Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Financials analyst Josh Steiner.
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Outstanding US Federal Debt (the portion held by the public) is projected to increase +92.6% from 2023 through 2033. To put some specifics around that, the US ended Fiscal 2022 (Year-End Sep 30) with 24.25 Trillion in Outstanding Debt Held by the Public. The YE 2023 ending balance outstanding is projected to be 25.77 Trillion. Fast forward a decade to 2033, and that figure is projected by the CBO to grow to 46.71 Trillion, an increase of >22 Trillion or +92.6% from 2022 levels. Bear in mind, this assumes no negative shocks. So, no wars, no recessions, no new pandemics, and no other general right tail externalities that would necessitate above “normal” levels of borrowing. Just on ordinary-course-of-business glide path, the government still ends up with 46.7 Trillion in debt by 2033. |
