TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 15, 2011
Our Q3 Macro Themes call is at 11AM EST today – ping me if you still need the dial in info. Our presentation of European debt maturities might grab your attention. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -0.75% downside to 1318 and 0.70% upside to 1318.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1732 (-2696)
- VOLUME: NYSE 925.21 (4.71%)
- VIX: 20.80 +4.47% YTD PERFORMANCE: +17.18%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.0 from 1.86 (7.89%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 24.47
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
- 10-Year: 2.98 from 2.92
- YIELD CURVE: 2.60 from 2.55
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 8:30 a.m.: Consumer Price Index, M/m est. (-0.1%), prior 0.2%
- 8:30 a.m.: Empire Manufacturing, est. 5, prior (-7.79)
- 9:15 a.m.: Industrial production, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
- 9:15 a.m.: Capacity utilization, est. 76.9%, prior 76.7%
- 9:55 a.m.: UMich Confidence, est. 72.0, priopr 71.5
- 1 p.m.: Baker Hughes Rig Count
WHAT TO WATCH:
- President Barack Obama told congressional leaders to report to him within two days on what debt-limit options members can support after yesterday’s talks
- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warned there’s no possible extension to time limit to raise debt ceiling as S&P joined Moody’s in reviewing U.S.’s top credit rating
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Pizza Demand in Asia Boosts U.S. Cheese Exports to Record, Kraft’s Costs
- BHP Agrees to Buy Petrohawk for $12.1 Billion in Cash to Add Natural Gas
- Crude Heads for First Weekly Decline in Three Weeks on U.S. Debt Concern
- Gold Falls, Paring Weekly Advance, as Rally to Record Price Spurs Selling
- Wheat Slides for a Second Day as Importers May Favor Russia Over U.S., EU
- LME Doubles Minimum Delivery Rates for Warehouses Holding the Most Metal
- Rice Exports From Vietnam May Beat Target on Bigger Harvests, New Markets
- Copper May Gain on Reports Predicted to Show Stronger U.S. Manufacturing
- Sugar Drops as Banking Stress Tests Weigh on Commodities; Cocoa Declines
- China Is Tightening Rare-Earth Access Even as Sale Quotas Climb, EU Says
- Glut of Natural Gas Produces Record U.S. Exports to Mexico: Energy Markets
- Beef Contamination Spreads in Japan as Fukushima Radiation Taints Straw
- Wheat Exports From Australia Climb as China Boosts Purchases After Drought
- Oil May Advance Next Week on Speculation About Fed Stimulus, Survey Shows
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
- EUROPE: plain ugly TRENDs continue to develop with Italy in crash mode (down -20% since February) and Greece is gone (down -31% since February)
ASIAN MARKETS
- ASIA: solid is as solid does; China up for the 4th day in 5 (were long $CAF) and the rest of region continues to shape up (Korea, Indonesia)
MIDDLE EAST
Howard Penney
Managing Director