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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 13, 2011

Managing risk in a European vacuum won't work - the world is much bigger than that. China, Copper, and UST yields matter.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or -0.96% downside to 1301 and 1.25% upside to 1330.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 713

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -482 (+1686)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 924.46 (+11.46%)
  • VIX:  19.87 +8.05 YTD PERFORMANCE: +11.97%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.24 from 2.88 (-22.28%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.36
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
  • 10-Year: 2.92 from 2.94
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.55 from 2.57

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • MBA mortgage applications index fell 5.1% week ended July 8; Refis down 6.2%, 4th declining week; Purchases declined 2.6%; rose last week; Avg. 30-yr fixed rate 4.55% vs prior week’s 4.69%, biggest drop in 3 months
  • 8:30 a.m.: Import price index M/m, est. (0.6%), prior 0.2%
  • 9:10 a.m.: Fed’s Rosengren speaks on economic outlook
  • 10 a.m.: Bernanke speaks to House on semi-annual economic outlook
  • 10:30 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $5b 14-day cash management bills
  • 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $21b in 10-yr notes reopening
  • 1:20 p.m.: Fed’s Fisher speaks on economy in Dallas
  • 2 p.m.: Monthly budget statement

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • U.K. coalition govt. will today side with Labour Party in calling on News Corp. to withdraw bid for control of BSkyB; Rupert Murdoch now facing at least six investigations
  • Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell proposed yesterday granting President Obama unilateral power to raise debt ceiling as “last-choice option” to avoid default
  • Secretary of State Clinton meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Washington
  • Irish PM says it is time for Europe to respond comprehensively to debt crisis adding that there is no point having a leaders' meeting on Friday that doesn't come up with a conclusive solution. Ireland's problem is with Europe he said
  • Bullish sentiment increases to 44.1% from 40.9% in the latest US Investor's Intelligence poll; Bearish sentiment decreases to 22.6% from 24.9%

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Seven-Month Wait for Aluminum From Detroit Drives LME to Review Warehouses
  • Corn Imports by China Seen Doubling to Cool Fastest Inflation Since 2008
  • Copper Gains for a Second Day as Chinese Economic Growth Exceeds Estimates
  • Gold Climbs, Nears Record as Europe’s Sovereign-Debt Crisis Fuels Demand
  • Oil Trades Near Highest in Three Days in New York on China Economic Growth
  • Corn Drops as Shortage Concern Ebbs; Rice Reaches Highest Price Since 2008
  • Gold Investment in India Seen Extending Advance to Record as Incomes Surge
  • Coffee Rises on Concern Vietnamese Supplies May Be Limited; Cocoa Gains
  • Copper, Aluminum Production in China Gain to Records in June, Bureau Says
  • Aluminum’s Two-Year Advance Is ‘Intact’ Above $2,300: Technical Analysis
  • Gecamines’ Undisclosed Sale of Congo Copper Mines May Threaten Share Offer
  • Fuel-Oil Loss in Asia Set to Double as Supply Surge Looms: Energy Markets
  • Sri Lanka Seeking to Catch Singapore With Help From China: Freight Markets

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: important recovery by the DAX- TREND line support (7136) -see if it holds; Italy was immediate-term TRADE oversold yesterday; here's the bounce

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: outstanding GDP print by the Chinese at +9.5% (beats our number and we are the bulls); China up +1.5% on news > 2732 TRADE breakout line

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director