In February we detailed out our Home Retail Scenario Analysis. At that time we built to a bull case for the home retail industry of down 3.5%, which would translate to comps for the likes of HD/LOW down ~2% best case, when consensus was then expecting flattish. Our base case was implying something closer to down 6% comps for those retailers, bear case down 10%. Since that point in time the housing data has tracked worse than we would have expected, and worse than we put into our base case. Existing home sales in depression, 30 year mortgage rates are now at generational (23 yr) highs, Active listings are at cycle lows, and nobody seems to be crossing their fingers expecting a ‘pivot’ like the common narrative was back in fall of 2022.
On Wednesday October 18th at 12:30 PM ET we’re hosting a call to update our view on the home retail landscape and home improvement retailers. We’ll review the latest data on the housing front and take a shot at gauging the demand/comp trends including timing of when comps see a bottom, which is unlikely to be seen until at least 2024. We’ll also provide updated estimates for the Home Improvement names.
Relevant Tickers: LOW, HD, FND, TSCO, WSM, RH, BBY, W, ARHS, LOVE
Call Details
Date/Time: Wednesday October 18th at 12:30 PM ET
Add to calendar CLICK HERE
Live Video Link CLICK HERE
