Hedgeye Cartoon of the Day: Bull-Bear Fight
Hedgeye REITs Chart of the Day: TRADE Oversold, Just Gotta Suck it Up!
Source: Hedgeye Macro Team
Quote of Quad 4: "The fundamental problem here is that you have entire business models and capital structures that have been built up over the past decade that were just based off of zero percent or very low levels of interest rates and now with rates and spreads where they are, and continue to go, the math just doesn’t work.” - Andrew Freedman on “The Call,” 9.27.2022
Recent Events:
Black Book: Active Short Digital Realty (DLR) - Replay LINK
Ticker: DLR
Company Name: Active Short Digital Realty
Subsector: Data Centers
Headline: Passing along some initial buyside feedback from our Black Book presentation yesterday
- We held our Black Book presentation on Active Short DLR yesterday, 6.26.23. To be candid initial feedback was light at least initially, we think owing to the news around PLD but more so SLG's 245 Park deal overlapping with the work. This is what we have heard so far.
- It's an interesting idea and we agree with the capital intensity argument, but the questions are "will investors care" and "how long can they get away with underinvesting/under-reporting?" And can the capital markets solve their problems via being able to tap the ATM above ~$100/share?
- Investors generally agree that the stock is overpriced and that there is forward earnings risk to the downside - dilutive asset sales, repricing the capital structure, issuing dilutive equity and potential deterioration of internal growth.
- The concept of capitalized interest/overhead exclusion from the metrics investors are being asked to value the stock with, but at the same time directly benefitting the metrics management is paid on, is interesting to folks. Especially for a serial developer.
- They also agree, generally, with the idea that the stock is dramatically overpriced. The question is "do investors care" or will they continue to buy the narrative?
- We find it interesting that there is general understanding that the AI revenue opportunity is perhaps 2+ years out, and that in DLR's case it will require an immense amount of capital spend to realize.
Ticker: MPW
Company Name: Active Short Medical Properties (Dis)Trust
Subsector: Potential Restructuring Candidates
Headline: Thinking through some pending items as 2Q wraps up; Pain is good, pain means you are still alive!
- Despite the narrative, Prospect is a restructuring and not a "refinancing." Absent direct liquidity support from MPW + the cancellation of the ~$112 million term loan and ~$150 million Foothills mortgage in exchange for very dubious equity in PHP, Prospect would have failed and likely been a BK. A strong argument can be made that it DID fail, and we do not believe MPW was forthcoming about its condition late last year. The ~$100 million mortgage upsize on Foothills was originated in May 2022, and Prospect clearly ran out of money by the fall.
- Prospect CT Sale to Yale, expected to close in 3Q23:
- We believe this sale will close, and have and continue to give MPW the benefit of ~$355 million of cash coming in from Yale.
- Again, it is important to remember that ~$50 million of cash is effectively being foregone by MPW and "deposited" as a middle step at Prospect in a two-step transaction where Yale buys the WholeCo and the rent is cancelled.
- Any recoup and booking of accrued but unpaid rent in 3Q should be treated as one-time.
- Re-commencement of partial rent for CA assets in September 2023, followed by full rent paid by March 2024:
- If we were advising the company, we would be telling the management team to set a "low bar" wherever possible and "beat" a low hurdle, so as to at least give the appearance that things are trending better. This management team will very likely do that, given past behavior and disclosure. In the end our view, and we believe this is shared by this management team, is that the business cannot survive long-term in it's current form unless the company can issue equity relatively attractively both near-term and over time. The only way to get the stock price higher at this point may be to deliver "upside surprises."
- The one area on Prospect, in our view, that fits this box is the CA portfolio which as of 1Q23 is still deferring rent but set to re-commence paying in some amount this September. We believe it is possible, and maybe even likely, that MPW tries to deliver an early "surprise" by announcing that the Prospect CA assets begin paying full rent earlier than previously announced. This equates to ~$43.3 million in annual cash rent, or ~$0.07/share.
- Facts:
- We have already given MPW credit for the CA assets paying rent in our model, which again shows the company borrowing ~$800 to $900 million over 2Q23 to 4Q24 with a very high degree of confidence absent additional liquidity measures.
