ON THE SENATE FLOOR: The Senate will continue to consider nominations and will resume consideration of a minibus that packages three FY 2024 appropriations bills – Agriculture/FDA, Military Construction/VA, and Transportation/HUD. On Wednesday, Senators will get a classified briefing from Administration officials on developments in Israel and Gaza. There is talk that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will drop a supplemental aid bill for Israel and Ukraine.
IN THE HOUSE: The House is planning to vote today around noon for a new Speaker. The current Republican nominee for Speaker, Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH), has previously said that the vote shouldn’t be held unless he had the votes locked down to win the post. Even though he remains short of that goal, Jordan said today the House should vote on Tuesday. To recap how we got here:
- October 3: The House voted 216-210 in favor of removing Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as Speaker. Following the vote, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) became Acting Speaker Pro Tempore until the election of a new Speaker.
- October 11: House Republicans chose Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) as their nominee for Speaker. Scalise won the nomination over Jim Jordan on a vote of 113-99.
- October 12: Recognizing that he could not round up 217 Republican votes to win the Speakership on the House floor, Scalise announced he was withdrawing from the race and would remain as Majority Leader.
- October 13: House Republicans voted to nominate Jordan for Speaker. Jordan won the nomination over Rep. Austin Scott (R-GA), 124-81. Following that vote, another secret-ballot vote was held to determine how many Republicans would support Jordan on the House floor. The vote showed 152 in support and 55 against.
- October 16: House Republicans met last night to discuss the race for Speaker - Jordan has gained significant ground over the weekend and over the past 24 hours. While he is still short of 217, pressure on House Republicans to end the Speaker saga is mounting - and Jordan holdouts will face additional pressure from conservative grassroots to elevate Jordan. We know you've heard this story before, but in a flashback to McCarthy's initial run for Speaker in January, there could be multiple rounds of voting on the floor today should Jordan not hit 217.
Speaker Pro Tem: After the tragedy of September 11, then-Speaker Dennis Hastert established a bipartisan working group to, among other things, study ways that Congress could continue to function in the event of a terrorist attack that might result in a vacancy in the Office of the Speaker. In 2003, the House adopted a rule providing that “the Speaker is required to deliver to the Clerk a list of Members in the order in which each shall act as Speaker pro tempore in the case of a vacancy in the Office of Speaker.” On January 7, 2023, Speaker Kevin McCarthy delivered to the Clerk a letter with his list. The names on the list remained a secret until October 3, when it was revealed that Rep. Patrick McHenry would take the gavel from Speaker McCarthy.
Because this procedure has never been used before, there have been questions as to how much authority McHenry has in his temporary role. One view on that has been put forth by the Democratic staff of the House Rules Committee, which has reviewed the legislative history of the House rule and concluded that “the authority of the acting Speaker pro tempore is strictly ministerial and the position’s sole role is to guide the House toward the election of a new Speaker or Speaker pro tempore.” In its two-page report, the staff notes that “the plain language of the rule and the legislative history are clear: the acting Speaker pro tempore has no authority other than taking steps necessary and appropriate to further the election of a new Speaker.”
While the McHenry scenario is plausible - especially if today's floor votes end in chaos - it will usher in a new set of challenges and landmines for the Republican House leadership.
COMMITTEE ACTION:
Wednesday, October 18
- Senate Budget Committee Hearing: “Improving Care, Lowering Costs: Achieving Health Care Efficiency”
- Senate Finance Committee Hearing: “Medicare Advantage Annual Enrollment Cracking Down on Deceptive Practices and Improving Senior Experiences”
- Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee consideration of nominations for the FAA, FTC, Amtrak Board of Directors, and Consumer Product Safety Commission
- Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Hearing: “Examining the Implications of Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency for Clean Water Act Protection of Wetlands and Streams”
- Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Hearing: “Promotion Safety, Innovation, and Competitiveness in U.S. Commercial Human Space Activities”
- Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee Hearing: To consider the nomination of Monica Bertagnolli to be Director of the National Institutes of Health
- House Oversight Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic Hearing: “Strengthening Biosafety and Biosecurity Standards: Protecting Against Future Pandemics”
- House Foreign Affairs Committee Meeting: “Making Putin Pay: The Case for Transferring Russian Sovereign Assets to Ukraine”
- House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Highways and Transportation Hearing: “Running on Empty: The Highway Trust Fund”
- House Homeland Security Committee Hearing: “An Examination of the Iranian Regime’s Threats to Homeland Security”
- House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Innovation, Data, and Commerce Hearing: “Safeguarding Data and Innovation: Building the Foundation for the Use of Artificial Intelligence”
- House Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Hearing: “Balancing Knowledge and Governance: Foundations for Effective Risk Management of Artificial Intelligence”
- House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources: “Examining the Biden Administration’s Unprecedented Obstruction of the BOEM Offshore Leasing Program”
- House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Wildlife, and Fisheries Hearing:
- H.R. 4389, “Migratory Birds of the Americas Conservation Act of 2023”
- H.R. 4770, “Chesapeake Bay Science, Education, and Ecosystem Enhancement Act of 2023”
- H.R. 5009, “Wildlife Innovation and Longevity Drive Reauthorization Act” (WILD Act)
- House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security Hearing: “Protecting Beneficiaries from the Harm of Improper Payments”
Thursday, October 19
- Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing to examine the Department of Energy’s Decision-Making Process for Awarding Competitive Loans and Grants Funded Through the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law
- House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee Hearing: “What’s the Prognosis?: Examining Medicare Proposals to Improve Patient Access to Care & Minimize Red Tape for Doctors”
- House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation Hearing: “Can it Work? Outside Perspectives on DOD’s Replicator Program”
- House Budget Committee Hearing: “Sounding the Alarm: Examining the Need for a Fiscal Commission”
- House Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property, and the Internet Hearing: “IP and Strategic Competition with China: Part III: Theft, Cybersecurity, and AI”
THE UNDERAPPRECIATED THREAT TO TRUMP'S REPUBLICAN NOMINATIONTUESDAY, OCTOBER 17 AT 10:00 AM
CLICK HERE to watch live.
On November 2, the Minnesota Supreme Court will hear arguments in a constitutional challenge to former President Donald Trump's eligibility to again serve as President. The court will work quickly with a potential appeal directly to the U.S. Supreme Court. It is possible the question of Donald Trump's disqualification from the Presidency could arrive at the U.S. Supreme Court by the end of this year or perhaps very early next year.
The Fourteenth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution disqualifies from future office former officials who took an oath to uphold the Constitution but then engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the Constitution. Trump's opponents contend that his actions to block the transfer of Presidential power, including actions involving the January 6, 2021 riot and attacks on the U.S. Capitol, trigger the disqualification provision. Trump's supporters contend the Fourteenth Amendment prohibition does not apply to him and that its enforcement against Trump would undermine the right of voters to select the President in our democracy.
The case to disqualify Donald Trump from the Presidency is not frivolous. Academic opinion is far from unanimous, but several very prominent legal scholars and professionals believe that Trump is indeed disqualified under the Fourteenth Amendment.
If Trump is disqualified by the courts from holding the office, the implications for the 2024 election are massive. Of course, the policy impacts could be dramatic as the nation responds to major geopolitical, fiscal, and technological challenges.
Please join us as we highlight the merits of Donald Trump's legal risk, the timing for key court rulings, and the potential impact on the upcoming elections for the White House and congressional races. We will also consider the possible alternatives at the top of both the Republican and Democratic tickets if the Supreme Court shakes the foundation of the current and conventional political outlook heading in 2024.
We hope you will join us.
