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Another data point in the narrative of EU divisiveness…

Some key data points arrived this week in regards to Italian economic health. On Tuesday CPI numbers were released for September which came in slightly better than August on a year-over-year basis, though still up almost 4%. Today, industrial activity data for August was released showing an unsurprising drop in both sales and orders.

A more telling measure of Italian economic credibility came from three Libyan government entities: The Central Bank of Libya, Libyan Investment Authority and Libyan Foreign Bank. These three entities boosted their holding in floundering UniCredit to 4.2% and committed to participate to the tune of almost 10% in an upcoming 6 billion Euro secondary. UniCredit, Italy’s largest bank, has seen its balance sheet shredded by the credit markets and has been rushing to shore up capital.

Italy has always been one of the weaker hands at the EU table and their finance industry has a long history of unsavory practices and corruption. The fact that one of their preeminent financial institution is receiving a bailout from a country that has just reemerged from rogue status and remains controlled by an unbalanced megalomaniac dictator (recall our 9/5 post) says a lot. This isn’t Warren Buffet to the Rescue – this is Muammar Qaddafi.

As a point of fact, Libya has a long investment history in Italy. During the decades when the rest of the world shunned doing business with them because they sponsored terrorism. The Libyan government acquired stakes in Italian banks, utilities & sports teams, but the timing of this move coming so closely on the heels of Berlusconi’s pledge to compensate Libya monetarily for colonial period abuse suggests that Italy and Libya are becoming increasingly chummy.

This is unnerving.

Andrew Barber
Director