- We estimate that commencement of full payment by the CA assets in September 2023 is the difference between having to borrow a net ~$835 million through year-end 2024 on the RCF vs. the ~$845 million in our model. This is an incremental ~$10 million of cash flow over the next year and a half, and to be clear would not solve any of MPW's liquidity or debt problems. Again, ~$1.4 billion matures in 1Q25 and we expect MPW to be a net borrower secularly through that point in time. It is very possible that MPW runs out of available liquidity by then.
- Moreover, Prospect has received the liquidity benefit of the ~$50 million PHP convert from MPW + the availability under the ~$75 million MPW debt facility, with another ~$50 million being deposited in the middle step from the Yale transaction upon close. This liquidity equates to nearly ~4 years of rent owed back to MPW on the CA assets. Think about that.
- So we would ask, what exactly would be solved here if MPW eclipses such a low bar? If the market takes it as a positive, so be it. But it is NOT a "silver bullet" by any stretch. It solves nothing, rather provides the management team a dubious opportunity to claim another "win" from what is an absolute disaster of an outcome at Prospect.
- MPW needs to raise capital. This is not a belief, this is a fact given the ~$1.4 billion maturity wall in 1Q25 and the mathematically certain cash burn between now and then. Basic math: prior peak 2021 operating cash flow (unachievable given asset sales and Prospect dilution) of ~$800 million versus annual dividends of ~$700 million and annual capital spend of ~$200 to $300 million in the middle. Options:
- Reduce the dividend: Needs to be done, only a question of "when" and what is the order of operations? MPW has not covered its dividend with internally-generated cash flow since at least 2011. Negative for the equity, credit positive for the bonds.
- Follow-on equity offerings, to the extent possible: We believe also need to be done, as the absolute dollar amount of leverage in the structure MUST be reduced given a likely structurally higher cost of debt capital. ~9-10x cash EBITDA leverage will not work with your cost of debt resetting from ~3% to ~9% or higher. Also negative for the equity, credit positive for the bonds. Long-term may ensure the survival of MPW in some form.
- Asset sales: Low likelihood given past track record and dilutive to cash flow. Also resurfaces adverse selection problem where remaining portfolio is of lower quality.
- Secured debt: Possible, but does not reduce absolute dollar leverage which needs to happen and would also be priced materially higher, most likely, than the in-place ~3% cost of debt. Also raises adverse selection problem along with potential cash traps, additional covenants, limitations on selling assets, etc. Negative for the equity, credit positive for the unsecured bonds.
- Do nothing and make a bet on lower interest rates: Good luck, we will call the undertaker for you and make an appointment.
- This may be just another way of saying that MPW needs to raise equity and reduce the dividend, in our view, in order to ensure the long-term survival of the company.
- Lastly, we think consensus FY23 and FY24 AFFO estimates are still too high, in our view. To the extent you can even rely upon AFFO with this company. How is it mathematically possible for AFFO to jump +10% or more sequentially from 2Q23 to 3Q23?
