In the dog days of summer, Keith McCullough has noticed a decline in productivity, not within Hedgeye Nation, but everywhere outside it.
Traffic has been quiet on his drive to the office. Nobody's joining him on Twitter (or should we say X) when he's posting his latest findings, #timestamped well before dawn.
"People aren't working, I'm certain of it. People are fucking lazy," Hedgeye's CEO said on today's episode of The Macro Show. "Not our subscribers. The ones who are listening are working. I hate to admit it, I did get up at 3:30 this morning. I was so excited to play the game, I just couldn't sleep. There was nobody tweeting for the first hour of my work. I'm like, 'Can someone at least do some work before 5?'"
Now is not the time to take a break. In fact, he said, "This should be your hardest-working week."
Among the notable events on the calendar:
- U.S. PMI Manufacturing data was released yesterday.
- The FOMC meets tomorrow, with another 25 bps rate hike all but certain.
- The monthly PCE report comes out Friday.
- On top of all that, $27 trillion in market cap reports earnings this week, including Meta, Microsoft and Google.
"You know what happened? The Fourth Turning happened," McCullough said, referencing Neil Howe's new book, which also hit shelves this week. "People think they're all going to get paid because of their year-to-date returns, and they don't have to work. That's fine. It's not going to end well. We're going to keep working hard."
Inside Hedgeye's walls, it's business as usual.
Those who did their homework by tuning into today's recording of The Tex & Rooster Show received additional insights on what to expect from Tech giants' earnings reports. In short, everything is on the table.
"Google and Microsoft are right in the middle of the risk range," explained Ryan Ricci. "That leaves a lot of possibilities going into an earnings season where AI has people believing anything."
"It could go either way," added Taylor Burnette. "The S&P is telling you it's reaching the top end of its range, and the range has widened as well, which means more volatility. We have very large vol events coming in the next 24 hours. Google and Microsoft printing, the Fed rate hike decision and a large amount of the S&P earnings reports are going to hit."
Maybe we'll see continued growth when Microsoft reports earnings after the close today, as was the case last quarter. But if not, look out below. When previously soaring Tesla reported a deceleration last week, the stock price dropped 8-10%.
There's plenty more where that came from in earnings season, but the market outlook isn't all bad. Six analysts from our Macro team will share a mixture of their highest-conviction long and short ideas tomorrow on The Pitch. This fan-favorite, alpha-generating webcast will give you an inside look at how we decide what positions to put on.
The rest of the world may be taking days off in the heat of the summer, but this is not a week to do nothing.
"I love God, I love my firm, I love my family. If you don't like that, I don't care," McCullough says. "We love our subscribers and we love that we outwork everybody."
