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“I was used to South Africa, where people would just rob and kill you.”
-Elon Musk
Ever been to Sask? That’s short, in Canadian hockey speak, for Saskatchewan. It’s also where Musk immigrated to from South Africa in 1989. He took the ole Greyhound bus there, eh!
When he got to Sask he went on to explain that “I slept on my backpack until I realized that not everyone was a murderer.” -Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson, pg 41
When I came to Wall Street from Thunder Bay, Ontario in the summer of 1998, I wasn’t used to the “culture” or who “they” were. I’m almost 50 years old now and I make a living not letting them rob my hard-earned capital.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
If you don’t know who “they” are, you’re the sucker on the bid. My subscribers are cool with me calling them out and calling it like it is. If you didn’t know they’re out there, every day, creating their own #ExitLiquidity, now you know…
Yesterday, they gave us another Selling Opportunity. So let’s review that, in terms of both US Stocks and Bonds:
A) US STAh-kks!
- After being down for 4 of the last 5 weeks, SPY opened down, then reversed, closing up +0.6% on the day
- The intraday reversal came on more #MM7 (Magnificently Manipulated 7) buying post a #BullyOrder
- #BullyOrder: “uptick in emini volume:11,600 eminis bot as SP futures move from 4351 to 4361, $2.6B notional"
- It’s really easy for them to move the entire tape post the Lunch-time Lull on an order like that
- Especially on the 2nd lowest VOLUME day of 2023 with the Bond Market closed
- Total US Equity Volume was down -21% vs. the prior trading day, and -19% vs. the 1-month average
B) US Treasury Bonds (TLT)
- “Look at how TLT acts – this means that Israel is taking out the highs in Bond Yields.” -Old Wall Brokers
- LOL
- Old Wall Media immediately picked up on a few Fed Heads talking about Bond Yields being “high enough”…
- UST 10yr Yield got marked down -15 basis points (when the Bond Market re-opened) but haven’t moved since
- My Risk Range™ Signal on the UST 10yr Yield sees NO CHANGE this morning
- Whatever they want/need me to see in Bond Yields vs. SPY, I’m not buying it (CPI #accelerating = Thursday)
Now you know why I will never work on the Sell Side desk at Goldman Sachs.
By the way, if you want to buy something from GS, you should really look into their Bear Squeeze Baskets. They “act” great on days like yesterday. They’re built to get the lowest IQ players in The Game to believe dumb narratives:
A) The Goldman “High Retail Sentiment” Basket squeezed +0.7% yesterday
B) The Goldman “Liquid Most Short” Baskets squeezed +0.6% yesterday
In other words, the names that the “Retail Yolo Investor” owns were as green as the “smart” Hedge Fund consensus shorts. That’s another way for them to make things go up:
A) The Uninformed Volume (Retail Investors who chase price) chases (on #decelerating volume)
B) The panic and perf stricken Hedgie who is selling low and covering higher is doing the same on no volume
Oh, you don’t think all of this is happening, every day? You didn’t know that it has NOTHING to do with “fundamentals”? C’mon, let’s evolve a bit here. Use some Hedg-eyes to see what’s actually going on.
Despite SPY being down for 4 of the last 5 weeks and the Russell (IWM) and NASDAQ (QQQ) having -13% and -8% DRAWDOWNS from their #MOAM’s (Mother of All Markups) in July, did you know that QQQ has been UP for 14 of the last 15 Mondays?
Yep. True story.
QQQ was down 4 Monday’s ago, but that was it. So what up with that, bro? There were no #BullyOrders or big “flows” to observe on 14 of the last 15 Mondays, were there? Double LOL.
Think about it for more than one Street Smart minute…
Let’s say I ran $100B or $1T (Trillion)… and I’ve been getting smoked being Long Duration (TLT). What’s unloading $25B or a $100B of Treasuries and plowing OPM (other people’s money) into the only place I can find with liquidity (#MM7)?
You know that 90% of the widely heralded “YEAR TO DATE” SPY “return” is in those seven #MM7 stocks, right?
I can’t for the life of me (and I have a lot of teammates researching these matters for me) find one CNBC article from this weekend that highlighted the NEGATIVE YEAR TO DATE return of -0.9% for the Russell 2000…
Nothing to see here. All good and safe. Trust the State and the Elites while this Thunder Bay Bear sleeps with his Hedg-eyes open.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets
UST 30yr Yield 4.61-5.02% (bullish)
UST 10yr Yield 4.50-4.87% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 4.98-5.16% (bullish)
High Yield (HYG) 71.99-73.51 (bearish)
SPX 4 (bearish)
NASDAQ 12,966-13,533 (bearish)
RUT 1 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 160-170 (bearish)
Energy (XLE) 84.42-93.52 (bullish)
Utilities (XLU) 55.07-60.12 (bearish)
Shanghai Comp 3064-3127 (bearish)
Nikkei 30,335-32,177 (bullish)
BSE Sensex (India) 65,129-66,295 (bullish)
DAX 14,959-15,452 (bearish)
VIX 16.60-20.66 (bullish)
USD 105.33-107.05 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 82.01-95.33 (bullish)
Oil (Brent) 82.17-96.98 (bullish)
Nat Gas 2.91-3.44 (bullish)
Gold 1 (neutral)
AAPL 168-180 (bearish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