Figure 1: Hedgeye REITs Position Monitor
Source: Company Reports, FactSet, Hedgeye
Prior Notes:
6.26.23 - REMINDER | BLACK BOOK - ACTIVE SHORT DIGITAL REALTY @ 10AM ET ON 6.26.23 | (DLR)
6.23.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 6.23.23
6.19.23 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | ADDING REXR TO ACTIVE SHORT LIST | 6.19.23 | (REXR, ABR)
6.16.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 6.16.23
6.13.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXXIII | "A MASTERCLASS IN GASLIGHTING"| 6.13.23 | (MPW)
6.13.23 - UPDATE | EVENT INVITE | ACTIVE SHORT DLR BLACK BOOK PRESENTATION | (DLR)
6.12.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | STOPPED OUT ON ABR | 6.12.23 (ABR)
6.11.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | UPDATING UHAL NUMBERS FOLLOWING 10-K FILING | 6.11.23 | (UHAL)
6.9.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 6.9.23
6.8.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | DLR BOARD LETTER MAKES WAVES AT NAREIT | 6.8.23 (DLR, INVH, TCN, REXR)
6.6.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH NAREIT UPDATE NOT GREAT | 6.6.23 (INVH, AMH, AVB, IRT)
6.5.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | APARTMENT UPDATES, BOTH EQUITY & DEBT | 6.5.23 (ABR, AVB, EQR, ESS, UDR)
6.4.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | NAREIT DECKS ROLLING OUT | 6.4.23 | (MPW, REXR, ESS, AMH, INVH, CPT)
6.2.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 6.2.23
6.1.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXXI | ANOTHER TENANT FILES BK WITHIN A YEAR OF SLB | 6.1.23 | (MPW)
5.31.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UHAL DELAYS 2023 10-K FILING | 5.31.23 (UHAL, MPW)
5.29.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | QUI TAM JOINT DISCOVERY PLAN FILED | 5.29.23 | (INVH)
5.26.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 5.26.23
5.26.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SBAC OUR FAVORITE TAIL LONG IDEA | 5.26.23 (SBAC, BXP)
5.24.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXX | MORE PROSPECT RESTRUCTURING DETAILS EMERGE | 5.24.23 (MPW)
5.23.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXIX | ARTICLE FROM TAP ON MPW & STEWARD | 5.23.23 (MPW)
5.23.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UHAL MOVES EARNINGS + DEBT REFERENCE POINT | 5.23.23 (UHAL, AMT, DLR, MPW)
5.22.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | ADDING DLR TO ACTIVE SHORT LIST | 5.22.23 | (DLR, OFC, MPW)
5.19.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 5.19.23
5.18.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXVII| | SEC WHISTLEBLOWER CASE FILED IN MALTA ORDEAL | 5.18.23 (MPW)
5.17.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATING AMH ESTIMATES + PRIME DOWNGRADED | 5.17.23 (AMH, MPW)
5.16.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATING INVH ESTIMATES | 5.16.23 (CPT, INVH)
5.14.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | FLORIDA IMMIGRATION BILL's IMPACT ON CONSTRUCTION | 5.14.23 | (JOE)
5.12.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 5.12.23
5.11.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | QUI TAM SETTLEMENT INCOMING? | 5.11.23 (INVH)
5.11.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXVII | 1Q23 10-Q REVIEW + FULL CASH FLOW MODEL | 5.11.23 (MPW)
5.9.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | REMOVING EPR FROM ACTIVE SHORT LIST | 5.9.23 (EPR)
5.7.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | NOTES FROM THE ABR CALL + ADDING A PILE OF CASH | 5.7.23 | (ABR, EQC, SLG)
5.6.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXVI | COMING IN OVER THE TOP... | 5.6.23 (MPW)
5.5.23 - AMH 1Q23 RESULTS | 5.5.23 (AMH)
5.4.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH FILES TO DISMISS IMPLEADER CLAIMS | 5.4.23 (INVH)
5.4.23 - PSA 1Q23 RESULTS | 5.4.23 (PSA)
5.23.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH 1Q23 RESULTS + COMMONSPIRIT DEAL CLOSED | 5.2.23 (INVH, MPW, NSA, JOE)
4.28.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXV | 1Q23 REVIEW + 2023 PROXY REVIEW | 4.28.23 (MPW)
4.27.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | VNO DIVIDEND SUSPENSION + JOE ROC DECELERATION AS EXPECTED | 4.27.23 (VNO, JOE)
