The monthly Medicare Advantage data released a few days ago tells the tale of a robust open enrollment period, up 9.2% YoY. So robust, that more Americans are covered through a private MA plan than through traditional Fee for Service.
A few years ago, I would have told you that 50% was the upper limit. However, changes to the Medicare Part D benefit design and increased flexibility for dual eligible plans has altered the calculus. How much remains to be seen once we start heading into the Open Enrollment Period for 2025 when Part D rules change more.
The realization that Medicare Advantage could be the default option suggests a few important political responses. First, there is a coterie on both side of the hill that reject Medicare Advantage as privatization. Will they be able to acknowledge their culpability when they approved the Inflation Reduction Act's increased plan liability in the catastrophic phase? We will have to wait.
Second, will political leaders have to surrender to the sheer political force of 33M people enrolled and happy with "privatization?" Of course they will. The proliferation of 401(k) plans has made the stock market politically important and we should expect Medicare Advantage enrollment to do the same. Not that hubris is in order. I cringe when I hear CNC's comments about incumbency and the political power of marketplace enrollment.
This watershed moment is just not to be ignored
Reminder: We will dive into this deeper tomorrow at 10am. Link to invite note here.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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