Editor's Note: Below is a complimentary research note written by Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe. Be sure to check out his highly anticipated new book, The Fourth Turning is Here, which is available for purchase beginning today.

Neil Howe: Trust in US Institutions Continues to Decline - 11.06.2020 fourth turning cartoon

Americans' faith in national institutions continues to reach record lows. Over the past two years, confidence in the medical industry and the presidency have fallen by double digits, according to a new poll from Gallup.

Every year, Gallup polls Americans on their trust in U.S. establishments. According to its 2023 results, the average confidence in U.S. institutions is only 26%. That's one point below where it was in 2022 (27%) and 6 points lower than in 2021. 

Neil Howe: Trust in US Institutions Continues to Decline - July18 1

Let's break down the data by specific establishments. The top three most-trusted institutions are small businesses (65%), the military (60%) and the police (45%). The three least trusted are television news (14%), big business (14%) and Congress (8%). The establishments where trust has declined the most since 2021 are the military (-9 percentage points), Supreme Court (-9 pp), medical industry (-10 pp) and the presidency (-12 pp).

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Why have their public images suffered over the past two years? Institutional perceptions have become increasingly partisan. The military has come under criticism from the right for its "woke messaging." (See "U.S. Military Struggles to Find Recruits.”) The left has lost faith in the Supreme Court after controversial rulings like the Dobbs decision. (See "Trust in Supreme Court Sinks to Record Low.”) The pandemic has revealed deep partisan divides over the medical industry. (See "Covid-19 Reveals Deep and Familiar Divides.”) And Joe Biden's approval rating has plummeted among Republicans and independents. (See "2022 Midterms.”) 

Overall, this survey is another indicator of America's growing pessimism. (See "Is America Losing Faith in America?") Even well-respected institutions like the military aren't immune to the public's darkening mood.