4.26.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXIV | GET SOME USEFUL INFO, ALONG WITH 1Q23 EARNINGS | 4.26.23 (MPW)
4.24.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | CBRE OFFICE SUBLEASE STATS | 4.24.23 (OFFICE)
4.20.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXII | NO, WE HAVEN'T FORGOTTEN YOU - 1Q23 PREVIEW | 4.20.23 (MPW)
4.20.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 4.20.23
4.18.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ABR LAWSUIT REVEALS POTENTIAL GOVERNANCE ISSUES | 4.18.23 (ABR, PLD)
4.17.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | APARTMENT RENT TRACKER + ANOTHER ABR SPONSOR ISSUE? | 4.17.23 (MF, ABR, MPW)
4.16.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | UPDATING SFR MODELS | 4.16.23 | (AMH, INVH, WY)
4.14.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 4.14.23
4.13.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATED BLACK BOOK CALENDAR INVITES | 4.13.23 (JOE, SBAC)
4.9.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | ADDING NSA TO ACTIVE LONG LIST | 4.9.23 | (NSA, MPW)
4.7.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXI | NO DAYS OFF... THE ONLY EASY DAY WAS YESTERDAY | 4.7.23 (MPW)
4.6.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 4.6.23
4.5.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ABR SPONSOR COVERAGE + INVH IMPLEADER RESPONSE | 4.5.23 (ABR, INVH)
4.5.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LX | SENATOR SENDS LETTER TO MPW & OTHERS | 4.5.23 (MPW)
4.4.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SELF-STORAGE ESTIMATES | 4.4.23 (PSA, CUBE)
4.3.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LVIV | LAWSUIT CHECK POINTS TO MORE STEWARD UNPAID BILLS | 4.3.23 (MPW)
4.3.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SIMILAR ROC STORY, BUT MOVING CUBE TO DMZ | 4.3.23 (CUBE, EXR, LSI, PSA, UHAL)
4.2.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | UPDATING STORAGE NUMBERS | 4.2.23 | (CUBE, EXR, PSA)
3.31.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | A FEW NEWS ITEMS BEFORE THE WEEKEND | 3.31.23 (WY, PGRE)
3.31.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 3.31.23
3.30.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | STANDARD "SIDE SHOW" IN QUI TAM CASE | 3.30.23 (INVH)
3.29.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | HEALTHSCOPE SALE DETAILS EMERGING | 3.29.23 (MPW, ABR)
3.26.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | GOOD TIMES ALL AROUND | 3.26.23 | (ABR, MPW, NTST)
3.24.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 3.24.23
3.23.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE - MOVING NTST TO DMZ | 3.23.23 (NTST)
3.23.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE - MOVING NTST TO DMZ | 3.23.23 (NTST)
3.21.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATE ON ABR - WORSE THAN WE FIRST PUBLISHED | 3.22.23 (ABR, SLG)
3.21.23 - SAVE THE DATE | BLACK BOOK PRESENTATION - ACTIVE SHORT ST. JOE CO. | 4.6.23 | (JOE)
3.19.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | SHORT ARBOR - BV DEGRADATION COMING | 3.19.23 | (ABR, SLG, VNO)
3.18.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 3.18.23
3.16.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | GOING BACK TO THE SECURITIZATIONS... | 3.16.23 (INVH)
3.15.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LVII | WHY A COMP CONSULTANT AS SENIOR ADVISOR TO CEO? | 3.15.23 (MPW)
3.15.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | TREMORS IN MREIT LAND | 3.15.23 (ABR, BRT, AMT, SBAC)
3.11.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | COMPLETING THE SBAC PIVOT | 3.11.23 (SBAC, MPW)
3.10.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 3.10.23
3.9.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LVI | "PROSPECT NEUTRAL" = "PROSPECT ZERO?" | 3.9.23 (MPW)
3.7.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LV | ANOTHER EXEC DEPARTURE AT STEWARD? | 3.7.23 (MPW)
3.6.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | MORE RESI CONFERENCE THOUGHTS... | 3.6.23 (AVB, ESS, INVH)
3.5.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | A FEW PRESENTATION CALL-OUTS | 3.5.23 | (MAA, CPT, EXR/LSI/PSA)
