Indiana was a little disappointing but there were mitigating factors. We expect MO and IA to be better.
Indiana recently reported a 5.4% decline in May gaming revenues, with casinos operated by PNK, PENN, ASCA, and CZR all taking a big hit. However, we would like to highlight several points regarding the data.
- Horseshoe Southern Indiana casino was closed for two days in May due to the Ohio River flooding.
- Belterra (PNK) reported negative table win of 260k. Even though many players lined up during the Kentucky Derby, the casino had very bad hold. Belterra reported May revenues declining 14% YoY; if table and slot hold was normal, Belterra revenues would have gained about 7% YoY. Belterra represents 9% of PNK’s total property EBITDA
- May 2011 had one less Sunday than May 2010 which cost the market about 2% of YoY growth.
- Ameristar East Chicago’s gaming revenue declined 7% but was up 15% in April. ASCA EC represents only 11% of ASCA’s property EBITDA, and the property is still on track to make our $13 million Q2 estimate.
While Indiana’s sequential revenues based on the prior 3 months, seasonally adjusted, slowed in May as shown in the chart below, we expect seasonally adjusted, sequential revenues to rebound in June. Our favorite names continue to be ASCA and PNK, which even with the lower May revenues factored in, are still on pace to beat Q2 EPS estimates quite handily.