CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation Re-Acceleration #Reiterated

Today’s Q3 Mid-Quarter Update Macro Themes presentation has 188 slides in the deck.*

On slide 22, we show the most important starting point to have a mathematically oriented debate about headline US INFLATION: the 2-year Base Effects for Headline CPI (Consumer Price Inflation). I’ll summarize with 3 critical modeling points:

1. PEAK CYCLE Base Effect was the monthly one in JUN of 2023 at +7.25%
2. For the NEXT 2 months, the Base Effect EASES by 45 basis points (that’s a lot) to 6.80%
3. WHEN Base Effects are EASING and things are INFLATING, headline INFLATION #accelerates

*Institutional subscribers will have LIVE access to the content and presentation (ping sales@hedgeye.com).