3.3.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 3.3.23
3.2.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | REMOVING RADI FROM ACTIVE LONG LIST | 3.2.23 (RADI, INVH)
3.2.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LIV | 2022 10-K FILING REVIEW | 3.2.23 (MPW)
3.1.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | THOUGHTS FOLLOWING AMC'S 4Q22 RESULTS | 3.1.23 (EPR)
2.28.23 - CORRECTION: REITS DAILY BRIEF | RADI SALE SAGA FINALLY CONCLUDING? | 2.28.23 (RADI)
2.27.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LIII | STOP WASTING OUR TIME | 2.27.23 (MPW)
2.26.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | EPR 4Q22 CALL NOTES | 2.26.23 | (EPR)
2.26.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LII | "FRAUD" IN MALTA | 2.26.23 (MPW)
2.24.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 2.24.23
2.24.23 - AMH 4Q22 RESULTS | DISAPPOINTING FY23 GUIDE SHOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE... | 2.24.23 (AMH)
2.24.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LI | MPW'S EQUITY REMAINS WORTHLESS | 2.24.23 (MPW)
2.23.23 - EPR 4Q22 RESULTS | BETTER 4Q, BUT NO FY23 OUTLOOK THE FOCUS | 2.23.23 (EPR)
2.22.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. L | NEW FILINGS IN TENET/STEWARD LITIGATION | 2.22.23 (MPW)
2.21.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | PSA 4Q22 + INVH CASE + OFFICE LOANS | 2.22.23 (PSA, INVH, OFFICE)
2.21.23 - NXRT 4Q22 RESULTS | MOVING TO SHORT BENCH | 2.21.23 (NXRT)
2.20.23 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | NXRT 4Q + STAG MODEL + MIKE PAPA WHISKEY | 2.20.23 | (NXRT, STAG, MPW)
2.17.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 2.17.23
2.16.23 - COLD 4Q22 RESULTS | 2.16.23 (COLD)
2.16.23 - STAG 4Q22 RESULTS | THINK THE FY23 GUIDE IS CONSERVATIVE | 2.16.23 (STAG)
2.16.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLIX | PUTTING ALL THE MOVING PARTS TOGETHER, AGAIN | 2.16.23 (MPW)
2.15.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLVIII | COMMONSPIRIT DISCLOSED THE PURCHASE PRICE | 2.15.23 (MPW)
2.15.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH EARNINGS + MPW FOLLOW-UP | 2.15.23 (INVH, MPW)
2.15.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLVI | NO-NONSENSE TAKE ON STEWARD UTAH | 2.15.23 (MPW)
2.13.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLV | TOO MUCH V'CNCY IN BIRMINGHAM... SO BUILD A HQ | 2.13.23 (MPW)
2.12.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | NEW ACTIVE SHORT ST. JOE COMPANY | 2.12.23 | (JOE, IRT, DOC)
2.10.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATED CPT NUMBERS + REGAL LEASE NEGOTIATIONS | 2.10.23 (CPT, EPR, O)
2.9.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLIV | ALL OF YOUR MODELS ARE BROKEN... | 2.9.23 (MPW)
2.9.23 - UHAL 3Q23 RESULTS | U-MISS'ED THE QUARTER | 2.9.23 (UHAL)
2.8.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ESS 4Q RESULTS + UHAL + POSITION MONITOR UPDATES | 2.8.23 (ESS, IRT, UHAL)
2.7.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | STORAGE DEAL + UDR RESULTS + INVH CLASS ACTION | 2.7.23 (LSI, PSA, INVH, UDR)
2.5.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | WHO BLINKS FIRST? WE THINK SELLERS AS WELL | 2.5.23 | (CPT, EPR, MPW)
2.3.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 2.3.23
2.3.23 - CPT 4Q22 RESULTS | OUTRIGHT MISS ON THE QUARTER AND FY23 GUIDE | 2.3.23 (CPT)
2.3.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLIII | CHERNOBYL IS REBUILDING | 2.3.23 (MPW)
2.2.23 - MAA 4Q22 RESULTS | MIXED BAG, BUT WE LEAN SLIGHT "MISS" ON FY23 GUIDE VS. EXPECTATIONS | (MAA)
2.1.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLII FLASH | STEWARD'S PRESIDENT DEPARTING | 2.1.23 (MPW)
2.1.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SFR "PRICING POWER" NARRATIVE TO BE TESTED | 2.1.23 (AMH, INVH, TCN)
1.31.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH CFO DEPARTURE + ADDING AMH TO ACTIVE SHORT LIST | 1.31.23 (AMH, INVH)
1.29.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | "RENTER BILL OF RIGHTS" + STEWARD WTF | 1.29.23 | (APARTMENTS, SFR, MPW)
1.27.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 1.27.23
