Takeaway: Will the Supreme Court sink Donald Trump's second term ambitions? We'll cover the legal and political drivers for the Court's decision.


CLICK HERE to access the associated slides.

Donald Trump appears to be cruising to the Republican nomination and a general election rematch against President Joe Biden.  A constitutional challenge to Trump's eligibility to again serve as President, however, presents an existential threat to his candidacy.  Though largely underappreciated, the plausible prospect of a complete paradigm shift in election outcome expectations comes as investors begin contemplating post-election changes in economic, tax and regulatory policy.

On Thursday, February 8, the Supreme Court will hear arguments in Donald Trump's appeal of a Colorado court ruling that disqualified him from the ballot under the insurrection provision of the Fourteenth Amendment.  That constitutional provision, ratified shortly after the Civil War, prohibits insurrectionists from holding office unless supermajorities in both houses of congress remove the restriction.  Officials in multiple states -- in addition to the Colorado Supreme Court -- have concluded that Trump's effort to overturn the results of the 2020 election, including the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol that disrupted the certification Joe Biden's election victory, meets the definition of "insurrection."

A Supreme Court ruling against Trump -- and upholding the Colorado decision -- would likely doom his campaign.  Given Trump's massive lead in the polls, most political pundits believe the Supreme Court lacks the courage to actually disqualify Donald Trump even if a Court majority believes he is disqualified based on a pure reading of the relevant law.  Others predict a Trump Court victory is likely because a conservative Supreme Court majority, including three members appointed by former President Trump, will be inclined in his favor.  These are huge and completely speculative assumptions.

We will provide a basic overview of the legal and constitutional issues at the heart of the case and address the various political considerations that could filter into the Court's thinking.  The world will be tuning in as the Supreme Court, for the first time in the Court's history, considers the disqualification of a Presidential candidate under the Fourteenth Amendment.

We hope you will join us.


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