THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 3, 2011

This morning the USD breaking out above its intermediate-term TREND line; the most important global macro factor affecting everything that ticks right now.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 61 points or -1.61% downside to 1240 and 3.23% upside to 1301.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 84

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +445 (+2195)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1352.06 (+7.98%)
  • VIX:  23.28 -5.69% YTD PERFORMANCE: +31.72%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.52 from 2.10 (-27.82%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 25.81
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02% -0.04%
  • 10-Year: 2.64 from 2.66    
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.31 from 2.33

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: Jobless Claims, est. 405k, prior 398k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, est. (-47.5), prior (-46.8)
  • 10 a.m.: Freddie Mac weekly mortgage data
  • 10:30 a.m.: EIA natural gas
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $20b 10-day cash-mgmt bills

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Japan sold yen to intervene in currency markets, acting unilaterally, Finance Minister Noda said
  • Health Management Associates disclosed late yesterday had received subpoenas from Dept. of Health and Human Services: WSJ
  • European Commission must decide by today whether to open in- depth investigation of ramifications from Deutsche Boerse’s buyout of NYSE Euronext
  • Kraft Foods announces intent to create two independent publicly traded companies

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Rio Tinto First-Half Profit Trails Estimates as Costs Increase
  • Shipping Stuck in Recession on Expanding Glut: Chart of the Day
  • Macarthur Lures Bidders as Peabody Rouses China: Real M&A
  • Commodities to Rally, Buy Gold, JPMorgan Tells Investors
  • Natural Gas Spread at 11-Year Low on Record Heat: Energy Markets
  • Cargill Turkey Salmonella Link Spurs Second-Biggest U.S. Recall
  • Newcrest Says 10 Die in Helicopter Crash in Indonesia
  • Oil Trades Near 5-Week Low as Economy Concern Counters Stimulus
  • Gold Near Record as Declining Currencies Increase Haven Demand
  • Copper Premiums in China Drop to Four-Month Low on Demand
  • Malaysia Export Growth Accelerates as Commodities Shipments Gain
  • Coleman’s Merchant Commodity Fund Said to Decline 4.9% in July
  • Copper Gains From Three-Week Low as BHP Strike Caps Second Wee
  • Rogers May Boost Agriculture Investment on Food Shortages
  • Rio warns on commodities outlook
  • Escondida Workers to Weigh Offer at Strike-Hit Chilean Mine

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: Italy is crashing, FYI (down -28% since FEB) and Russia (the only tape that was not broken) finally breaks Hedgeye TREND line support

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: ex-China (up +23bps overnight), Asian equity markets flashing negative divergences vs yesterdays hopeful US equity close; KOSPI breaks hard

 THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director