Last week the index rose slightly, rising 19 points to 1287.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - BALTIC

 

11. 2-10 Spread – We track the 2-10 spread as a proxy for bank margins.  Last week the 2-10 spread tightened a further 19 bps to 207 bps.   

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - 2 10

 

Margin Debt Continues to Fall

We publish NYSE Margin Debt every month when it’s released.  This chart shows the S&P 500, inflation adjusted back to 1997, along with the inflation-adjusted level of margin debt (expressed as standard deviations from the long-run mean).  As the chart demonstrates, higher levels of margin debt are associated with increased risk in the equity market.  Our analysis shows that more than 1.5 standard deviations above the average level is the point where things start to get dangerous.  In May, margin debt decreased $9.5B to $306B.  On a standard deviation basis, margin debt fell to 1.21 standard deviations above the long-run average.

 

One limitation of this series is that it is reported on a lag.  The chart shows data through June.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT SWAPS REMAIN THE KEY INDICATOR - margin debt

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 11, 2011

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 93 points or -7.28% downside to 1093 and 0.61% upside to 1186.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 815

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 850 (-1752)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1256.14 (-33.25%)
  • VIX:  36.36 -6.77% YTD PERFORMANCE: +104.85%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.79 from 1.38 (+29.50%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 28.50
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.24 from 2.34    
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.04 from 2.15

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: NOPA oil, soybean data
  • 8:30 a.m.: Empire Manufacturing, est. 0, prior -3.76
  • 9 a.m.: Net Long-term TIC Flows, est. $30.1b, prior $23.6b
  • 10 a.m.: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 15, prior 15
  • 11 a.m.: Corn, soybeans, wheat
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills
  • 1:25 p.m.: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Alabama
  • 4 p.m.: Crop conditions: corn, cotton, soybeans, winter wheat

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Transocean offered to buy Norway’s Aker Drilling for $1.4b
  • Paulson & Co., Berkshire Hathaway, Pershing Square among those scheduled to release holdings as of June 30 by end of day today
  • ConAgra Foods said that Ralcorp Holdings rejected a $5.18b takeover offer within 24 hours and without discussion
  • Apple, Google and rival handset and software makers are competing for top patent lawyers as litigation floods courtrooms worldwide.
  • Rise of the Planet of the Apes” remained top movie in U.S. and Canadian theaters for second weekend as predicted, totaling $27.5m in ticket sales for News Corp.’s Twentieth Century Fox.

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

                               

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Hedge Fund Oil Bets Tumble to Eight-Month Low: Energy Markets
  • Rice Set to Climb as Thailand Plans Curbs, U.S. Crop Drops
  • Funds Slash Commodity Bets by Most in 18 Months on Economy
  • Mushrooms Join List of Radiation Threats to Japan’s Food Chain
  • Gold Drops for Third Day as Equities Rebound Trims Haven Demand
  • Oil Stems Three-Week Decline as Japan Counters Growth Concern
  • Ditching Nuclear Risks Third Lost Decade in Japan on Oil
  • Sugar to Stay High as China, Indonesia Buy More, ISO Says
  • Copper Advances as U.S., Japanese Data Boost Outlook for Demand
  • Aluminum Demand in China Set to Double Over Decade, XinRen Says
  • Recent Commodities Volatility ‘Unsustainable:’ Citigroup’s Morse
  • ConAgra Says Ralcorp Took Less Than a Day to Reject Revised Bid
  • Newcrest Has Record Full-Year Profit, Pays Special Dividend
  • Crude Climbs as Japanese Economy Contracts Less Than Forecast
  • Thai Sugar Production May Fall From a Record in 2011-2012
  •  Gold May Fall a Third Day in London on Reduced Investor Demand

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • Low quality rally in Europe with the important markets like Germany are underperforming.
  • UK Aug house price index (2.1%) m/m, (0.3%) y/y the first annual fall since Sep 2009 -- Rightmove

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: India and Korea are closed - generally rally was on low volume to lower highs; China +1.3%; Japan +1.4%; Singapore +0.82%

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Early Look

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Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

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