1.27.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLI | REBUTTING THE SHASTA REBUTTAL | 1.27.23 (MPW)
1.26.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | RADI SALE PROCESS CONCLUDING NEXT MONTH? | 1.26.23 (EPR/AMC, RADI, SLG)
1.22.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POTENTIAL FY23 BEATS & MISSES | 1.22.23 (AMH, CUBE, INVH, IRM, MPW, STAG)
1.20.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 1.20.23
1.20.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | OUR NOTES FROM THE PLD CALL | 1.20.23 (PLD)
1.20.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XXXX | PROSPECT CROZER MIGHT BE A TOTAL LOSS | 1.20.23 (MPW)
1.16.23 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | MULTIFAMILY UNDERWRITING + EPR + PIPELINE | 1.16.23 (EPR, APARTMENTS, MPW)
1.13.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XXXIX | PIPELINE HEALTH IS SIMPLY INCREDIBLE | 1.13.23 (MPW)
1.13.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 1.13.23
1.13.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATING SFR #s FOR HIGHER NC PROPERTY TAXES | 1.13.23 (AMH, INVH)
1.12.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATES | 1.12.23 (AMT, HIW, MAA, NSA, SBAC, VTR)
1.10.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ADDING/REMOVING CUBE/SBAC TO ACTIVE SHORT LIST | 1.10.23 (CUBE, EXR, SBAC, WPC)
1.8.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | SD WHISTLEBLOWER CASE ACTIVITY + EPR FEEDBACK | 1.8.23 (INVH, EPR, MPW)
1.7.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XXXVIII | ADD'L STEWARD VENDOR COMPLAINTS | 1.7.23 (MPW)
1.6.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 1.6.23
1.6.23 - EVENT REPLAY | NEW ACTIVE SHORT EPR PROPERTIES BLACK BOOK | 1.6.23 (EPR)
1.4.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXVII | ARTICLE ON "PONZI HOSPITALS" | 1.4.23 (MPW)
1.4.23 - FLASH | JUDGE DENIES INVH'S MTD | 1.4.23 (INVH)
1.3.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INITIAL THOUGHTS ON EPR | 1.3.23 (EPR)
1.1.23 - EVENT INVITE UPDATE | EPR PROPERTIES (EPR) BLACK BOOK | THURSDAY, 1/5 @ 12:30 PM ET
12.30.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.30.22
12.26.22 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | MPW "CHEAT SHEET" | 12.26.22 (EPR, MPW)
12.23.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.23.22
12.22.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXVI | STEWARD ABL EXTENSION + OUR QUESTIONS | 12.22.22 (MPW)
12.22.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 12.22.22 (EPR)
12.20.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.20.22 (CUBE, EXR, LSI, NSA, PSA, MPW)
12.18.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | TAKING AN "L" ON HR | 12.18.22 (HR, DOC)
12.16.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXV | GOAL POSTS TORN DOWN? | 12.16.22 (MPW)
12.16.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.16.22
12.15.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | FLORIDA REINSURANCE BILL + MPW/STEWARD WTF? | 12.15.22 (AMH, INVH, TCN, MPW)
12.14.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | RENT CONTROL MEASURES + CEO CHANGE AT DLR | 12.14.22 (APARTMENTS, DLR)
12.14.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXIV | GOALPOSTS CONSTANTLY MOVING... | 12.14.22 (MPW)
12.12.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXIII | PIPELINE AUCTION CALLED OFF | 12.12.22 (MPW)
12.11.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | APARTMENT ITEMS + BREIT/SREIT + MPW MUSINGS | 12.11.22 (APARTMENTS, MPW)
12.9.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.9.22
12.9.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH TAKES OUT 2018-1 SECURITIZATION | 12.9.22 (INVH)
12.6.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXII | CIRCULATING THE CBS REPORT ON PROSPECT | 12.6.22 (MPW)
12.2.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.2.22
12.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | EQT "IN DISCUSSIONS" TO ACQUIRE RADI? | 12.1.22 (RADI)
11.29.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | HEALTHSCOPE PUSHED BACK + INDT BID | 11.29.22 (MPW, INDT)
11.28.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXX | PIPELINE BK UPDATE + STOCK IS NOT "CHEAP" | 11.28.22 (MPW)
