NewsWire: 2/2/24
Hope you enjoyed the first By the Numbers post last week. Today, I'm introducing its counterpart: What We’re Following. Where By the Numbers is all about data, What We’re Following is all about research: reports, studies, surveys, and other engaging reads.
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Chart of the Week: The American Gerontocracy
You knew that U.S. lawmakers are old and have gotten older over time. But this chart drives home just how far this trend has gone in the U.S. compared to other legislators in the developed world.
It comes from a new working paper from political scientists at UC Berkeley and Stanford. They argue that U.S. campaign finance policy helps contribute to the overrepresentation of older politicians. In the U.S., private donations make up a disproportionate source of political financing relative to other countries; the average of wealth of individuals has been growing older; and people are more likely to donate to political candidates closer to them in age. The median dollar in U.S. elections comes from a 66-year-old—”significantly older,” the researchers point out, “than the median voter, candidate, or elected official.”
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Study of the Week
The latest annual report from the American Cancer Society spotlights two trends we’ve been following for some time. Overall, cancer deaths in the United States have fallen significantly over the past 30 years. However, cancer incidence rates for six of the top 10 most common cancers—including breast cancer, prostate cancer, and melanoma—are rising. Rates of cervical cancer and colorectal cancer are also increasing among younger adults under age 55.
Rising incidence rates are not necessarily alarming. In part, they may simply reflect increased screening, which is leading to higher diagnosis rates. However, the unusual uptick in cancer cases among younger adults suggests that something else (e.g., obesity, processed foods, environmental factors) is at play.
- More from our archives: “Cancer Diagnoses Rise Among Younger Adults,” “Millennials at Higher Risk for Obesity-Related Cancers"
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Stats of the Week
- Office vacancy rates have hit an all-time high (nearly 20%). This comes as the Kastle Systems Back-to-Work Barometer—our go-to indicator of trends in office occupancy rates—shows that the share of Americans swiping into offices pretty much leveled off in mid-January at around 46%, slightly lower than what it was at the same time last year.
- Speaking of which: The “value of teleworking vs. in-person” debate rages on. The latest research is mixed. According to the San Francisco Fed, the increase in remote work has neither boosted nor harmed U.S. productivity growth. And according to the University of Pittsburgh, S&P 500 firms with return-to-office mandates have done no better or worse in terms of financial performance than those without them. They did see, however, one unambiguously negative result: sharp declines in employee job satisfaction after the mandates were implemented.
- Last year, my team highlighted research suggesting that our peers can influence our choice to have kids. Now comes an IZA study offering another example of “social contagion” in action: Among young adults without a college degree, having a longtime best friend who suffered a serious injury within the past year increases the probability of own opioid misuse by 7 percentage points. This is huge given that the average incidence of ever misusing opioids is 17%. (The researchers used severe injuries as a predictor for opioid misuse instead of studying misuse rates directly to avoid the “reflection problem.”)
- More from our archives: “How Much Do Your Peers Influence Your Choice to Have Kids?” and “‘Contagion’ Helps Explain China’s Low Fertility”
- In an IKEA study of more than 37K people in 38 countries, South Koreans were more likely than the global average to say they get the “most joy” out of being home alone (40% vs. 30% average) and taking naps—and far less likely to say they find joy in spending their time with others, laughing with their family, playing with kids, or getting hugs from loved ones. Rather than seeing home as a place for family bonding, residents of South Korea—home to the world’s lowest birthrate—sees it as a place for relaxing in solitude.
- More from our archives: “Family Matters”
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Recommended Reads
- Matthew Shaer in the NYT on why American drivers are so deadly
- The Economist on what the science of aging has to say about Biden or Trump’s odds of making it through a second term
- Another take on the growing political divide between increasingly liberal young women and increasingly conservative young men, from Kings College London professor Alice Evans on Substack. Evans’s post is thoughtful and interesting, if a bit stereotypically “academic” in certain ways. I began discussing this topic in my last column and am writing a followup essay that addresses some of the points here and much more. Stay tuned.
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