We are still in the early stages of Medicaid redeterminations and the data is about what you would expect from Medicaid programs. With those caveats, we can draw a few conclusions. First, most of the high population/highly urbanized states have not or are just beginning their redetermination process. This group includes California, Illinois, and New York which will begin redeterminations in July (mailing sent out in late May-June). Texas began its process in June.
Second, among those states that have begun redeterminations, the net enrollment losses are relatively small, perhaps a reflection of a softening labor market. Florida, for example, has an estimated enrollment for May of 5.4M versus a baseline of 5.7M or about 5% Although redeterminations are ongoing, so are new enrollments. In Ohio, an expansion state, the enrollment losses are about 1% through May.
We are still early in a 12 month game but one scenario to consider is that a worsening economy means lower net change than contemplated earlier in the year. Another, and one we have considered from the beginning is that children who have been eligible for CHIP were not moved from Medicaid during the Public Health Emergency.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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