11.27.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POSITION MONITOR + VAL HANDBOOK | 11.27.22 (DLR, EQIX, HR, DOC, SBAC, MPW)
11.22.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | RESI NEWS ITEMS | 11.22.22
11.20.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | UHAL NUMBERS + POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 11.20.22 (UHAL)
11.19.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXIX | UPON FURTHER REVIEW... | 11.19.22 (MPW)
11.18.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 11.18.22
11.16.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | NOTES FROM NAREIT DAY #1 | 11.16.22
11.15.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXVIII | IMPORTANT UPDATES FROM CMAX | 11.15.22 (MPW)
11.14.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXVII | HEALTHSCOPE PORTFOLIO SALE UPDATE | 11.14.22 (MPW)
11.13.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 11.13.22 (IRM, PGRE)
11.11.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 11.11.22
11.9.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | 3Q22 10-Q REVIEW | 11.9.22 (MPW)
11.9.22 - RADI 3Q22 RESULTS | 11.9.22
11.7.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | HEADING BACK TO CHERNOBYL... | 11.7.22 (MPW)
11.6.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE + SBAC REVIEW | 11.6.22 (ADC, O, NTST, SBAC)
11.5.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXIV | OPERATIONS SUSPENDED AT DCMH | 11.5.22 (MPW)
11.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SOME FOLLOW UP ITEMS, INCLUDING ON INVH | 11.4.22
11.4.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 11.4.22
11.3.22 - AMH 3Q22 RESULTS | MORE PROPERTY TAX MEDICINE | 11.3.22
11.3.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 11.3.22
11.2.22 - LSI 3Q22 RESULTS | LSI TO THE RESCUE? | 11.2.22 (LSI)
11.2.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | OCTOBER APARTMENT RENT TRACKER | 11.2.22
11.2.22 - EXR 3Q22 RESULTS | OOF | 11.2.22 (EXR)
11.2.22 - PSA 3Q22 RESULTS | 11.2.22 (PSA)
11.1.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXIII | REAL-TIME LOOK AT TEXARKANA | 11.1.22 (MPW)
11.1.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXII | PIPELINE UNSECURED CREDITOR OBJECTION | 11.1.22 (MPW)
10.31.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | WE MADE A MISTAKE - ADJUSTING INVH NUMBERS | 10.31.22 (INVH)
10.31.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXI | PIPELINE BK UPDATE | 10.31.22 (MPW)
10.30.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | UPDATED INVH MODEL ASSUMPTIONS | 10.30.22 (INVH, MPW)
10.28.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XX | BACK TO THAT DRY HOLE IN TX... | 10.28.22 (MPW)
10.28.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.28.22
10.28.22 - STAG 3Q22 RESULTS | 10.28.22 (STAG)
10.27.22 - INVH POST-3Q22 CALL THOUGHTS | 10.27.22 (INVH)
10.26.22 - MAA 3Q22 RESULTS | 10.27.22 (MAA)
10.26.22 - INVH 3Q22 RESULTS | PERHAPS THE WORST QTR IN RECENT MEMORY FOR A "BLUE CHIP" | 10.26.22 (INVH)
10.26.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XIX | 3Q22 PREVIEW | 10.26.22 (MPW)
10.26.22 - EQR 3Q22 RESULTS | ANOTHER DECEL IN LEASING SPREADS | 10.26.22 (EQR)
10.25.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | THOUGHTS ON NXRT'S 3Q22 | 10.25.22 (NXRT)
10.25.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XVIII | I'M THE CAPTAIN NOW... | (MPW)
10.25.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XVII | THAT'S SOME EXPENSIVE GRASS! | (MPW)
10.23.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | LOT'S TO READ ON SFR | 10.23.22 (VRE, AMH, INVH, TCN, MPW, SBAC)
10.21.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.21.22
10.21.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | THC NEGATIVE READ ACROSS FOR STEWARD ET AL | 10.21.22 (MPW)
10.20.22 - REITS CLIENT ALERT | 10.20.22 (MPW)
10.20.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3Q22 EARNINGS NOTES | 10.20.22 (REXR, CCI)
10.19.22 - CLARIFICATION ON MAA PORTION OF PRIOR NOTE | 10.19.22 (MAA)
10.19.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | NOTES FROM PLD'S 3Q + SUDDEN MAA CHANGE | 10.19.22 (PLD, MAA, MPW)
