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Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today’s Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha. If you’re interested in learning more about the Hedgeye-Tier 1 Alpha partnership, there’s more information here.

We thought this is an interesting chart for something different, a chart likely to keep you up at night, but it’s Friday, so you can sleep on Saturday with no harm, no foul.

Interest on government debt has now accelerated to almost a trillion dollars ($969 billion). Another way of saying that is servicing the debt is now more than the total military budget for 2022 of $876 billion, or more than 3.5% of GDP.

Tier 1 Alpha: Interest on Government Debt Exceeds 2022 Military Budget - gov debt

Certainly, interest rates play a significant role in the notable surge in debt service. However, a closer look over the past 2 to 3 months reveals the true underlying factor. Government revenues totaled $418 billion in June, while fiscal expenditures reached $646 billion. Similarly, in July, fiscal revenues amounted to $276 billion, with fiscal expenditures hitting $496 billion. As we assess the fiscal year's initial 10 months, the budget shortfall hit the roof at $1.613 trillion, more than doubling the preceding year's deficit of $726 billion. What about receivables, you might ask? Tax receipts experienced an 11% decline during the first 9 months of fiscal 2023.

Don't miss the entire Tier 1 team at Hedgeye HQ with CEO Keith McCullough for a Real Conversation on Tuesday, September 5th at 11am. Click here for more information.

Learn more about the Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha.