When will the U.S. enter a recession? As Keith McCullough explained on The Macro Show this morning, it’s already begun. 

  • Retail (XRT) just wrapped up a third straight month of declines (down -11% since August 1). 
  • Regional Banks (KRE) have shown no signs of recovering from the March liquidity crisis (down -33% since March 1). 
  • Capital Expenditures (Capex) have declined steadily since McCullough called the cycle high in November 2021. 

Meanwhile, the latest ISM Manufacturing report just collapsed from 49.0 (already in contraction) in September to 46.7 in October. New Orders just crashed to a new 6-month low of 45.5 (14th straight month of contraction).

“The cycle is who we thought it was,” McCullough explains.

“When you get into recession for the next three quarters, do you think people's decision to spend on capital expenditures goes up or down? It goes down. It's been going down. I wouldn't even call that slowly, but it goes down all at once.” 

Watch the full clip above. 

McCullough: ‘We're Already in a Rolling Recession’ - TMS Banner