10.17.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ELS MISS + SFR CONSIDERATIONS AROUND QUARTERRA | 10.18.22 (ELS, AMH, INVH, TCN)
10.16.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | ADDING STAG TO ACTIVE LONG LIST | 10.16.22 (STAG, MPW)
10.15.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XV | RESPONDING TO CEO INTERVIEW | (MPW)
10.14.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.14.22
10.11.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.11.22 (CPT, INVH, MPW)
10.10.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XIV | WE CALL YOUR BLUFF | (MPW)
10.10.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XIII | HEALTHSCOPE SALE WOULD LIKELY BE DILUTIVE | (MPW)
10.9.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.9.22 (RE FUND FLOWS, MPW, VNO)
10.7.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.7.22
10.7.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XII | WHAT EXACTLY IS "CREF?" | (MPW)
10.6.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XI | PROSPECT BUYING BACK CT HOSPITALS FROM MPW | (MPW)
10.5.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | FACEBOOK TERMINATING 225 PARK AVE LEASE | 10.5.22 (GATEWAY OFFICE, MAA)
10.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | WHERE ARE INVH'S + SUI'S IAN UPDATES? | 10.4.22 (INVH, SUI, MPW)
10.3.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME X | TAKEAWAYS FROM INITIAL PIPELINE FILINGS | (MPW)
10.3.22 - FLASH | THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME IX | MPW's ~#12 TENANT FILES IN BK COURT | (MPW)
10.3.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ (ON MONDAY MORNING) | 10.3.22 (SBAC, WY)
10.1.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.1.22
9.30.22 - FLASH | (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME VIII - DID STEWARD JUST BLOW UP? | (MPW)
9.30.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME VII - NOTHING TO SAY? | (MPW)
9.29.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | DIVVY HOMES LAYOFFS / GENERAL EXTERNAL GROWTH SLOWDOW | 9.29.22 (AMH, INVH, TCN)
9.28.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | WEN STEWARD CREDIT FACILITY? | 9.28.22 (MPW, APARTMENTS)
9.28.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME VI - A FAMILY AFFAIR (MPW)
9.26.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | IAN MUCH MORE THREATENING | 9.26.22 (ELS, SUI, AMH, INVH)
9.25.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | TS IAN SWINGING WEST | 9.25.22 (RESIDENTIAL)
9.23.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME V - THE CURIOUS CASE OF DISAPPEARING WORK EXPERIENCE | 9.23.22
9.23.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 9.23.22
9.20.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME IV - SO... ABOUT THAT ~$335 MILLION LOAN | 9.20.22 (MPW)
9.18.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME III - I'M ON A BOAT! | 9.18.22 (MPW)
9.16.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK & POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 9.16.22 (STOR)
9.15.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME 2 - WHATS A WHISTLEBLOWER TO DO? | 9.15.22 (MPW)
9.15.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME 1 - SEMC NLRB COMPLAINT | 9.15.22 (MPW)
9.14.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 9.14.22 (CPT, MAA, NXRT)
9.13.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | RESIDENTIAL UPDATES FLOODING IN | 9.13.22 (AMH, INVH)
9.9.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 9.9.22
9.7.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF PART II | WHAT REALLY HAPPENED W/ WATSONVILLE? | 9.7.22 (MPW)
9.7.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | LOOK AT RENT CONTROL MEASURES ON THE NOV BALLOT | 9.7.22 (RESIDENTIAL)
9.5.22 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | INVH ADDED TO S&P 500 + MORE MPW THOUGHTS | 9.5.22 (INVH, MPW)
9.2.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 9.2.22
9.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF PART II | PROBABILITY UP THAT COMPLAINT GOES MULTI-STATE | 9.1.22 (INVH)
9.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATES | 9.1.22 (EQR, PGRE)
Please e-mail with any questions.
Rob Simone, CFA
Managing Director
Twitter: @HedgeyeREITs
